Does BVB temporarily jump to first place?

Many Borussia Dortmund fans will return to the place that changed many things a fortnight ago on Friday night. What admittedly reads a bit martial and is more reminiscent of the opening lines of a good thriller, of course, refers to the memorable finish of BVB’s Bundesliga match against Bremen. Despite leading 2-0 after 89 minutes, the Black and Yellows were left without even a single point after the referee’s final whistle.

As the fifth matchday kicks off in the German top flight, there is now a chance to make amends. The fact that Terzic’s team will be playing on Friday evening is a particularly positive development.

On the one hand, because it gives them an extra day off before the Champions League opener against Copenhagen. On the other hand, because of an outstanding Friday statistic. None of the last 32 home games were lost on the last working day of the week in the Bundesliga. Should a prediction on BVB pay off again this time between Dortmund and Hoffenheim, the latter would climb to the top of the table – at least for one night.

This will not be an easy task, however, as the visitors from Sinsheim are an in-form opponent travelling to Signal Iduna Park. Andre Breitenreiter’s team is the only Bundesliga team to have won three matches in a row and has already proven in the past that it can be the spoilsport in front of 80,000 spectators. However, if we look at the odds between Dortmund and Hoffenheim, the bookmakers are still sure that the favourites will keep the three points in their own stadium.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

If all matches had been whistled off after 88 minutes this season, Borussia Dortmund would now be in first place in the table with the maximum yield of twelve points. Because BVB, as already mentioned, recklessly gave away a home victory in their last home game, there are “only” nine points on their account. With three wins, Terzic’s team is in fifth place and still has a lot of room for improvement, especially offensively. No other top six team in the current standings has scored fewer goals than Borussia.

However, as long as the defence holds up as well as it did in the 1:0 victories against Leverkusen and the previous week at Hertha BSC, it should be relatively unimportant to those responsible how many goals they manage to score themselves. On a positive note, all ten goals of the season, including the three goals in the DFB Cup, were scored by ten different players. After Haaland’s departure, the attack is therefore more difficult to calculate.

Dortmund aim to maintain two impressive series

The fact that BVB have not gone winless in two consecutive Bundesliga home games since the end of 2020 is also helpful mentally for the upcoming match against TSG. After the slip-up against Werder, it can be statistically assumed that the reigning runners-up will return to winning ways and at the same time celebrate three consecutive victories against their upcoming opponents from Sinsheim for the first time in the club’s history.

The strength on Fridays mentioned in the introduction can be taken even further. 24 of the 32 unbeaten Bundesliga home games on Friday evenings have been won. The last defeat came in 2004 against arch-rivals Schalke. This is one of the reasons why we prefer to bet on a home win between Dortmund and Hoffenheim and also justify this with the fact that the Black and Yellows looked more dominant for the first time the previous week against the “old lady”, created many good chances and left an improved impression in general.

In terms of personnel, coach Edin Terzic is still without Donyell Malen, who is struggling with muscle problems and is not expected back until Tuesday’s game against Copenhagen. Unlucky Morey had to undergo another operation and will again be out for months. It is also too early for Dahoud to play. In the centre, Özcan will once again get the chance next to Bellingham. The Cologne native set up the first goal of his former colleague Modeste on his BVB debut. Should the French striker also score on Friday, there are exciting odds in the 2.25 range between Dortmund and Hoffenheim.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel – Guerreiro, Schlotterbeck, Hummels, Wolf – Özcan, Bellingham – Brandt, Reus, Adeyemi – Modeste

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

20/08/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 3 Werder Bremen

13/08/2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund

06/08/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen

Club friendlies
30/07/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 1 Antalyaspor

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

Do you still know Matthias Kaltenbach? The former assistant to Julian Nagelsmann took over as interim coach from the sacked Alfred Schreuder at the end of the 2019/20 season and still led TSG into the Europa League in sixth place with three wins in the final four matchdays. But what does the current co-coach of Ajax Amsterdam have to do with the “new Kraichgauers”?

In fact, Andre Breitenreiter is the first head coach besides the aforementioned Matthias Kaltenbach to record nine points in his first four Bundesliga games with the Sinsheim club. Hardly anyone would have expected such a positive start from last year’s ninth-placed team. Only once before (2010/11) did the Blue and Whites have more points on their account after four matchdays than they do at present.

How strong is the TSG really?

With this in mind, it may be worth considering the odds on both sides to score before the Dortmund vs Hoffenheim tie. Seven goals scored in the past three matchdays, including three in Leverkusen and at home against Bochum, underline the fact that the team is brimming with confidence and that a surprising number of cogs are already meshing together.

However, TSG should not be overestimated either. The truth is that Breitenreiter’s team benefited from a brutally ineffective Leverkusen side and faced two Bundesliga relegation candidates in Bochum and Augsburg. So perhaps the 3-1 defeat in Mönchengladbach on the first matchday showed the true face of the ambitious kickers from the Rhine-Neckar region?

Does Dortmund expert Kramaric strike again?

The fact of the matter is that the visit to Signal Iduna Park will be a real acid test, but TSG will go into the game with the advantage of having lost only one of their last four away matches at Borussia. In two of the four games mentioned, “Hoffe” scored at least twice, which in turn serves as an argument to combine the expected home win with the “both score” between Dortmund and Hoffenheim. A high 2.60 could be offered via the Bet365 app.

In terms of personnel, it remains to be said in conclusion that coach Breitenreiter, who in this role in the Bundesliga lost out four times at the Westfalenstadion, will not have to make any changes compared to the previous week. Once again, the Zurich master coach can rely on his in-form attack around Kramaric, Rutter and Baumgartner. Kramaric alone has already scored eight goals against BVB in his career, more than any other current Bundesliga player.

Predicted line-up of Hoffenheim:
Baumann – Kabak, Akpoguma, Vogt – Angelino, Baumgartner, Geiger, Prömel, Skov – Kramaric, Rutter

Last matches played by Hoffenheim:

Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Hoffenheim 1 – 0 Augsburg

20/08/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 – 3 Hoffenheim

13/08/2022 – Hoffenheim 3 – 2 VfL Bochum

06/08/2022 – Gladbach 3 – 1 Hoffenheim

DFB Cup
31/07/2022 – SV Rödinghausen 0 – 2 Hoffenheim

Dortmund – Hoffenheim Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Although Dortmund’s Bundesliga record against TSG Hoffenheim is positive with eleven wins, ten draws and seven defeats, the Black and Yellows have regularly had problems with the Kraichgauers in recent years. We have already discussed the one home win from the past four home games.

In addition, BVB have conceded a whopping eleven (!) goals in front of their own fans against their upcoming opponents since the start of the 2018/19 season. Gregor Kobel also had to make two saves in the pre-season, but still celebrated a 3:2 home win. Because they were also able to celebrate a three-goal win in the PreZero Arena, Borussia managed the so-called “double” (victory in the first and second legs) against the Sinsheimers for the first time in their own Bundesliga history. For the first time ever, three wins in a row against their secretly fearful opponents now await them.

Dortmund – Hoffenheim tip

Friday night’s match between Borussia Dortmund and Hoffenheim has a lot going for it in more ways than one. The winner of this match will jump to the top of the table for at least one night. For the loser, a series will end instead.

BVB could leave the turf as losers for the first time after 32 consecutive Friday matches and remain winless in two Bundesliga home games for the first time since the end of 2020. TSG are in danger of seeing their three-match winning streak come to an end. What’s more, they could lose three games in a row to the black and yellow in the top flight for the first time ever.

When looking at the Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim betting odds, it becomes clear that the bookmakers see Borussia quite clearly ahead. Possibly even a little too clearly, because after all, the Kraichgauer have lost only one of the last four away games at Signal Iduna Park and have scored eleven goals in front of the South Stand since 2018. Given the positive start to the season, there should also be no lack of self-confidence.

Due to the higher individual quality and the home advantage, our choice between Dortmund and Hoffenheim nevertheless falls on the tip in favour of the Terzic eleven.