Can Sport-Club feel the SGE’s new heavy-metal style?

On Thursday evening, SC Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt were still on the road in other European countries. On Sunday afternoon, the two Eurofighters will now face each other in the 22nd matchday in the Bundesliga. Both teams were able to take home good results in their away games in France and Belgium respectively and have established a promising starting position for the return games next week. SGE secured a respectable 2-2 draw at Royale Union St. Gilloise, while SCF were held to a 0-0 draw after a strong away game in Lens

Before the focus returns to the aforementioned second legs on Monday, there is also a lot at stake in the direct Bundesliga clash. After all, they are neighbors in the table who are desperate to qualify for international business again via the league. Currently in sixth place, Hesse have four points more to their name, meaning that the pressure is on Sport-Club. If Freiburg and Frankfurt even manage to pull off a three-pointer, the Breisgauers will have to bake smaller rolls in the coming weeks, especially as seventh place in the final standings would not be enough for Europe 2024/25 as things stand

In general, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Freiburg and Frankfurt, as both teams have recently struggled in the Bundesliga. Streich’s side have lost three in a row and conceded a whopping nine goals in the process. Streich’s counterpart Dino Toppmöller and his Eagles failed to score in two solvable away games in Cologne and Darmstadt. The mood in the Main metropolis is threatening to change, especially as there is no lack of individual quality in the squad. However, the former Nagelsmann assistant will also have to do without one of his most important players on Sunday…

Freiburg – statistics & current form

Freiburg had certainly imagined a different start to the 2024 soccer year. The Breisgau side have played five matches in the Bundesliga since the winter break, picking up just four meagre points in the process. What’s more, these are from the first two matches, meaning that Sport-Club recently slipped into a minor crisis with three defeats in a row.

Even more worrying than the defeats themselves, however, were the poor performances and the eleven goals conceded in a total of four games in the second half of the season. The seventh-placed team in the table, which has conceded three goals in three consecutive league games, currently has the weakest defense in the German top flight.

Nevertheless, coach Christian Streich’s charges showed a remarkable reaction against the runners-up from northern France on Thursday evening. In the end, the 0-0 draw even felt like a defeat, as Sallai and Co. missed a number of high-caliber chances and actually deserved to win. Nevertheless, the performance on show gives us hope that the important Bundesliga match on Sunday afternoon can also be played successfully

Does Streich also trust the new back three in the league?

The bookmakers are confident that Sport-Club will get a good result. This is at least underlined by the Freiburg vs Frankfurt odds on the three-way market. The 2.40 on a home win for the Black Forest side implies a probability of 41%, which is partly due to their decent record in front of a home crowd. Streich’s side have won half of all their home matches in the Bundesliga so far (five wins, three draws, two defeats). Incidentally, a total of 31 goals have been scored in ten matches at Europa-Park-Stadion, an average of 3.1 goals per match.

This is one of the reasons why we are pushing for a prediction of over 2.5 in the Freiburg v Frankfurt chasing duel. Four times in a row, a corresponding bet involving Sport-Club would have gone through. The fact that the personnel situation at the seventh-placed team in the table from the south of Germany remains tense, especially in defense, also speaks for a high-scoring encounter.

With Ginter and Lienhart, the regular central defense is missing. At least Manuel Gulde’s injury turned out to be relatively harmless, meaning that he was deployed alongside temporary defenders Keitel and Kübler in the newly formed back three on Thursday. It remains to be seen whether coach Streich will once again start in a 3-4-3 or switch to his usual back four. However, the approach will not change much because, as already mentioned, the seventh-placed team in the table needs at best a three-pointer in the race for the international starting places if they are not to lose sight of SGE.

Predicted Freiburg line-up:

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

21 matchdays have been played in the Bundesliga and Dino Toppmöller still hasn’t quite warmed to the Frankfurt fans. While the popular former coach Oliver Glasner has been in charge at Crystal Palace since Thursday, Toppmöller is still struggling with the huge expectations in the German financial metropolis. At the latest with the prominent and expensive winter transfers, the management has made it clear that sixth place in the league remains the minimum target and that the coach will also be judged on success in the Conference League.

Although everything seems to be in order in the table and the Hessians have the opportunity to distance themselves from a direct rival on Sunday afternoon, the way SGE is currently playing soccer is causing discussion. There is a lack of creativity with the ball, penetration in the final third and a clear signature from the coach. It is no coincidence that sporting director Krösche recently called for “more heavy metal and less classical music”. On Thursday evening, the team immediately did him this favor and earned a respectable 2:2 draw at Belgian league leaders Royale Union SG, which significantly increased their chances of reaching the round of 16

No party in Frankfurt without Koch?

Since the grace period finally seems to be over and Eintracht are desperate to get back on track after just one win from their last four league games, we expect a spirited performance away from home. At least more spirited than in the 2-0 defeat in the last away game at 1. FC Köln and the 2-2 draw in Darmstadt around three weeks ago. In a total of eleven away games, the Black & Red & Whites have only managed three wins (3-4-4), which is why we are focusing on the odds on a goal bet rather than the outcome of the game in the upcoming match between Freiburg and Frankfurt.

It should be noted that, despite the justified criticism of the often unimaginative offense, in six of the past eight BL matches involving SGE, the over 2.5 would have gone through. There could also be more goals than expected on Sunday, especially as Frankfurt’s defensive boss Robin Koch will be missing due to a yellow card suspension. The potential European Championship contender is Eintracht’s best duelist and will be unavailable to coach Toppmöller for the third time this season. The first two games without Koch were a 2:2 draw against Bremen and a 1:2 defeat against VfB Stuttgart.

Predicted Frankfurt line-up:

Freiburg – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H balance

Freiburg will face Frankfurt for the 40th time in the German top flight this weekend. With 16 wins, nine draws and 14 defeats to date, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge. What is also exciting is that since the Sport-Club were promoted for the first time in 1993, the Hessians have only managed to pick up more points against Werder Bremen than against the Breisgauers. The first leg, meanwhile, was a poor display of soccer and ended in a goalless draw. However, it was only one of two matches in the last seven BL meetings between these teams in which fewer than three goals were scored. So there is definitely hope for a lively match on Sunday afternoon

Freiburg – Frankfurt tip

As a rule, lower odds are offered on over 2.5 goals in a Bundesliga match compared to an under bet. The situation is different in the table chasing duel this Sunday at Europa-Park-Stadion in Breisgau. In the match between seventh and sixth in the table, Freiburg vs. Frankfurt, the betting odds on the over/under market point to a rather tough match with a maximum of two goals in the course of the game.

The reasons for this are obvious, as both teams have struggled in the Bundesliga recently. SGE have been struggling to get their PS on the road for weeks/months now, while Sport-Club have often failed to capitalize on their own chances recently. What’s more, the dismal first leg also ended in a goalless draw.

The fact that we still see value in the betting for three or more goals after 90 minutes for the upcoming clash between Freiburg and Frankfurt is easy to explain. On the one hand, Freiburg have conceded eleven goals in their last four BL matches. On the other hand, Eintracht could also have a rethink after the “heavy metal” call from sporting director Krösche. The 2:2 draw in the Europa League would certainly suggest this. In addition, both sides are without key players in defense