Dortmund desperately need points
There are no two opinions about the fact that the pool of four around Dortmund, AC Milan, Newcastle and Paris St. Germain represents the group of death in this year’s Champions League preliminary round. The Bundesliga team in particular is not considered to have a particularly good chance of progressing in this demanding constellation.
The team of coach Edin Terzic, which is still unbeaten at national level and recently managed to catch up with the top of the Bundesliga table with three important victories, is therefore under massive pressure on Wednesday evening as part of the second matchday in the top flight. On the one hand, because Milan is of course a direct competitor in the race for the last 16. On the other hand, because of the home advantage, which definitely has to become a factor in this complicated group.
Because BVB has still not covered itself in glory in terms of football so far this season and has had to overstretch its so-called luck in various matches, it is definitely risky to make a prediction on a home win between Dortmund and AC Milan.
A much more interesting form of betting seems to be on Marco Reus and Co., who will meet their old colleague Christian Pulisic, among others. The winger will be playing his 50th Champions League game at Signal Iduna Park, of all places, and thus remains the American record holder in the top flight. By way of comparison, Weston McKennie, the runner-up, has played 24 games in the league.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund are getting a particularly rough deal these days and weeks. Whether it is because the expectations have become even greater after the carelessly lost championship in 2022/23 cannot be reliably answered. But it is a fact that the Black and Yellows are currently faring much worse in the media than the standings in the German top flight would suggest.
As always, the truth seems to lie in the middle with regard to the fourth-placed team, which has drawn level on points with FC Bayern Munich thanks to three wins in a row and is only two points behind leaders Bayer Leverkusen.
It is undisputed that BVB’s performances so far offer a lot of room for improvement. At the same time, however, it should not be forgotten that Terzic’s team has not lost any of the six matches they have played in the league and has recently successfully completed the demanding tasks in Freiburg, at home against Wolfsburg and at TSG Hoffenheim on Friday.
Dortmund actually already doomed to win
Ahead of the trend-setting Champions League match against the Italian top team from Lombardy, the Black and Yellows are relying first and foremost on their home strength. In the past five group stages in the top division, Dortmund actually conceded only one defeat in 15 home games (nine wins, five draws).
Moreover, BVB has not started a CL season with two defeats since the 2017/18 season. If you still want to bet on the ball club losing out in the group stage in Europe’s most important club competition in front of a home crowd for the first time since November 2021, you can currently find odds of 2.90 between Dortmund and AC Milan at Bet3000.
Although we are only on the second matchday, a simple point win on Wednesday evening could possibly be too little for the German runners-up. The role of Marco Reus is likely to be all the more important. The veteran has been one of BVB’s top performers of late and will probably get his chance from the start again this week. If the ex-captain scores his fourth goal in the last five games, Bet365 will pay out more than four times the stake.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Borussia Dortmund (Expected line-up) 4-3-3
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
AC Milan’s 2023/24 Champions League adventure began with a 0-0 draw at home to Newcastle United, but no-one was really happy with the result afterwards, with the Rossoneri posting an xG rating of 1.99 after 90 minutes. Only Manchester City and Real Madrid, who were mercilessly superior in their games against Red Star Belgrade and Union Berlin, fired more shots on goal than coach Stefano Pioli’s team.
Despite the fact that things did not go as desired offensively, at least an impressive defensive streak was extended. For the third time in a row, “Il Diavolo” remained without conceding a goal in the CL group stage. In general, both Milanese clubs had some of the strongest defences in the top flight in the pre-season. It is therefore quite possible that the odds on a low-scoring Dortmund vs. AC Milan clash on Wednesday evening will also go through.
Milan will travel to Dortmund with a broad chest
The form seems to be right from the visitors’ point of view, just in time for the important away match at Signal Iduna Park. Christian Pulisic and Co. recently celebrated three wins in a row in Serie A, closing the gap on leaders Inter Milan. However, their most painful defeat of the season so far came at the hands of their city rivals with a 1:5 loss.
It will be exciting to see on Wednesday evening which approach Coach Pioli will choose for his team. Does he trust his charges to be dominant in front of the yellow wall, or is the focus initially on a stable defence? We believe in the second scenario, expect a compact Rossoneri and are therefore not averse to making a prediction on the X after 45 minutes between Dortmund and AC Milan.
It is also possible that the score will still be 0-0 at the break. Incidentally, this is similar to BVB’s first group match at the Prinzenpark in Paris, in which the Black and Yellows ultimately lost 2-0 and, in the event of another defeat against Milan, might already have to start burying their dreams of reaching the last 16. For a bet on a goalless first round, we can also recommend Oddset, who have returned to the betting market.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
AC Milan (Expected line-up) 4-3-3
Dortmund – AC Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The clubs have played a total of six matches on the international stage so far. With three wins, one draw and two defeats, the red and black team is just ahead. However, the Milan club has only managed to win one of the three matches played at the Westfalenstadion.
Nevertheless, Milan have only lost two of their 14 Champions League matches against German teams. Apart from that, the aforementioned direct duels are all more than 20 years in the past and therefore hardly have any greater relevance for the upcoming clash on Wednesday evening at 21:00.
Dortmund – AC Milan tip
From BVB’s point of view, we don’t need to beat about the bush about the importance of this second group match. If the Black and Yellows want to continue to flirt with the round of the last 16, they actually need a three-goal win. Betting odds of 2.45 are offered for the match between Dortmund and AC Milan. The leading bookmakers also see slight advantages for the Bundesliga team.
However, we only share this assessment to a limited extent. The most recent performances left a lot to be desired. BVB has had to rely on good fortune on several occasions at national level, but still stands in fourth place in the standings after six matchdays without a defeat. On a positive note, Borussia have only lost one of their last 15 home games in the CL group stage.
We therefore also focus on the home advantage of the Terzic eleven and believe that the hosts will keep at least one point at home. We still combine the double chance with a maximum of four goals in the course of the game and justify this with the fact that the guests from Milan would probably not be so dissatisfied with a draw.
All in all, we recommend betting on 1X & under 4.5 between Dortmund and AC Milan, which can be played at Betano at odds of 1.70.
