Is Leipzig finally going to play to a draw again?
For 1. FC Köln, the start to the calendar year 2023 could hardly have gone better. After three completed matches, the Rhinelanders are still unbeaten and have even managed to collect one more point in this period (5) than in the last seven Bundesliga matches in 2022 (4). However, this positive streak will be put to the test this weekend. The Cathedral City will host the in-form Red Bulls on Saturday afternoon.
Coach Marco Rose’s team, which has returned to the race for the championship thanks to recent good results and is currently just three points behind the leaders from Munich, managed to advance to the quarter-finals of the DFB Cup in relatively confident fashion during the week.
The last three away games in the Bundesliga have also all been victorious, which is why it is quite understandable that the lower odds are offered for a bet on the visitors’ three-goal win in the Cologne vs RB Leipzig clash.
However, the Geißböcke should by no means be underestimated. After all, coach Steffen Baumgart’s boys have rediscovered their energy, their willingness to run and the intensity that is indispensable for their own game during the winter break.
If they can bring this to the pitch over 90 minutes on Saturday, the forecast for only the second Effzeh victory in the past eight direct Bundesliga encounters between Cologne and RB Leipzig does not seem out of the question. Nevertheless, the central city side are rightly favoured to draw level on points with the record champions at least until Sunday, when Bayern visit Wolfsburg.
Cologne – statistics & current form
Currently, 1. FC Köln are in twelfth place in the Bundesliga standings, but with only a six-point lead over the relegation zone, they still have to look downwards. This is despite the fact that the Geißböcke have only lost six of their 18 matches so far this season and have thus suffered just as many defeats as BVB, for example, who are playing for the championship with twelve points more in fourth position.
The reason for this is the numerous draws that Baumgart’s 2022/23 eleven has already had to settle for. The cathedral city dwellers have shared the points seven times. On the other hand, they have only won five times, four of them in front of a home crowd. Only in 2000/01 did the Rhinelanders have more threes and more goals scored after eight home games than they do at present. 18 of the 29 goals were scored at home
Can Baumgart beat the personal RB curse?
In view of these numbers, it is not our first approach to play the odds on the away win between Cologne and RB Leipzig. A bet on the Effzeh scoring at least three goals in the course of the game for the sixth time in their ninth home game seems more plausible. This is also supported by the fact that only RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg have scored more goals in the 2023 calendar year than Cologne, who, as is well known, came out on top in their only home game after the winter break with a 7-1 win over Bremen.
The fact that Steffen Baumgart has never won against the Bullen in five attempts as a Bundesliga coach is less encouraging. In all of these five matches, however, his team scored at least one goal, but never won by zero. All the more reason to bet on a high-scoring game on Saturday afternoon. Andersson, Dietz, Kilian, Limnios, Pedersen and Uth are out injured. Not many changes in the starting eleven are to be expected.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Hübers, Chabot, Hector – Skhiri, Martel – Maina, Ljubicic, Kainz – S. Tigges
Last matches played by Köln:
Bundesliga
29/01/2023 – Schalke 04 0 – 0 1. FC Köln
25/01/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
22/01/2023 – 1. FC Köln 7 – 1 Werder Bremen
Club friendlies
14/01/2023 – 1. FC Köln 5 – 0 Lommel
07/01/2023 – 1. FC Köln 4 – 0 Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig continue to float on the cloud of success. The central city side have picked up a staggering 30 points in 13 Bundesliga games under Marco Rose. The Bullen have not lost in eleven games in the German top flight (8-3-0). Across all competitions, they have even gone 17 consecutive games without defeat. RB has long since returned to the title race. The third-placed team is just two points behind Bayern.
At least for one night, the Rose eleven could pass the record champions on Saturday and put the next exclamation mark on their record. The prerequisite for this is that the prediction of a three-goal win for the visitors in the Cologne vs RB Leipzig clash comes true. The chances are not bad at all, because in addition to the impressive form of recent weeks and months, the reigning cup winners have finally found their old strength away from home.
RBL despite conceding (too) many goals
After initial problems under Domenico Tedesco, the Saxons won their most recent three away games in the Bundesliga, but have never managed to score nil away from home over the entire season.
The 17 goals conceded in nine away games underline the defensive vulnerability, which is also reinforced by the fact that Leipzig have failed to keep a clean sheet in six consecutive league matches. In five out of six cases, a bet on the over 2.5 would have gone through. There have also been at least three goals in seven of the nine away matches involving RBL, which is why the corresponding odds on a lively match definitely bring value ahead of the Cologne vs RB Leipzig encounter.
Due to injury, Marco Rose, who declared during the week before the cup win against Hoffenheim (3:1) that nothing had come up on the transfer market on deadline day that he and those responsible were fully convinced of, will still have to do without Dani Olmo and Christo Nkunku. The latter loss is particularly serious as the Frenchman, who is expected to join Chelsea in the summer, is still seen as the hottest candidate to win the goalscoring crown. Diallo and regular keeper Gulacsi complete the list.
Predicted line-up of RB Leipzig:
Blaswich – Henrichs, Orban, Gvardiol, Raum – X. Schlager – A. Haidara, Laimer – Szoboszlai, Werner – Silva
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
DFB Cup
01/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 3 – 1 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
28/01/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
25/01/2023 – Schalke 04 1 – 6 RB Leipzig
21/01/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Bayern Munich
Club friendlies
14/01/2023 – RB Leipzig 4 – 0 Mlada Boleslaw
Cologne – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H-balance
This is the twelfth time the clubs have faced each other in the Bundesliga. Only two of the previous eleven meetings were won by Cologne. Leipzig retained the upper hand on five occasions. The teams have drawn four times. Of the five home games so far, the Geißböcke have also only won one. The first leg ended in a spectacular 2:2 draw. In general, the over 2.5 would have gone through in eight of the previous eleven direct duels.
Cologne – RB Leipzig Tip
Two teams that have marched through the 2023 calendar year unbeaten so far duel it out on Saturday afternoon as part of Matchday 19 in the Bundesliga. While Cologne have picked up five points from three games, including points at Munich’s Allianz Arena, RBL have celebrated three victories in four competitive games, including a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim in the cup last week.
In general, the central cities have been in a strong form for many weeks, not losing any of the last 17 competitive matches and even celebrating 14 victories in this period. Three consecutive away wins round off the very positive record and also serve as an indication of why Cologne are only considered outsiders between RB Leipzig according to the betting odds.
However, the isolated three-way odds on the Bulls’ success should not be alluded to in our eyes. Instead, it is conceivable to combine the three-way of the visiting team with hits on both sides. For this, even an appealing 3.75 in the top is offered.
But the betting on at least three goals in the course of the game seems even more interesting between Cologne and RB Leipzig. The Saxons have failed to score six times in a row and have conceded at least one goal in all away games. Both teams also have a certain amount of offensive quality, so the 1.75 offered is worth a bet of six units to us.
