Who will make it into the Champions League?

In the fourth qualifying round of the Champions League, Dinamo Zagreb will face Qarabag Agdam on Tuesday. The reigning Croatian champions will host the current holders from Azerbaijan. The home side appear to be favored, as the Croatians are ranked 38th in the UEFA rankings, while the visitors are only 54th. This is one of the reasons why a home win is considered more likely between Dinamo Zagreb and Qarabag

In addition to the club coefficient, the squad analysis also speaks against an away win. Martin Baturina, a 21-year-old Croatian midfield talent, has a market value of 20 million euros alone and is therefore worth more than the visiting team’s entire squad. The hosts will probably also be clearly superior in terms of play and should dominate the game. It is therefore no wonder that the odds for a win for the visitors between Dinamo Zagreb and Qarabag are set quite high

Although the Azerbaijani representative from Baku only has a squad value of 18 million euros, we have set our sights on a player from the visiting team in our value tip. Juninho Vieira was already one of the most important players in Gurban Gurbanov’s team last season, scoring a total of 42 points in 55 games. The attacker has been able to build on this so far in the new season and has already scored seven goals in six competitive matches. We therefore recommend betting on Juninho Vieira to score between Dinamo Zagreb and Qarabag. Kick-off for this game is at 21:00 on Tuesday at the Maksimir Stadium in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb – stats & current form

Dinamo Zagreb are the reigning Croatian champions and secured their seventh championship title in a row last season. As a result, the Croatians were also seeded directly for the play-offs of the Champions League qualifiers. But that’s not all, because with 18 championships in the last 19 seasons, GNK have been unstoppable in recent decades. The home side are also the current record champions with a total of 25 championship trophies

Clean start to the season

The Croatian top flight began at the start of August 2024, just under two and a half weeks ago. Dinamo played three league games in this period and won all of them. Sergej Jakirovic’s team also scored ten goals and conceded just one. As a result, the capital city club is already back at the top of the table. The domestic league therefore does not appear to be a real challenge. This could of course have a negative impact at international level.

We have already mentioned Martin Barutina in the introduction, but would now like to introduce the youngster in more detail. The 21-year-old midfielder is the biggest talent in Croatian soccer and is already on the radar of a number of top clubs. Arsenal showed particular interest, but due to the Gunners’ squad density, a transfer failed to materialize. However, a transfer to one of the top leagues in Europe is only a matter of time, as he has already made his debut for the national team

Lots of offensive power

With 116 goals in 59 competitive matches (⌀ 1.97), the home side’s attacking line was unstoppable last season. In addition, Sergej Jakirovic’s team only failed to score eight times, finding the back of the net in almost 87% of matches. The Croatians have been able to build on these performances in the new season and have already scored ten goals in their first three games. Dinamo Zagreb should therefore be able to rattle the opposition’s net, especially in their own stadium.

While the offense was also able to keep up very well internationally, the defense seemed to have slight problems from time to time. However, with only 52 goals conceded in 59 games (⌀ 0.88), the defensive performance was by no means poor. In addition, Zagreb kept a clean sheet on 28 occasions, meaning they finished almost 48% of their competitive matches with a clean sheet. However, they rarely kept a clean sheet, especially against the stronger opponents, meaning that a goal from Qarabag Agdam remains a realistic possibility.

Predicted line-up for Dinamo Zagreb:
Nevistic – Ristovski, Bernauer, Mmaee – Spikic, Ademi, Baturina, Misic, Hoxha – Kulenovic, Petkovic

Qarabag – Statistics & current form

Qarabag Agdam won their third league title in a row last season and qualified for the second round of the CL qualifiers. Gurban Gurbanov’s team also won their tenth championship in the past eleven years, making them Azerbaijan’s record champions. That is particularly impressive, as Qarabag went without a single championship title between 1994 and 2013 and therefore had a few titles to make up for. Neftci Baku were not replaced as record champions until 2022

The road to the premier league

As Azerbaijani champions, the visiting team were seeded for the second round of the Champions League qualifiers, where they faced Lincoln Red Imps. However, Gurban Gurbanov’s side had no problems in beating the Gibraltar side, winning 7:0 in the end. Qarabag were not as comfortable in the following round and had to play extra time after 180 minutes. There, however, the team remained ice-cold and ultimately won against Ludogorets Razgrad.

With 151 goals in 60 games (⌀ 2.52), the visiting team’s attack was virtually unstoppable last season. In fact, FK Qarabag’s offense was only able to defend for 90 minutes three times, scoring in 95% of their competitive matches. Even against teams like Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the team was able to score five goals in four matches. The new season got off to a similarly strong start, with Gurban Gurbanov’s side on 22 goals after six games

A little too vulnerable

While the visiting team’s offense can provide plenty of danger internationally, the defense lacked the necessary stability. This was also evident in the 3rd round of Champions League qualifying, when Gurban Gurbanov’s team conceded five goals against Ludogorets Razgrad. With a performance like that, the game against Dinamo could turn into a disaster. A goal conceded in Zagreb therefore seems almost inevitable.

Predicted Qarabag line-up:
Buntic – Vesovic, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev – Romao, Jankovic, Andrade, Benzia, Zoubir – Vieira

Dinamo Zagreb – Qarabag head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The direct comparison between the two teams is quickly summarized, as the two teams have never met before. The upcoming clash is therefore a real premiere. Of course, this makes it a little difficult to predict the outcome, as we don’t know to what extent our own style of play will be adapted to our opponents. However, this does not fundamentally change the aforementioned facts and thus nothing about our Dinamo Zagreb vs Qarabag prediction

Dinamo Zagreb – Qarabag prediction

We recommend the bet between Dinamo Zagreb and Qarabag on “both teams meet – yes ”. This is due to the fact that both teams have plenty of attacking qualities and have rarely failed to score in the recent past. The visitors are particularly noteworthy, as even in the four matches against Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the unbeaten German champions, the Azerbaijani team scored five goals in four games in the previous season. We therefore assume that nothing will be given away here

Alternatively, we recommend the Dinamo Zagreb vs Qarabag odds for a home win, as the home side are simply on a different level in terms of play. In addition, the hosts have won all three games of the new season so far and are therefore on a bit of a high. Especially in their own stadium, with the support of their own fans, the Croatians should win here. The highest odds for this bet can be found at Sunmaker and are at least 1.84.