Will BVB say goodbye with their heads held high?

Last Wednesday, Borussia Dortmund went down 4-0 in Catalonia, which means that the game is likely to be over by the end of this tie. Only once in 159 cases has a team turned a four-goal deficit in the Champions League: Barca itself in 2016/17 in the memorable 6:1 against Paris Saint-Germain after the 0:4 at the Seine. Accordingly, there is no alternative for Dortmund against Barcelona other than the tip that FCB will advance to the semi-finals. The AI calculates that BVB has just a 0.4 percent chance of turning the game around.

On the one hand, we at least believe that the Westphalians, who also held their own against Bayern in the classic game on Saturday evening (final score: 2:2), will score a home goal against FC Barcelona. On the other hand, the Catalans, who have now gone 24 competitive games without defeat in the calendar year (20 wins, four draws), are simply too strong and too dangerous in front of goal to be expected to play half-heartedly or even unmotivated in the Signal Iduna Park.

Dortmund vs. Barcelona prediction AI

In the three-way system, the odds seem to be set too well, so that supercomputer BETSiE can’t find value anywhere. Currently, the top odds for Borussia’s home win are 3.90, which is close to the value range. Should even higher prices appear here or even a odds boost be offered in the linked overview, it could well be in the value area to bet on the black and yellows as soon as the odds exceed the 4.00 mark.

Currently, however, the AI prediction for Dortmund against Barcelona is also aiming for a goal-rich second leg. BETSIE calculates an expected goals value of 2.05 for the Blaugrana. In view of the average of 3.3 goals that Barca scored per Champions League game, a tip on over 1.5 goals for the Catalans is therefore an obvious choice, which can be played on via the ODDSET app at odds of 1.55.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Borussia Dortmund face an almost impossible task after the 0-4 first-leg defeat to FC Barcelona. It was BVB’s second-worst defeat in the Champions League and their fourth loss in six meetings with the Catalans. At home, the Black & Yellows have also not won in their three previous European games against Barcelona (two draws, one defeat), including a 2-3 loss in the league phase last December. Overall, it could be the longest winless streak in the club’s history against a team in the European Cup – on a par with seven games against the Glasgow Rangers between 1966 and 1999.

Despite the bitter defeat in the first leg, Dortmund have usually impressed at home in the knockout phase: they have remained unbeaten (four wins, two draws) in their last six home games in the Champions League knockout round. However, in the current season, they have only managed to draw in both home games of this kind (0-0 against Sporting, 1-1 against Lille). Hope is also provided by players like Serhou Guirassy, who has already scored ten goals in the current Champions League season, though he has not scored in his last four games.

The Achilles’ heel in the CL was the defense

In defense, the best build-up player from the back line was already sorely missed in the first leg: Nico Schlotterbeck, who, with 16.8 line breaks per 90 minutes in the Champions League, was the leading central defender among all central defenders, is out injured. This absence is particularly noticeable against Barcelona’s pressing-resistant offense. In any case, BVB has already conceded 18 goals in this CL season, more than ever before in a season in the premier class, which is why another goal-filled game is very likely in Dortmund against Barcelona.

Offensively, the rhythm of the Borussians slowed down after a strong start to the season. Guirassy, outstanding in the league phase, has not scored in his last ten attempts on goal. As a result, their success rate, which was previously a strong 40 percent, has also dropped. Against the in-form Catalans, the Black & Yellows will need to perform close to their best to at least get a conciliatory result out of the competition.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

FC Barcelona travel to Signal Iduna Park with their chests puffed out and a comfortable lead. The 4-0 win in the first leg was the Catalans’ biggest first-leg lead in a Champions League knockout tie since the 7-1 win over Leverkusen in 2012. They are also in good form: Barca have already won three games against German teams in this Champions League season. Before that, they had lost five times in a row to Bundesliga teams with 2:19 goals. Accordingly, the odds are clearly in favor of the Blaugrana against Dortmund. Betano offers odds of 1.85 for tip 2 and, in addition to a 100% bonus up to €80, also offers a €20 free bet.

The Catalans’ offensive record is impressive: with an average of 3.3 goals per game, Barcelona are playing the second most prolific season in Champions League history – only Bayern in 2019/20 were better (3.9). Incidentally, the coach back then was also Hansi Flick. Raphinha has 19 scorer points in just 11 appearances (12 goals, 7 assists) and could become only the third player ever to break the 20-point barrier in a single Champions League season. Then there’s Robert Lewandowski, who has scored 60 goals in 59 CL games since turning 30. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has more.

Barcelona also looked solid defensively

Barcelona are also hard to beat when it comes to controlling the game. With Iñigo Martínez (14.8) and Pau Cubarsí (14.6), two central defenders are among the top five in Europe for line-breaking passes. Both make a significant contribution to the dominant ball circulation and are likely to once again exude the composure on the ball against Dortmund that Flick’s game plan demands. Four consecutive CL victories have been achieved away from home recently. Only between 2011 and 2012 was Barcelona without an away point for longer in the premier league.

The Catalans are also unbeaten in their last ten Champions League games (nine wins, one draw) and have recently won three knockout games in a row for the first time since 2018/19. Should they also win the second leg, it would be another step back towards European dominance. For the Blaugrana, it is not only about advancing, but also about sending a clear signal to the competition.

Dortmund – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0 – 2 – 4

Six international competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, with FC Barcelona leading the way with four wins and two draws. Should the Black & Yellows fail to win the second leg, it would be their second-longest winless streak in Europe after a seven-game losing streak against Glasgow Rangers between 1966 and 1999.

Dortmund – Barcelona betting tip

The betting odds are also favoring the Blaugrana in the second leg between Dortmund and Barcelona, who have not only been unbeaten in ten Champions League games (nine wins, one draw), but have not yet lost any of their 24 competitive games in 2025 (20 wins, four draws). But: BVB also has a certain home strength to throw into the mix. In the knockout rounds of the premier class, the black and yellow have not lost in six home games (four wins, two draws).

So it is certainly valid to make a prediction for a dignified farewell to the premier class for Dortmund against Barcelona, although Barca is simply too powerful, enthusiastic and self-confident overall for us to believe that it will be enough for BVB to extend their home series. However, since we would not categorically rule it out either, we recommend the combined tip on over 2.5 goals with goals from both teams.