Wild back and forth between two reeling boxers?

Football can be really cruel sometimes. Feel free to ask the supporters of Union Berlin. The Eisernen had everything under control for 40 minutes against Braga in their Champions League home debut at the Olympiastadion, deservedly leading 2-0 thanks to a brace from Sheraldo Becker, but then for some inexplicable reason completely lost control of the game. The Portuguese first equalised at 2:2 and finally, almost with the last action of the game, celebrated a happy 3:2 away win.

For the Köpenicker it was already the sixth (!) defeat in a row in a must-win match, which inevitably does something to the players’ heads. That is one of the reasons why the bookmakers with a German licence are apparently pretty sure that the Fischer eleven will not be able to score anything at the sold-out Signal Iduna Park this weekend. In the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin clash, betting on a surprise coup for the capital city team yields top odds of 5.40, which corresponds to a probability of less than 20%.

Borussia Dortmund were also unable to secure a three-goal win at home against AC Milan during the week. The Black and Yellows put in a solid performance against last year’s semi-finalists from the fashionable city, but Brandt, Malen and Co. often made the wrong decisions in the final third. The 0:0, which doesn’t really help in the strong CL group, was the logical consequence.

In the following paragraphs, you can read why we are predicting a relatively high-scoring and lively match for the upcoming Bundesliga clash between Dortmund and Union Berlin. By the way, kick-off at Borussia’s football temple is on Saturday at 15:30.

Dortmund – statistics & current form

For the first time since 2018/19, Borussia Dortmund are still unbeaten after the first six matchdays in the Bundesliga. They have won four matches and drawn two so far. After an unsuccessful start with only one three-pointer from the first three games, coach Edin Terzic’s team has recently achieved three successes in league play. In fourth place, just two points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen, the Black and Yellows are on target in the standings. In terms of performance, however, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

In all three of the victories mentioned above, BVB was not really convincing from a footballing point of view. Nevertheless, it is also a quality to score goals at the right moments and to win games that are hanging in the balance. This almost happened on Wednesday evening in the top flight, although the reigning runners-up were far too sloppy with the numerous situations in the final third.

As against Paris St. Germain, Borussia again failed to score a goal of its own. In the league, things are going much better with twelve goals in six matches, but the renowned striker trio of Füllkrug/Haller/Moukoko have only scored one goal so far.

The home strength makes BVB the favourites

However, if you put the statistics in the background for the time being and judge exclusively what you have seen, you will probably come to the conclusion that there could/must have been many more goals in all the games with BVB involvement. Both for Dortmund and for the respective opponents. Although the visitors from Köpenick certainly don’t have the greatest self-confidence at Signal Iduna Park, they can definitely be expected to score against the black-yellow defence, which in many cases defends very riskily.

Moreover, because the multiple German champions have scored in 54 consecutive home league matches and have not lost any of their last 18 home matches in the German top flight, it is obvious to consider odds of over 2.5 in the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin clash.

It will also be exciting to see which team Edin Terzic will send out on the pitch in the third match within a week. Will Füllkrug be preferred to Haller again? Was captain Emre Can able to recommend himself for a starting appearance during the week and will Schlotterbeck/Hummels continue to form the centre-back pairing? The coach will have to change his starting line-up from the Champions League anyway, as left-back Bensebaini was shown a yellow card the previous week

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Union Berlin – Statistics & current form

For years, the path of Union Berlin went exclusively upwards. First from the 2nd division to the top flight, then for the first time on the European stage and finally into the top four of the Bundesliga as well as the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. At the moment, however, the likeable club from the German capital, which is obviously out of breath, seems to have to take a short break.

The Eisernen are currently one of the teams with the worst form in Germany’s top division, have suffered four defeats in a row at national level and have also paid dearly twice in a row in the top flight. By way of comparison, they lost four games in the entire 2022/23 season. In any case, a total of six defeats in a row in competitive matches provides sufficient arguments not to make any predictions on coach Urs Fischer’s team for the weekend between Dortmund and Union Berlin.

The Union defence concedes too many goals

The fact that the Red and Whites’ defence has been extremely vulnerable of late also speaks in favour of this. Three goals conceded against Braga and at least two goals conceded on three of the last four Bundesliga matchdays underline this impressively. To make matters worse, the Eisernen have lost all four of their four Bundesliga matches at Signal Iduna Park so far.

Apart from that, the lack of self-confidence and the increasing insecurity should also be taken into account in the analysis. In the event of a successful Dortmund vs. Union Berlin prediction on the hosts, the Berliners’ gap to the international places in the standings would already grow to nine points. A certain amount of pressure is therefore also on coach Urs Fischer’s charges, who can cause problems for the BVB defence at any time with their strong switching game.

Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:

Dortmund – Union Berlin Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin have played each other in a total of eight first division matches so far. BVB have won five of these matches, while the Köpenickers have won three of them. To date, there has not been a draw at league level.

The direct comparison is even clearer when looking at the home record of the runners-up. Schwarz-Gelb have won all four of their home matches against the Eisernen, always leading at the break and with a goal difference of 13:3. In six of the eight encounters, they have scored more than 2.5 goals.

Dortmund – Union Berlin Tip

At this point we like to use the image of a staggering boxer who looks tired and exhausted but is still punching wildly in order to perhaps land the lucky punch and send his opponent to the boards.

To apply this metaphor to BVB’s upcoming Bundesliga match against the Eisernen, we can expect to see two “reeling boxers” who are playing their third match within a few days, failed to land a winning goal during the week and, football-wise at least, have fallen short of their own expectations so far this season. The winner of the points, however, will probably wear black and yellow jerseys on Saturday afternoon. According to the betting odds, the bookmakers see Dortmund as having a clear lead against Union Berlin.

In fact, we would also tend more in the direction of the Terzic eleven. On the one hand, because BVB have won all their Bundesliga home games against Union so far and have always been ahead after 45 minutes. On the other hand, because of the Berliners’ ongoing drought, having lost six times in a row across competitions. The double result HT1/FT1 at an appealing top odds of 2.25 comes to mind here.

Even more interesting in the Dortmund vs. Union Berlin clash, however, is betting on at least three goals being scored in the course of the match. Although there is only a 1.62 odds on this, we still believe that the match will be full of goals. Eight units underline our confidence in this pick.