Rose vs. Baumgart – Spectacle guaranteed!
In purely statistical terms, Borussia Dortmund are playing an absolutely satisfactory season so far. BVB are second in the Bundesliga, just one point behind the leaders, have laid the foundations for progress in the top flight with two wins from three games, and also made it into the last 16 of the DFB Cup during the week. However, the team at Borsigplatz is not entirely happy. On the one hand, because bad luck with injuries is clouding the overall situation. On the other hand, however, also because of the still very unstable defensive situation.
On Saturday afternoon, coach Marco Rose’s team now faces its next test. The Signal Iduna Park will host an opponent who took four points from the first and second legs against Borussia in pre-season. Nonetheless, the odds between Dortmund and Cologne are clearly in favour of the home side, who will still have to do without their top striker Haaland.
The bottom line between Dortmund and Cologne is that a prediction on the home win is perhaps not the very first betting option due to the low quotes. It is perhaps more interesting to bet on a few goals, as both teams have rarely lacked spectacle so far this season. Together with bottom team Greuther Fürth, the Black and Yellows and the “Effzeh” are still waiting for their first clean sheet. Goals are therefore virtually pre-programmed.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
BVB didn’t cover themselves with glory on Tuesday evening in the second round of the DFB Cup. For a long time, the somewhat improved B-team of Dortmund ran unsuccessfully against the second-league bottom team from Ingolstadt. It was not until the substitution of Thorgan Hazard, who shortly afterwards scored twice, that the decision was made and the team deserved to reach the last 16.
On Saturday, the team will look to build on its good record in the Bundesliga. With seven wins and two defeats, the Rose eleven are in second place and are currently only one point behind leaders Bayern Munich. Even more impressive, however, is their record at home, as they have won all of their last nine home games this season. Marco Rose is thus the first BVB coach to win his first five matches in the top flight at the Westfalenstadion.
Dortmund have always conceded at least one goal so far
This is one of the reasons why betting on a home win between Dortmund and Cologne is a relatively safe bet. Particularly because Borussia remained unbeaten at home against the cathedral cities for almost 30 years before the home defeat in the 2020/21 pre-season.
However, it is doubtful whether the victory will be high or even without conceding a goal. BVB have conceded at least one goal in all seven of their victories so far this season. An attractive 2.50 at Bet365 beckons for a success of the host in combination with goals on both sides. If Dortmund want to improve their chances of winning the championship, they will have to improve their defence!
The BVB stands for spectacle in the second half
In another category, the Rose eleven is top of the league! No team scored more points after the break than the ball club. The 15 goals scored in the second 45 minutes are also not topped by any other club. In total, 24 goals were scored after the break in the games involving the cup winners. This is also the highest number in the league. Before the presumably offensive match between Dortmund and Cologne, the odds on goals in the second half are therefore definitely of interest.
In addition to the aforementioned Erling Haaland, who will miss several more weeks due to his hip flexor injury, Guerreiro, Dahoud, Reyna, Schulz, Morey and Coulibaly are also unavailable for the weekend. Youngster Moukoko could make his comeback. Reus, Akanji and Hazard rotate into the starting eleven; Greg Kobel could replace Marwin Hitz between the posts after overcoming injury.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, M. Wolf – Bellingham, Witsel – Brandt, Reus, T. Hazard – Malen
Last matches played by Dortmund:
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Ingolstadt
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
10/19 2021 – Ajax Amsterdam 4 – 0 Borussia Dortmund
1st Bundesliga
10/16 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 1 Mainz 05
10/02 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Augsburg
Cologne – Statistics & current form
The critics of 1. FC Köln, who almost saw themselves vindicated after the heavy defeat in Hoffenheim as well as the weak first half in the Rhineland derby at home against Leverkusen, have fallen silent again just 135 minutes of football later. Against Werkself, a clear improvement in performance after a 2-0 deficit led to a point (2:2), and in the DFB Cup during the week, the Cathedral City side showed patience and won the game against VfB Stuttgart, once again thanks to two goals after the break.
Behind Borussia Dortmund and FC Bayern, Cologne currently have the third-best offensive performance, if you look at the second 45 minutes in isolation. While in the BVB games, as mentioned above, 24 goals were scored after the break, the Rhinelanders are hardly inferior to their upcoming opponents in this ranking with 22 goals. In seven of the ten “Effzeh” matches, a bet on more than 1.5 goals in the second half would have gone through. Reason enough to make a corresponding prediction for Saturday’s match between Dortmund and Cologne.
Will Cologne’s offensive lust once again come at the expense of stability?
Despite the euphoria still prevailing around coach Steffen Baumgart’s team, the sober figures do not necessarily indicate that the eighth-placed team will be able to take anything worthwhile away from Signal Iduna Park. In four away games in 2021/22, the Geißböcke have yet to win a game. In addition, they have conceded ten of their 16 goals away from home. Three points from the past twelve trips to Dortmund’s football temple are also anything but exhilarating.
Because Steffen Baumgart has hardly missed an opportunity to get himself in the limelight with interviews in recent weeks and months, everyone knows that the ex-Paderborn player almost prefers a high-scoring game that is narrowly lost to a tactical skirmish that ends with a point. Accordingly, we expect courageous guests who have an average of 55% possession so far this season and will play lively forwards.
With the exception of the important midfielder Skhiri and Jannes Horn, all players are likely to be involved. Czichos and Kainz have been missing recently due to infections. It will probably be a race against time for both of them. Meré and Duda are available as replacements. Up front, hopes rest on Tony Modeste. The Frenchman already has six goals for the season. In comparison: In the previous season, the best marksman of the “Effzeh” had seven goals to his name after 34 match days.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
T. Horn – Schmitz, Kilian, Czichos, Hector – Ljubicic – Özcan, Kainz – Uth – Modeste, Andersson
Last matches played by Köln:
DFB Cup
10/27 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 2 1. FC Köln
1st Bundesliga
10/24 2021 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
10/15 2021 – Hoffenheim 5 – 0 1. FC Köln
10/01 2021 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 1 Greuther Fürth
09/25 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
Dortmund – Cologne Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Borussia Dortmund remained winless against three teams in the pre-season in both first and second legs. In addition to Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Bayern, this also included 1. FC Köln, who even managed to snatch three points at Signal Iduna Park for the first time since 1991. The Geißböcke have only won two away matches in a row at BVB’s football temple twice before (1977-78 and 1987-88).
The bottom line, however, is that the cathedral city has suffered 25 away defeats in Dortmund. Only against Gladbach have they suffered more defeats. To make matters worse, six of Cologne’s past seven goals against BVB have come from stationary balls. Far more interesting, however, is the statistic that in the last six direct duels (!) at least two goals were always scored after the break. We expect the same at the weekend.
Dortmund – Cologne tip
We find a very interesting constellation in the match between Dortmund and Cologne on Saturday afternoon. According to the betting odds, the role of favourite is clearly distributed. However, the fact that the Geißböcke have what it takes to be a scare tactic for the favourites this season was already clear in the narrow 2:3 defeat against FC Bayern and the draws against RB Leipzig and Leverkusen.
For this reason, we deliberately refrain from betting on a home win, as the odds are too low in our eyes and offer no value. However, there are numerous conclusive arguments that point to a high-scoring match. For example, both teams are still waiting for their first “to nil” in the current season.
From a statistical point of view, our goal bet can even be narrowed down to the second half, as the second halves involving BVB and the “Effzeh” produced by far the most goals in 2021/22. In the six most recent direct duels, the spectators have always seen at least two goals after the change of ends.
