Will the lights go out at Goodison Park?
Late on Sunday afternoon, the motherland of football concludes the 2022/23 Premier League season. The majority of the decisions have already been made and basically the only thing left to decide is the final European Cup starter and relegation spots two and three.
Should Everton’s bet on a home win against Bournemouth in the relegation battle be correct, the relegation question would be settled.
The Toffees are currently above the drop zone, two points clear of rivals Leicester City and Leeds United. Only if both rivals win and Everton lose to the already-rescued Cheries from Bournemouth would Liverpool’s local rivals have to make the bitter journey to the Championship. Due to the starting situation, the bookmakers see the prediction of a home win for Everton against Bournemouth as very likely. Maximum odds of 1.50 are offered for the success of the 17th placed team in the table.
Everton – Statistics & current form
Those in the Toffees camp who believed that last season represented the nadir of the recent past were proved wrong. Regardless of the outcome of the last fixture, Everton Football Club will have their lowest points tally since the Premier League was introduced this season. Just 33 points are on the credit side. Should league survival be secured on Sunday, it will be a case of “wipe your mouth and move on”.
Defence with big problems
With “only” 57 goals conceded in the 37 league games so far, the Toffees have quite a decent defensive record for a relegation candidate. In comparison, the visitors from Bournemouth have already conceded 70 goals. Nevertheless, the defence has not been the showpiece of Sean Dyche’s team in recent weeks. None of the last four home games was won (one draw, three defeats). These three defeats were the last in a row and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford had to make ten saves.
Ten goals were also conceded on the last matchday in the last two years. In 2021/22 they lost 5-1 to Arsenal and the year before they lost 5-0 to Manchester City. In the last six seasons Everton have failed to record a final-day win. Nevertheless, on Sunday’s Everton vs Bournemouth, the low odds for the home win are justified, because compared to recent years, the last league game is not just a chore, but forward-looking.
Bournemouth – Statistics & current form
For the eighth time in the history of the English Premier League, a team has stayed in the division by conceding 70 or more goals in a season. The Cherries have revealed a number of defensive deficiencies over the course of the season, but have still picked up enough points to remain in the Premier League in 2023/24. After a disastrous start to the season, including the sacking of the manager, Gary O’Neil led the club into safe territory. The best case scenario is to even finish the season in a strong 13th place in the table.
Champagne or seltzer
In recent months, betting on the draw in games involving the promoted side has not been a good decision. None of the last 15 Premier League games ended in a draw. Seven times the Cherries celebrated a victory, eight times the respective opponent was allowed to cheer. Among other things, the O’Neil eleven has lost all of its last three league games. It seems as if the players have lost all excitement after the league stay was fixed and no longer perform with the last consistency. After a strong April (five victories in seven games), May has so far only seen defeats.
Will the turnaround actually be achieved in the last game? Hard to imagine. That’s why we can’t expect any great resistance. Therefore, the low betting odds on a home win are recommended for Everton vs. Recent results do not necessarily suggest an ‘over’ game, but Bournemouth have scored three times in each of their last three games against Everton.
Everton – Bournemouth Direct Comparison / H2H Record
Recent results between the two teams do not support the bookies’ assessment. In each of the last three games between Everton and Bournemouth, betting on the Cherries has been the correct decision. Bournemouth have scored three goals in each of the games. Among them, Everton conceded a home defeat to AFC Bournemouth on the final matchday of the 2019/20 season. A scenario which could mean relegation in the worst-case scenario on Sunday.
Everton – Bournemouth Tip
For many years Everton wanted to break into the top six and spent countless millions. That goal was never achieved and now the club may be facing bankruptcy. The worst-case scenario can almost certainly be avoided, as it is not likely that the two rivals will win either.
However, Dyche’s eleven will hardly want to look at the competition, but will want to fulfil their own tasks. If the Everton vs Bournemouth home win betting is correct, then the Toffees will be in the Premier League next year as well.
The Cherries are a fearful opponent, having lost their last three direct duels, but the O’Neil team has not performed well in recent weeks, losing three in a row.
After two goalless games, at least the chances of scoring are good, as the Everton defence has been full of holes lately. The visitors have nothing to lose and can play freely, and the way forward is usually easier than the way back. That’s why the prediction for Everton vs. Bournemouth is for both teams to score. Everton must win, but do not have the defensive stability to do so without conceding a goal.
