BVB already under pressure in the opening match
You don’t need to be a special football expert to claim that Borussia Dortmund will definitely have to leave FC Copenhagen behind after six games in the fight for the coveted round of 16 tickets in the UEFA Champions League. They may even need the maximum haul of six points from the two games against the Danish champions to put themselves in prime position.
The Black and Yellows therefore do not have any start-up time in the top flight, must withstand the pressure already on Tuesday evening and must not allow themselves to slip up, especially in front of a home crowd. If we look at the odds on the three-way market between Dortmund and FC Copenhagen, however, it also becomes clear that BVB, who have made a solid start to the Bundesliga season, are quite clearly favoured. The implied probability for the home win is a whopping 74%.
This is probably also due to the fact that Borussia have rarely let their guard down in front of their own fans at Signal Iduna Park in the group stage in recent years. Advantages in terms of quality and international experience at the highest level are further arguments that point the pointer relatively clearly in the direction of the Terzic eleven. However, the recently well-performing defence still has to confirm its new stability in the European Cup. If they manage to do so, the forecast for Dortmund’s clash against FC Copenhagen is for a commanding home win.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
For the seventh time in a row, Borussia Dortmund will compete in the group stage of the Champions League. After the Black and Yellows surprisingly had to pull out after the preliminary round in the previous season, they will be desperate to do better this season and avoid their first back-to-back elimination in over 20 years.
Dortmund recently with results football par excellence
Hope for a positive start is primarily based on the good form of the Black and Yellows, who have made a solid start thanks to twelve points from five Bundesliga games. If the already legendary home game against Werder Bremen had been whistled off after 89 minutes, Marco Reus and Co. would now even be at the top of the German top flight without a loss.
Nevertheless, one had the feeling that the dramatic defeat against the promoted team was a warning signal at the right time. Two narrow 1:0 victories followed at Hertha and on Friday evening at home against TSG Hoffenheim. Especially the defence around the new central defender duo Hummels/Schlotterbeck was convincing in combination with the in-form keeper Gregor Kobel.
The home record in the group phase is encouraging
The reigning vice-champion’s top priority in the top flight must also be to stand firm at the back, as BVB are currently lacking a great deal of penetrating power following the departure of Erling Haaland and the injury to Sebastien Haller. This is one of the reasons why it can make sense to combine a home win with the Under 4.5 between Dortmund and FC Copenhagen. A win with a clean sheet or a maximum of one goal conceded seems more realistic than a glorious victory.
In our opinion, it is very likely that Edin Terzic’s team will take the first three points on the first day of the match. For one thing, Borussia have won eight of their last twelve CL home games in the group phase (three draws, one defeat). On the other hand, Dortmund have never lost to a Danish representative in their European Cup history.
Only the personnel situation is currently causing beads of sweat on the forehead of the coach, who has only been able to win one of his four personal Champions League matches as a football coach so far. In addition to Haller, Dahoud and Morey, who were already unavailable, Bynoe-Gittens, Guerreiro and Malen have now joined them. While there is still hope for the latter two, Adeyemi could also make his comeback after overcoming injury.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Last matches of Dortmund:
Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Hoffenheim
27/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
20/08/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 3 Werder Bremen
13/08/2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
06/08/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
FC Copenhagen – Statistics & current form
For FC Copenhagen, even their participation in the Champions League group stage can be considered a great success. For the first time since 2016/17, the Danish flagship is back in the elite 32-team group. The White-Blue have this to thank for their qualifying success in the play-offs against Trabzonspor. After a 2-1 home win in the first leg, a goalless draw in Turkey was enough to punch their ticket.
For coach Jess Thorup, however, Tuesday night’s match will be a first in the top flight. Not only that, but the 52-year-old will be the first coach since Stale Solbakken to accompany FCK on the sidelines in Europe’s most important club competition. That, in turn, should not protect them from failure. Danish coaches have not won any of the past 19 matches in the main competition (five draws, 14 defeats).
Can FCK get a grip on the defence internationally?
It is quite likely that this remarkable series will now continue in the first matchday. Between Dortmund and FC Copenhagen, the distribution of the odds provides a clear picture, although two interesting statistics should encourage the underdog.
For example, the reigning national champions have never lost the first match in their previous four appearances in the group stage (one win, three draws). Apart from that, FCK have lost only one of their last 14 away matches in the European Cup, although this balance sheet, which seems very impressive at first glance, must be put into perspective insofar as qualifying matches and matches in the Europa League and Conference League were also taken into account.
Moreover, the truth is that the Danes are among the biggest underdogs in this year’s competition in terms of quality and also have problems at national level. Four of the previous eight matches in the domestic Superliga were lost. Only three teams have conceded more goals than the defending champions (13), who are currently in sixth place and will be talking about a messed-up start to the season.
Predicted FC Copenhagen line-up:
Last matches played by FC Copenhagen:
Superleague
02/09/2022 – FC Copenhagen 1 – 0 Silkeborg
28/08/2022 – FC Nordsjälland 3 – 1 FC Copenhagen
Champions League Qualification
25/08/2022 – Trabzonspor 0 – 0 FC Copenhagen
Superleague
19/08/2022 – Lyngby Copenhagen 0 – 3 FC Copenhagen
Champions League Qualification
17/08/2022 – FC Copenhagen 2 – 1 Trabzonspor
Dortmund – FC Copenhagen Direct Comparison / H2H Record
During the 2001/02 Europa League season, the clubs faced each other once before in two competitive matches. In the third round, Dortmund won 1-0 in both the first and second legs. The goals by Jan Derek Sörensen and Heiko Herrlich both came in the final minute. In four attempts, BVB has thus never lost to a Danish representative (3-1-0). FC Copenhagen are still waiting for their first win after ten attempts against German clubs (0-3-7).
Dortmund – FC Copenhagen Tip
The first Champions League match of the season is already of crucial importance for BVB. At home against the Danish champions from Copenhagen, a three-goal win is virtually mandatory in order to avoid falling behind early on in the race for the top two places. Especially in view of the fact that the next two matchdays include tough away games at Manchester City and Sevilla.
Borussia are heavily favoured and can probably only beat themselves. The visitors from Northern Europe have had a poor start to the season in the domestic Superliga, conceding 13 goals in eight games and are also clearly weaker in terms of quality.
In addition, Terzic’s side have gained confidence from their two recent 1-0 victories and can currently rely on their solid defence. The impressive home record with eight wins from the last twelve home games in the CL group stage and the fact that Schwarz-Gelb have never lost to a representative from Denmark in their own club history supports our recommendation for the favourite’s victory.
We are even convinced that BVB will land a start-finish victory and that betting on the double HT1/FT1 result will pay off for the group opener between Dortmund and FC Copenhagen.
