Can the Bulgarians still make a difference on the Black Sea?

The Georgian national soccer team put in a respectable performance at the European Championship in Germany. The debutants surprisingly reached the round of 16 and even took a 1:0 lead against the eventual champions from Spain. Despite the elimination against the Iberians, Sagnol’s team won the hearts of many fans – and not just at home.

One of the protagonists of this success was Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, the star from Naples. Not everyone may know that the 23-year-old right-footer from Dinamo Batumi moved to the foot of Mount Vesuvius in the summer of 2022. After his contract in Kazan, Russia, was suspended, “Kvaradona” returned to Georgia at short notice and ended the season there with eight goals in eleven games. However, Kvaratskhelia no longer has any influence on the blue and white port city’s historic fourth CL qualifier and the corresponding Dinamo Batumi v Ludogrez Rasgrad tip for the upcoming second leg

The task for the Georgians is extremely complicated anyway, as they lost the first leg 3-1 in Bulgaria a week ago. The underdogs from the Black Sea therefore need an absolute cream day in front of their home crowd and must also hope that the internationally far more experienced “Eagles” might feel too confident due to their relatively comfortable starting position. In the run-up to the second leg between Dinamo Batumi and Ludogorez Rasgrad, however, there is a lot to be said for a prediction on the Bulgarian record champions, who reached the knockout phase of the Conference League in 2023/24

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Dinamo Batumi – Statistics & current form

FC Dinamo Batumi has developed into one of the best addresses in Georgian soccer in recent years. The first championship in the club’s history in 2021 was repeated in the past season (2023). This is the second time in total that the Light Blue & Whites have qualified for the UEFA Champions League.

After the men from the Black Sea immediately failed at the opening hurdle of Slovan Bratislava after extra time in their first attempt in 2022/23, there is also a risk of early elimination this summer. The fact is that after the 3:1 defeat in Bulgaria, only the boldest optimists and full-blooded supporters still expect the team to make it through to the second qualifying round for the first time. In any case, the leading bookmakers do not fall into this select circle of utopians, as horrendous odds are being offered on the underdog advancing to the second leg between Dinamo Batumi and Ludogorez Rasgrad

Dinamo Batumi are running behind their own expectations nationally

Strictly speaking, the expected knockout in the top flight would continue a rather disappointing season to date. As the Georgian league is played on a calendar year basis, 18 matches have already been played in the Erovnuli League. The defending champions have only won half of their matches (9-4-5). At the moment, they are only in fourth place, eight points behind leaders Dila Gori. Coach Andrey Demchenko’s team are therefore clearly falling short of their own expectations.

With a view to the CL second leg on Wednesday evening, it must also be taken into account that the European Championship participant’s league season does not resume until the beginning of August. By comparison, the new season starts in Bulgaria next weekend. In addition to the inferred advantages in terms of competitive toughness and sprightliness, there is another point that favors a prediction for the visitors between Dinamo Batumi and Ludogorez Rasgrad. In fact, Demchenko’s side have not won any of their last four home games, picking up just one point out of a possible twelve. The fact that they are now under pressure to win on Tuesday evening is also unlikely to play into the hands of the inferior hosts.

Predicted line-up for Dinamo Batumi:
Silva – Mali, Kharabadze, Kobakhidze, Wanderson – Mamuchashvili, Victor, Santos – Gudushauri, Tambedou, Gomis

Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form

Ludogorez Rasgrad has been a permanent guest in the European Cup for many years. The serial champions from Bulgaria, who have won every league title at home since 2012, have already reached the group stage of the UEFA Champions League twice, where they have competed against top teams such as Liverpool, Real Madrid, Paris St. Germain and Arsenal. In the Europa League, they even reached the knockout phase on several occasions. Incidentally, this was similar to the previous Conference League season, where they narrowly lost to Servette Geneva in the intermediate round by 0:1 after a first and second leg.

Nevertheless, the total market value of the squad alone, which amounts to over 50 million euros, underlines the fact that the club from the north-east of the country, which was bought by a Bulgarian oligarch and is heavily subsidized financially, has completely different ambitions to its Georgian opponents. This is one of the reasons why the second match between Dinamo Batumi and Ludogorez Rasgrad also offers lower odds for an away win on the three-way market. The maximum odds are 1.82, which implies a probability of 54%

Ludogorez is in great early form

Coach Georgi Dermendzhiev can be very satisfied with the pre-season preparations so far. Without exception, all test matches have been victorious. Among other things, the top team defeated Swiss first division side St. Gallen 2:0, did not concede a goal in the 1:0 win against Slovan Bratislava and proved that the offense around former Schalke player Bernard Tekpetey also works very well in the thumping 4:1 win against the Romanians from Universitatea Craiova. Ahead of the season opener next weekend, the serial champions’ form can therefore be described as extremely solid.

It will therefore be interesting to see on Wednesday evening whether the Green-Whites, who are full of legionnaires from South America, will play for victory or whether they will restrict themselves to their own defense in view of their good starting position. We believe the latter approach is anything but out of the question, as the Bulgarians have been particularly successful in international competition recently thanks to their good work against the ball. At the same time, however, the team has many outstanding transition players who are always capable of making pinpricks via counter-attacks. With a certain degree of efficiency, another win is therefore possible.

Predicted line-up for Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Padt – Fonn Witry, Verdon, Almeida, Nedyalkov – Naressi, Nedelev, Chocev – Rick, Cruz, Tekpetey

Dinamo Batumi – Ludogorez Razgrad head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The clubs faced each other for the first time in the first leg a week ago. Ludogorez Rasgrad were already 2-0 up after 24 minutes and then concentrated primarily on managing the result. Dinamo Batumi had over 60% possession, but remained largely harmless. The Bulgarians countered the Georgians’ 1:2 equalizer immediately, meaning that the underdogs from the Black Sea will need a win with a two-goal difference on Wednesday evening to at least save themselves for extra time

Dinamo Batumi – Ludogorez Rasgrad betting tip

Ludogorez Rasgrad, as a two-time participant in the CL group stage and permanent guest in European competitions, is certainly one of the most prominent clubs in the first qualifying round for the top flight. After the aforementioned 3:1 home win against Dinamo Batumi, there is every indication that the Bulgarian serial champions will progress to the next round with aplomb. Even a one-goal defeat would be enough for Dermendzhiev’s side to progress.

However, we expect the individually stronger and more experienced Green-Whites to also win the second leg in Georgia. On the one hand, because the home side are lagging behind their own expectations in the league and have picked up just one point from their last four home games. On the other hand, Ludogorez have had a great preparation so far, winning all their test matches and starting the new season next weekend. The advantages in terms of fitness are therefore also obvious

Since the starting position should also play into the hands of the visiting team and the Bulgarians have their strengths in transitional play and a compact defense anyway, we are even taking a bit of a risk with our betting recommendation. We tend to bet on the Asian handicap (-1.25) in favor of the visitors between Dinamo Batumi and Ludogorez Rasgrad. In the event of an away win with a one-goal difference, half the stake will be given as cashback. A win with two or more goals difference, on the other hand, brings great odds of 2.60 in the Bet365 app. Our stake is three units