The humiliated BVB want to show a reaction

In the fast-moving soccer business, we often talk about reactions. FC Bayern, for example, showed such a reaction on Saturday evening in the Bundesliga top match at Borussia Dortmund. The Munich side dismantled the previously unbeaten runners-up at national level 4:0, making amends for their embarrassing DFB Cup defeat at 1. FC Saarbrücken. On Tuesday evening, BVB now have the exciting and complicated task of showing a reaction. And that in the landmark Champions League home game against Newcastle United.

Two weeks after the thrilling first leg, which the Black & Yellows won 1:0 thanks to a goal from Felix Nmecha, coach Edin Terzic’s team now have a great opportunity to open the door wide to the round of 16 in the second leg. If Dortmund’s prediction of a home win against Newcastle proves correct, BVB would not only win the head-to-head tie against the Premier League club, but would also put them ahead on points. However, after the weekend’s setback, Borussia will have to improve in all respects to at least achieve the minimum goal of a point win

The visitors from the north-east of England, meanwhile, travel to the Ruhr with a broad chest. During the week, Manchester United were clearly defeated in the EFL Cup and there was also a 1-0 victory over Arsenal at the weekend. However, the Magpies have had far more problems away from home than at home so far this season.

There is therefore a certain basis to believe in a successful result from a German perspective and to underpin this with a corresponding Dortmund vs Newcastle prediction

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

It would definitely go beyond the scope of this article to go through BVB’s list of shortcomings from the game against FC Bayern in detail. The Black & Yellows lacked a lot in the eagerly anticipated top match against the record champions, conceded two early goals and also failed to find any solutions in the remainder of the game against Munich, who played with a high level of confidence. In addition, the high-speed footballers from the Isar mercilessly exposed the serious lack of speed in the Borussia defense.

In order to avoid further exacerbating this problem, it would be immensely important not to fall behind in the top flight on Tuesday evening. Instead, the aim must be to create scoring chances from a somewhat deeper and compact defensive line or to lurk for transitional actions themselves.

Coach Edin Terzic will also want to see a completely different face from his team, as will the fans at Signal Iduna Park. With their own supporters behind them and the anger in their stomachs, we really do expect a different performance from the runners-up than at the weekend. Consequently, a prediction of a positive result for the home side between Dortmund and Newcastle seems to be within the realms of possibility

Only three goals have been scored in BVB’s three CL matches so far

This assessment is also in line with various statistics, as the Black & Yellows have not lost any of their last six home games in the UEFA Champions League (three wins, three draws). In total, they have conceded just one goal in those six games in front of the yellow wall. Tuesday evening could be the fourth clean sheet in a row against the English side at home in the CL. Dortmund have never managed that before in the European Cup.

The fact that the defensive line around Mats Hummels and Nico Schlotterbeck has not conceded a goal in five of the last nine competitive matches and keeper Gregor Kobel has also kept a clean sheet in two of the three CL matches so far gives hope in this regard. Although the reigning runners-up can never be completely ruled out when working against the ball, there is much to suggest that the spectators in Dortmund’s soccer temple will not be treated to a goal spectacle on Tuesday evening.

Incidentally, the team is currently struggling to make the right decisions in the final third. Want an example? In the first three CL matchdays, only Victor Osimhen (Napoli) has shot at goal more often without scoring than Donyell Malen. Nevertheless, the speedy Dutchman currently poses the most danger in attack, so we are not averse to considering the high odds on Malen scoring in the Dortmund v Newcastle clash. We found a proud 4.10 at Interwetten.

Predicted line-up of Dortmund:

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Like Borussia Dortmund, Newcastle United have four points after three matchdays in the CL group stage. Nevertheless, the English side have their backs to the wall, which is primarily due to the loss in the first leg two weeks ago. Even in the event of a draw on Tuesday evening, the Magpies would remain behind BVB in the standings and would always lose out to Borussia on points after six matchdays due to the direct comparison.

Nevertheless, it cannot be assumed that coach Eddie Howe’s team will play for victory with all their might and regardless of losses. On the one hand, because the Black & Whites have great respect for Dortmund and their home strength. On the other hand, because a defeat would put the round of 16 in the distant future. With a healthy mixture of control, compactness and patience, Newcastle will be looking to take home something worthwhile. However, after a rather uneventful first half, it is quite possible that the “Luzie will only go off” after the break

Alan Shearer was the last Newcastle player to score away from home in the CL

At least the visitors should not lack confidence. Last Wednesday, the Magpies won the EFL Cup round of 16 at Manchester United 3-0, and on Saturday evening they happily brought Arsenal to their knees with a 1-0 victory. However, the task on Tuesday evening will be a more complex one in many respects.

The Magpies have been nowhere near as strong away from home as they have been at home so far this season. They have played a total of six away games in the Champions League and league, only one of which was won (8-0 at Sheffield United). It is also interesting to note that the last player to score away from home for Newcastle in the top flight was a certain Alan Shearer. However, that was over 20 years ago. English coaches have not had particularly good experiences with away games in Germany. Bobby Robson was the last coach from the island to win a CL match in Germany in 2003. There are some indications that this streak will continue.

Predicted line-up for Newcastle:

Dortmund – Newcastle Direct comparison / H2H balance

The first leg two weeks ago was the first and so far only meeting between these two clubs at international level. As already mentioned, Felix Nmecha scored the only goal of the day. Gregor Kobel made several brilliant saves in the closing stages to secure a 1-0 away win for the Black & Yellows. For the first time since 1996/97, BVB could now win the first and second legs against an English team in the top flight…

Dortmund – Newcastle tip

Just three days after the humiliation against Bayern, BVB face another fateful evening. In their own stadium, the Black & Yellows have a huge opportunity to take a potentially decisive step towards the round of 16. A home win would be necessary to really improve their prospects of reaching the last 16. Even a draw would keep Terzic’s side ahead of their direct rivals from the north of England. We therefore do not expect the home side to take the final risk.

The Dortmund v Newcastle betting odds, which could hardly be more balanced, underline the fact that two teams will meet at eye level on Tuesday evening from 18:45. Identical quotes are offered for both the home and away win. This is one of the reasons why we are refraining from betting on the three-way market, but would still give the Black & Yellows a slight advantage in case of doubt. Six CL home games in a row without defeat is just as much an argument as the Howe team’s away performances so far this season

We therefore recommend the combined bet on 1X & Under 4.5 goals between Dortmund and Newcastle, which can be played at top odds of 1.75 at Betano.