Dinamo Zagreb still on course for comeback?
Dinamo Zagreb are on course for the CL qualification play-offs. The “Modri” already set the course for this in last week’s match in Bulgaria. DZG coach Cacic’s team won 2-1 against Ludogorez Rasgrad and is therefore not even under pressure to win the second leg.
Considering how strong the Croatian record champions have been at the Maksimir Stadium in recent years, the ticket for the play-offs is already within reach. The bookmakers see Dinamo as comparatively clear favourites in the second leg after their strong performance in the first leg. For Dinamo Zagreb vs. Ludogorez Rasgrad, odds of only 1.75 are offered for tip 1.
The visitors from Bulgaria will not hide in the second leg at the Maksimir Stadium, however. The last time Ludogorez visited Dinamo’s fortress, the Bulgarian top-flight club recorded a 2-1 win in the 2013/14 Europa League, with the Croats finishing bottom of the group stage (1 point). Ludogorez, on the other hand, finished as group winners (16 points).
Ludogorez were by no means inferior in terms of play last week. After an early 0:2 deficit in the first half, a comeback was not to be realised. The Rasgrad attack cut its teeth against the defensive bulwark of the Croatian record champions.
Dinamo Zagreb – statistics & current form
were surprisingly knocked out of the competition by FC Sheriff Tiraspol. The Balkan side thus missed out on the group stage of the Champions League for the second time in a row.
A season earlier, the “Modri” had already been eliminated by Ferencvaros – at that time already in the third qualifying round of the Champions League, mind you. This season, it is now obvious that the Croatian record champions will reach the play-offs. Dinamo Zagreb have already won the first leg against Ludogorez Rasgrad away from home.
In the second leg in front of their home crowd, a draw would be enough to advance to the next round on their own merits. If you take a look at the home record in international matches at the Stadion Maksimir, the only question is with which result the “Modri” will advance to the next round.
Stadium Maksimir – the fortress of Dinamo Zagreb
At home, the Croatian record champions have lost only two of their last 16 home games on the international stage since the 2020/21 season. Most recently, Dinamo Zagreb even went four times in a row without an international defeat at Stadion Maksimir. The last time the “Modri” lost at home was in the 2021/22 season against West Ham, since then there have been two wins and two draws.
Surprisingly, Dinamo Zagreb had squandered home advantage against Shkupi in the last round of the current CL qualifiers. The Croatians “only” managed a 2:2 draw against the North Macedonian champions in their own stadium. However, Dinamo Zagreb won the second leg and thus entered the third round of the 2022/23 CL qualifiers.
As in the first leg just under a week ago, Dinamo will have almost all the players in their squad available for the second leg. Major changes are not expected after the strong performance in Bulgaria. Already last weekend in the league match against Varazdin, despite the double burden, Dinamo refrained from major rotation.
Predicted line-up of Dinamo Zagreb:
Livakovic; Ristovski, Lauritsen, Peric, Ljubicic; Baturina, Misic, Ademi, Ivanusec; Orsic, Drmic
Last matches played by Dinamo Zagreb:
1st League
06/08/2022 – NK Varazdin 1 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb
1st League
30/07/2022 – Dinamo Zagreb 4 – 1 NK Istra 1961
Champions League Qualification
27/07/2022 – Shkupi 0 – 1 Dinamo Zagreb
1st League
24/07/2022 – Slaven 1 – 5 Dinamo Zagreb
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form
The first leg could not have gone worse for Ludogorez Rasgrad. Only a few minutes into the match, the Bulgarian champions were trailing 0:2 after a double strike by the Croatian attack. Although Ludogorez managed to score the equaliser in the 22nd minute of the match, they failed to mount a comeback against the Croats.
For Ludogorez it was the third defeat in the last ten home games on the international stage. The Bulgarian eagles are now under pressure to win the second leg and must improve their poor away record in international matches. Ludogorez have won only one of their last eight international matches away from home.
In return, they have suffered a total of four defeats in this period. One of the four away defeats came against Shamrock Rovers in the last round. Head coach Simundza’s side nonetheless got off lightly, having won the first leg 3-0 earlier in the season.
Will Ludogorez fail again against the Croatian defence?
Last week, Ludogorez’s offensive did not leave the best impression in the match against the Croats. Although the Bulgarian representative tried hard for long stretches in the offensive game, Ludogorez failed time and again against the defensive bulwark of the Croatian record champions. An offensive spectacle can therefore be ruled out for the second leg.
Especially as Bernard Tekpetey, the scorer in the first leg, is one of the most important offensive players in the Bulgarian ranks. The Ghanaian received another yellow card, as he did in the previous round, and will be missing from Ludogorez’s squad this time. The importance of the winger in Ludogorez Rasgrad’s attacking play is shown by the goal tally in the league so far.
With three goals, Tekpetey is the best scorer for the Bulgarian Eagles. Head coach Simundza also has to do without players like Padt and Cauly. Both players are still unavailable due to injury.
Predicted line-up of Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Sluga; Cicinho, Plastun, Verdon, Nedyalkov; Yordanov, Piotrowski, Yankov; Tekpetey, Sotiriou, Rick
Last matches played by Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Champions League Qualifier
03/08/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 2 Dinamo Zagreb
First Professional League
30/07/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 5 – 0 PFK Spartak Varna
Champions League Qualifier
27/07/2022 – Shamrock Rovers 2 – 1 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
First Professional League
23/07/2022 – CSKA 1948 2 – 2 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 3 – 0 Shamrock Rovers
Dinamo Zagreb – Ludogorez Rasgrad Direct comparison / H2H record
So far the direct comparison between the two clubs is even. Both teams have celebrated two victories each, while one match ended in a draw. In four of the five matches between Dinamo Zagreb and Ludogorez Rasgrad, a prediction of over 2.5 goals has paid off.
Only the premiere duel between the Croatian record champions and Ludogorez failed to break the three-goal mark. Dinamo Zagreb’s 2-1 win at Ludogorez Rasgrad last week was the first away victory in the club’s history.
Dinamo Zagreb – Ludogorez Rasgrad Tip
The “Modri” already have one leg in the play-offs of the Champions League qualification. After the 2:1 in the first leg away from home, the Croatian record champions are no longer under pressure to win the second leg. Dinamo Zagreb should therefore not have too much trouble at home and book their ticket for the play-offs.
Dinamo Zagreb have only lost two of their last 16 home games on the international stage at the Stadion Maksimir. It would therefore be all the more surprising if the “Modri” were to squander home advantage against the visitors from Bulgaria this season and thus be kicked out of the CL qualifiers.
We expect – as in the first leg just under a week ago – a win for the Croatian record champions. Ludogorez Rasgrad will have to take a lot of risks in their attacking play to break down the defensive bulwark of the “Modri”. If the hosts from Zagreb can use the free spaces effectively, a lead for Dinamo cannot be ruled out even before the break.
With a stake of five units, we therefore dare to bet on Dinamo Zagreb vs Ludogorez Rasgrad at odds of 2.62 on “HT/FT: 1/1”.
