Bilbao will be looking to go far in the cup again
Looking back over the past three seasons, Athletic Bilbao have undoubtedly been one of the most successful Spanish sides in the Copa del Rey. In 2019/20 and 2020/21, the Basques reached the final, and in the previous year they reached the semi-finals. However, they did not win the title.
Nevertheless, it has become abundantly clear in the past that ‘Los Leones’ take the national cup competition very seriously and see it as their best chance of adding a trophy to their club’s display case in the short to medium term. As a result, betting on an away win after regular time should be a mere formality between Eldense and Athletic Bilbao.
However, the home side from Alicante should by no means be underestimated. As a promoted team, the Blue and Reds currently lead the standings in Spain’s third division and are aiming for a breakthrough. In addition, they eliminated a second-division team, Burgos, in the previous round.
Therefore, it might even be an option to combine the prediction of a win by the favourites with an under-bet before the clash between Eldense and Athletic Bilbao. We do not necessarily believe that the visitors will win by a landslide.
Eldense – Statistics & current form
The club Deportivo Eldense was once founded over 100 years ago by fans of FC Barcelona. At that time, hardly anyone could have imagined that the club would still be on the map of Spanish club football in the 21st century. Incidentally, it was less than 20 years ago that the men from the autonomous region of Valencia even had a taste of second division football. They never made it higher than that, however.
Currently, the Azulgranas are going through another very positive phase. As a promoted team, CDE is currently leading the table in the third division. With an impressive record of nine wins, four draws and four defeats, they are two points ahead of second-placed Castellón. A run to the second division seems possible, especially if one takes a closer look at their home strength.
Eldense will park the bus in front of the goal
Eldense are the only team in the Primera RFEF Grupo 2 not to have lost a single match at home. They have won six matches and drawn three. In addition, they have a very solid defence, conceding only five goals in nine home matches and are also the league leaders with only 13 goals conceded after 17 matches.
Moreover, coach Fernando Estévez’s team, which has a good and prominent squad for a third division team, has already proven in the first two cup rounds that they are a force to be reckoned with. The 1-0 win against second-division Burgos in particular underlines the fact that the Blue and Reds, who also owe their club colours to the Barcelona affinity of their founders, will not be cannon fodder.
And because the underdogs have reached the third round of the King’s Cup for only the second time in their own club history, it doesn’t take a prophet to state that this is the most important match in the club’s history for the hosts. We expect a highly motivated home team that wants to stay without conceding a goal for as long as possible. Therefore, we can well imagine playing the odds on the under 2.5 or the double result HTX/FT2 between Eldense and Athletic Bilbao.
Predicted line-up of Eldense:
Stamatakis – Martinez, Gonzalez, Hernandez, Estacio – Ortuno, Pardo – Soberon, Montes, Nieto – Lopez
Last matches played by Eldense:
Copa del Rey
23/12/2022 – Eldense 1 – 0 Burgos CF
Primera Federacion – Group 2
18/12/2022 – Eldense 4 – 0 CD Calahorra
10/12/2022 – Eldense 1 – 1 SD Amorebieta
08/12/2022 – Barca Atletic 1 – 0 Eldense
03/12/2022 – Eldense 2 – 1 Logrones
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Bilbao have turned into a real cup team over the last two decades. Since the 2008/09 season, the Basques have reached the Copa del Rey final five times (!), but have never been able to reward themselves with the title. A semi-final, two quarter-finals and various trips to the round of 16 round off the impressive cup record of the Lions in the recent past.
Although previous years’ successes are of course no reliable standard for the upcoming 2022/23 performance, we still rate the likelihood of a surprise on Thursday night as relatively low.
The Basques have a stable defence
The pronounced role as favourites is not only due to the strong cup performances of the past days, but also to the good season in La Liga so far. As fifth in the table, the Basques are currently only two points off a Champions League place.
The re-start after the World Cup break could be described as successful with a goalless draw at Betis Sevilla, especially as coach Ernesto Valverde’s team still has a meagre four defeats in 15 league games.
The team’s showpiece is clearly its defence, which, with 14 goals conceded, is exactly the same as Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid. Only three teams have conceded fewer goals than ‘Los Leones’ so far this season.
This is one of the reasons why the prediction of an away win in combination with a maximum of three goals in the match between Eldense and Athletic Bilbao combines many of our approaches. All results of 1:0, 2:0, 2:1 and 3:0 would be covered by this bet. By the way, the first two cup tasks in the current season were mastered with 2:0 and 1:0 away from home…
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Agirrezabala – Berchiche, Vivian, Alvarez, de Marcos – Zarraga, Vesga – Guruzeta, Sancet, Williams – Garcia
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – Sestao 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Club friendlies
18/12/2022 – Udinese 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
16/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 0 Burgos CF
12/12/2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 0 CD Guadalajara
Eldense – Athletic Bilbao Direct comparison / H2H record
Three matches CD Eldense have played against Athletic Bilbao in club history so far, with two wins (one draw). However, these were duels against the reserves of the traditional Basque club. The fourth-division club will face the senior team for the first time on Thursday evening.
Eldense – Athletic Bilbao Tip
When a third division promoted side meets a two-time finalist in the Copa del Rey in the past three years, the starting position is clear. CD Eldense are the clear underdogs against Athletic Bilbao according to the betting odds, despite the fact that the home side also lead the standings in the new league after promotion and have every hope of making it through.
However, this remarkable performance does not change the obvious difference in quality between the two squads. Moreover, the Basques have had a very good season in La Liga so far. Only four defeats in 15 games and only three other teams have conceded fewer goals than Valverde’s team, who occupy fifth place in the intermediate rankings.
As ‘Los Leones’ have been comfortable in cup competitions in the past, rarely losing out to blatant underdogs, there is a strong case for the Black, White and Reds to come out on top this time around as well. Before the Eldense vs. Athletic Bilbao match, we combine our tip on the away win with the Under 3.5 and ultimately get appealing top odds of 2.20, which is worth five units to us as a bet.
