Fresher legs will decide the first league clash in the FA Cup?

FC Bayern Munich are desperately looking for immediate reinforcements this winter transfer window. While Tuchel’s desired player João Palhinha was relatively quickly no longer an issue for the German record champions, there were increasing signs during the week that the current Bundesliga runners-up were keen to lure Newcastle captain Kieran Trippier to the Isar. Despite an official offer, negotiations broke down rather quickly, meaning that the England international, as well as the “Holding Six” from Portugal, will be on the pitch against each other in the FA Cup on Saturday evening.

In one of five first-leg clashes in this round of 32, fatigue is a potentially crucial factor. Before we go out on a limb and predict the outcome of the game between Fulham and Newcastle, it should be borne in mind that the Whites were only on the pitch on Wednesday night in the EFL Cup semi-final second leg and lost a lot of energy in their futile comeback against Liverpool. The Magpies, on the other hand, who are still short of substitutes, have had two weeks off and are now eager to make a comeback after the unusually long break.

While coach Eddie Howe is currently without many of his players, primarily due to injury, many other clubs are feeling uneasy about the absence of internationals for the Africa/Asia Cup. After the group stage of these two continental tournaments brought a few surprises, the final round continues this weekend.

Fulham – statistics & current form

Fulham Football Club have not had a particularly close or passionate liaison with the FA Cup over the past decade. Although the Londoners reached the quarter-finals of England’s most prestigious cup competition last season, the Whites failed to reach the fourth round at the latest in ten of their previous eleven attempts. In 2023/24, coach Marco Silva’s team are also in danger of being eliminated before the round of 16. At least that’s what the odds suggest for this weekend’s game between Fulham and Newcastle.

The bookmakers see the home side’s possible lack of freshness as particularly problematic, as they only had to face Liverpool in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final on Wednesday evening. There, Fulham had to make up a 1:2 deficit from the first leg, but ultimately failed to do so despite a performance of will. The home game against the Reds ended in a 1-1 draw, shattering the dream of winning the first ever national title in the club’s history. In addition to the physical component, the psychological one should not be underestimated. Within four days, the capital city club could throw away both chances of lifting the trophy

Fulham hoping for home strength again in the FA Cup

However, Silva’s side should at least be hopeful that they have been drawn at home again in this fourth round of the FA Cup. In the Premier League, the Cottagers have recorded 18 of their 24 points at home. Six of the ten matches played at home were won. There have also been four defeats and not a single draw. If you still want to bet that a home game for the Whites will end in a draw for the first time this season, you can pick up top odds of 3.60 between Fulham and Newcastle at Bet365.

All in all, we are a little more skeptical about the home side’s chances and also argue with their anything but good form. They have won just two of their last seven matches in all competitions. One of these was in the third round of the FA Cup at home against second division side Rotherham United, when Silva’s side did not cover themselves in glory with a 1-0 win.

Given that the Magpies are an opponent who are unlikely to give the hosts as much space in their transitional play as other top teams who rely on a more dominant style of play, the number of goals scored during the course of the game is also likely to be limited. In fact, only four of the 13 home games in all competitions this season have seen more than 3.5 goals scored. For the FA Cup match, the Under 3.5 therefore also appears to be a good basis for combined tips. To make matters worse, Bassey, Ballo-Toure and Iwobi are still important personnel options at the Africa Cup and coach Silva will probably be forced to make changes to the starting eleven anyway after the exhausting match against Liverpool.

Predicted Fulham line-up:
Rodak; Tete, Diop, Ream, Robinson; Reed, Palhinha; Wilson, Pereira, Decordova-Reid; Jimenez

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Unlike Fulham, Newcastle United Football Club have had a whole two weeks to catch their breath, recharge their batteries and get ready for the upcoming phase. This break was a real blessing for the Magpies, who were plagued by injuries and looked overplayed on several occasions in December. We therefore dare to predict ahead of the Fulham v Newcastle clash that the visitors will not be rusty, but that we can instead expect a fresher Howe side that should have a qualitative advantage.

There are much bigger question marks over their form, as the Champions League contenders have conceded six defeats in the last seven matchdays in the Premier League alone. The triple and quadruple burden has had an extremely negative impact on last year’s fourth-placed team. Among other things, Newcastle have also lost their last four PL away games and have picked up just two meagre points from their last six visits to the English top flight.

Newcastle are focusing heavily on the FA Cup this season

However, they were able to master their compulsory task in the third round of the FA Cup with a 3-0 win at second division side Sunderland. The really good performance in the last league game to date against reigning champions Manchester City (2:3) also underlines the fact that the Black & Whites are in better shape than they were last month.

Perhaps even more serious, however, is a curious cup statistic. In fact, the Magpies could become the first first division side in the world’s oldest cup competition to lose eight (!) consecutive games against league rivals. The Black & Whites have always failed to reach the third round in the last three years, but the stakes are different in 2023/24. Following their elimination from the European Cup and a rather disappointing season in the Premier League so far, winning the FA Cup could possibly be their only chance of competing internationally in 2024/25.

However, the personnel situation remains tense. Pope, Joelinton, Anderson, Willock, Barnes, Targett, Murphy and probably Callum Wilson will be missing. Nevertheless, the starting line-up will meet the highest national standards. You can also be sure that Coach Howe will bring the best available players onto the pitch after the 14-day break. With a perhaps slightly more cautious approach, an away win after 90 minutes is definitely within the realms of possibility.

Predicted Newcastle line-up:
Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Miley; Almiron, Isak, Gordon

Fulham – Newcastle head-to-head / H2H record

The two clubs first faced each other in the Premier League in mid-December. Newcastle won 3-0 in front of their home crowd thanks to a strong second half, making it the Magpies’ only win in their last seven PL matches. Overall, Newcastle have now won four league games in a row against the Whites and lost just once in their last ten head-to-head meetings. Even more impressive is Newcastle’s FA Cup record, which they lead 4-0. However, the last meeting in 1960 will be remembered primarily by the players’ grandparents.

Fulham – Newcastle betting tip

An interesting cup tie between two first division teams is scheduled for Saturday evening at Craven Cottage at 20:00 German time. Fulham will host Newcastle. Judging by the betting odds, the visitors have the better chance of reaching the last 16. This is despite the fact that the Magpies have recently failed to reach the third round of the FA Cup three times in a row and have lost their last seven first-leg matches in England’s most important cup competition.

However, as we all know, negative streaks are there to be ended. The starting position in this respect is good, because while last year’s fourth-placed side have had two weeks off, have been able to heal their aches and pains and, above all, regain their strength after an intensive few months, the Whites were only on the pitch on Wednesday evening and definitely suffered a loss of substance in the 1-1 draw against Liverpool. In view of the resulting freshness advantage in favor of the Black & Whites, we agree with the bookmakers’ assessment

We therefore try the bet on the away win between Fulham and Newcastle and get a solid 2.30 at the top. We choose five out of a possible ten units as the stake and also recommend that particularly risk-averse bettors consider the double result HTX/FT1. On the one hand, such a bet would also have gone through in the last league clash in mid-December, and on the other hand, the Howe eleven could better exploit the aforementioned advantages as the game progresses and steer the match in their own direction. The 5.50 on offer definitely contains value and is therefore also included in our top tip table