Will BVB finally find the right solutions at the third attempt against VfB?
At Borussia Dortmund, the anticipation of the upcoming quarter-final against Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League is already dominating. The Black & Yellows will first face the Spanish capital next Wednesday before the semi-finalists are decided the following Tuesday at Signal Iduna Park. Although the chance to reach the final round of the top flight for the first time since 2012/13 is definitely there, there is – strictly speaking – much more at stake in the Bundesliga. Potentially missing out on the 2024/25 CL group stage must be avoided as a matter of urgency
A very important match awaits BVB on Saturday evening. Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will face off at their own stadium in the top match of the table on matchday 28. The lower odds on the home side are primarily due to the home advantage of Terzic’s team. If you take the two matches so far this season as a yardstick, a possible favorite role in favor of VfB would be by no means unfounded. The Swabians won 2:1 in the league and recorded a commanding 2:0 victory in the round of 16 of the DFB Cup. Will Borussia now find solutions against the third-placed team for the first time at the third attempt?
Julian Nagelsmann will in all likelihood be among the 80,000 or so spectators in the sold-out Dortmund soccer temple, as no other BL match this weekend will give the national coach the chance to see so many potential European Championship players live. While Stuttgart recently sent a quartet of players to the DFB, BVB professional Niclas Füllkrug acted as a lone wolf for his club.
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Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund had to wait almost ten years for a Bundesliga victory in Munich. Last weekend, the long dry spell finally came to an end. The Black & Yellows won 2:0 at the Allianz Arena and thus ensured the final preliminary decision in the race for the championship. However, the three points were far more important in that their direct rivals from Leipzig (0:0 against Mainz) and Stuttgart (3:3 against Heidenheim) dropped points. As a result, they remain in fourth place in the battle for the coveted Champions League tickets. They are three points ahead of RB Leipzig and four points behind third-placed Stuttgart.
According to media reports, the Ruhr outfit have even set themselves the goal of overtaking the Swabians in the standings. In order to make significant progress in this endeavor, it would logically be enormously helpful if the odds on a home win between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart were to come true on Saturday evening. On the three-way market, a top price of 2.25 is currently being offered on a three-pointer for the hosts. The betting providers with a German license are therefore also finding it difficult to decisively acknowledge Borussia’s status as favourites
Will BVB remain unbeaten for the sixth time in a row?
The upward trend in form since the winter break definitely gives hope of a positive result. BVB have not only won their last five competitive matches, but have also lost just one of their last 16 matches in all competitions (9-6-1). Only the undisputed leaders Bayer Leverkusen have collected more points than Edin Terzic’s team in the second half of the season, who also have the best defense in the second half of the German top flight with only seven goals conceded
Another striking statistic relates to the first half, as the club has scored at least one goal in the first half in ten out of eleven BL matches in 2024. Over the entire season, Terzic’s team only failed to score in the first 45 minutes in six of 27 league matches. In as many as 16 cases, the over 1.5 (1st half) would have paid off. This is one of the reasons why we are not averse to considering the odds for two or more goals before the break in the Dortmund v VfB Stuttgart clash on Saturday evening.
In terms of personnel, there are still one or two question marks. Coach Edin Terzic, who already announced in the press conference that he might rotate his squad with a view to two English weeks, will probably have to make do without Donyell Malen again, who was unable to train without pain during the week. Instead, Sabitzer will return from suspension and Kobel from injury. In general, the BVB coach has great respect for the opponent, but wants to show a completely different, more active face with his charges than in the passive performance in the cup game at the beginning of December.
Likely Dortmund line-up:
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
At the risk of repeating ourselves: VfB Stuttgart are the positive surprise of the current Bundesliga season. While the Swabians had to avert the threat of relegation to the second tier in the previous season via relegation, there are now increasing signs that coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team will be able to get a taste of the top flight in the coming season. However, the day should not be praised before the evening, because what can happen if you think you are safe too early became clear last Sunday. Despite leading 2-0 and trailing 3-2 at one stage, Stuttgart were ultimately lucky to have at least kept a point at home against Heidenheim.
At least they were able to extend their unbeaten run in the Bundesliga. The Swabians have now lost none of their last nine Bundesliga matches. 23 of a possible 27 points have been scored in this period. In the second half of the season, the third-placed team has therefore scored just as many points as their upcoming opponents from the Pott. It should also be emphasized that no other first division team has scored more goals than VfB in the second half of the season. 25 goals are worthy of all honours, especially when you consider that Guirassy, Undav and Co. scored at least twice in eight of the ten matches mentioned.
The immense offensive power in combination with the existing self-confidence and the fact that the visitors will definitely be given space to switch gears in an away match at Signal Iduna Park under normal circumstances, leads us to predict a few goals between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart during the course of the match. A combination of the handicap VfB Stuttgart (+2) including over 2.5 goals, for example, is quoted at 1.50 in the Betano sports betting app.
How will VfB Stuttgart replace defensive boss Waldemar Anton?
Like BVB, Stuttgart have been good for goals in the first 45 minutes time and again in recent weeks. In eight of the last nine BL matches, VfB have scored at least one goal before the break. Over the entire season, there have been twelve first halfs with over 1.5 goals, so the attractive odds of 2.03 at Intertops for at least two goals in the first half on Saturday evening are definitely appealing. You also have the option of receiving the Intertops freebet without a deposit with the aforementioned provider.
Finally, we turn our attention to the personnel situation for the visitors, which poses a challenge for coach Hoeneß this weekend. Chief defender Waldemar Anton will not be available due to a yellow card suspension. Zagadou is still injured, forcing the nephew of Bayern boss Uli to improvise. Stergiou would be the true-to-position solution in central defense. However, it is also conceivable that Karazor will move into the starting eleven and Mo Dahoud will keep his place on the double-six. However, the outstanding positional play in possession with great counter-movements and creative solutions in the final third will not suffer from this loss.
Predicted line-up of VfB Stuttgart:
Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart head-to-head comparison / H2H result
This is the 108th time the traditional clubs have faced each other in the German top flight. In total, BVB still has the edge with 47 wins compared to 41 defeats. In 2023/24, however, the Swabians reduced their deficit in the head-to-head, as the men from Bad Cannstatt won the first leg 2:1 at home (half-time: 1:1). In the round of 16 of the DFB Cup, Stuttgart followed up with a 2-0 win on St. Nicholas Day, giving the Black & Yellows no chance at all on that cold December evening. On Saturday evening, however, the omens are different, as BVB are at home. Borussia have only lost one of their last 14 competitive matches at home against Stuttgart (8-5-1)
Dortmund – VfB Stuttgart betting tip
In recent years, it has rarely been so complicated to identify a suitable betting tip between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart. Most of the time, the roles were clearly distributed in advance, with the Swabians usually the clear underdogs and BVB clearly favored. Everything is different in 2023/24. Coach Sebastian Hoeneß’ team is still four points ahead of Borussia in the standings. The visitors from the south could therefore certainly live well with a draw at Signal Iduna Park. However, anyone who believes that this objective goes hand in hand with a wait-and-see and reactive VfB team will be disappointed. Stuttgart have set themselves the target of controlling the match at the Champions League quarter-finalists.
As the Black & Yellows have learned many lessons from the two previous clashes this season and now benefit from home advantage, we can probably expect a lively and attacking top-of-the-table match. BVB have been in great form of late, winning five competitive matches in a row and will be looking to further improve their starting position in the race for the CL places. Stuttgart, meanwhile, have the best second-half attack in the Bundesliga and have not lost in nine league matches. There is plenty of self-confidence on both sides
In view of the fact that the statistics also play a role and have recently attested to the clubs’ particular (offensive) strength in the first half, we have decided to play the betting odds on at least two goals in the first 45 minutes between Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart. We play the 2.03 offered by Intertops with five units.
