Who will take the big points in the European Cup race?
The race for the international starting places has rarely been more exciting in recent years than it is at present. Places four to ten are separated by just three measly points. Even the teams up to 13th place can hope for the European starting right for the coming season in case of a small series of successes. It is therefore all the more important to keep the direct duels against direct rivals positive.
One such awaits us on Saturday evening in the cathedral city. Cologne will meet Frankfurt. It is understandable in several respects that the betting odds will swing in the direction of the Rhinelanders and elevate Baumgart’s team to the role of favourites. Among other things, Eintracht’s shockingly weak away record in Cologne, with just one win from their last 14 appearances as guests, speaks for itself.
Apart from that, we will explain other aspects in the following analysis, some of which are aimed at the fact that we can expect a thoroughly offensive game from both teams – especially against the background of the recent defeats of these teams last weekend. Will it pay off to predict goals on both sides between Cologne and Frankfurt? In any case, the first leg last year ended in a 1-1 draw.
Cologne – statistics & current form
If you had told Cologne before the season that after 22 completed matchdays they would be eighth in the standings, ten points clear of the relegation places, and at the same time only four points behind fourth place in the Champions League, those responsible around coach Steffen Baumgart would certainly have signed off on it immediately. But because there are still twelve games to play, this interim ranking is no more than a snapshot without much value.
After the Rhinelanders ended the 2021 calendar year with two victories, the first competitive matches after the turn of the year were rather suboptimal overall. In addition to the disappointing cup exit in the round of 16 against second-division team Hamburger SV, the “Effzeh” also celebrated only two wins in five league games (one draw, two defeats).
Offensive hui, defensive pfui
The defence in particular has been anything but solid recently, which is underlined by the ten goals conceded in the five Bundesliga matches mentioned above, i.e. an average of two goals conceded per game. Admittedly, this trend of vulnerability against the ball is not entirely new. After all, Baumgart’s team has only kept its clean sheet twice so far this season – as rarely as only Borussia from Mönchengladbach.
At the same time, the Cathedral City team can still rely on its own offensive. In last weekend’s 3-1 defeat in Leipzig, the Geißböcke already scored their 34th goal of the season, thus already equalling the total from the entire 2020/21 pre-season. More than 20 years ago (2000/01), a Cologne team had last scored more goals than Modeste and Co. in the Bundesliga at this point.
In view of these facts and figures, a first tendency is definitely to place a bet on one or the other goal in the course of the match between Cologne and Frankfurt. Both the over 2.5, which went through in four of the most recent five Bundesliga matches, and a bet on “both score”, which would have been crowned with success in 70% of all “Effzeh” matches, offer themselves. Due to injuries, the coach is virtually spoilt for choice. Only Timo Horn will have to replace the ill Marvin Schwäbe between the posts.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
T. Horn – Schmitz, Kilian, Hübers, Hector – Özcan, Skhiri – Thielmann, Uth, Duda – Modeste
Last matches played by Köln:
1st Bundesliga
02/11 2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 1 1. FC Köln
02/05 2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 0 SC Freiburg
Club friendlies
01/27 2022 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 2 Schalke 04
1st Bundesliga
01/22 2022 – Vfl Bochum 2 – 2 1. FC Köln
DFB Cup
01/18 2022 – 1. FC Köln (3)1 – 1(4) Hamburger SV
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
It is fair to say that the winter break has not done Frankfurt Eintracht much good. While the Hessians were able to win six of their last seven Bundesliga games before the winter break, the Eagle Bearers seem to have developed some rust over Christmas and New Year. In five games in the new calendar year 2022, they have so far only managed a meagre four points. The SGE has not had a worse start to the second half of the season since 2010/11. Back then, the Frankfurt team was even relegated to the 2nd Bundesliga…
Oliver Glasner’s team is not doing quite so badly at the moment. They are in tenth place in the table. Only one point separates Eintracht from their upcoming opponents. So if a prediction on a three-goal win between Cologne and Frankfurt on Saturday pays off, Filip Kostic and his colleagues would climb at least one place in the standings.
Die Eintracht und der Samstagabend-Fluch
Hopeful in this respect is especially the good away record of the black-white-reds in the current season. Frankfurt have picked up 18 of their 31 points away from home. Five victories are offset by three draws and three defeats in opposing stadiums. Fourth place in the away table is the logical consequence.
Spectacle is also usually the order of the day at Eintracht’s away matches. On the one hand, this is underlined by the fact that 38 goals have already been scored in eleven away matches (3.45 goals on average). On the other hand, both teams scored in nine of these eleven matches. In more than half of all away matches, the bet on the over 2.5 would have been correct. Consequently, you should also take a closer look at the corresponding odds on a relatively high-scoring encounter on Saturday evening between Cologne and Frankfurt.
But in order for the Eagles to actually dream of a three-goal win, they will have to end an ongoing drought. None of the past 14 Bundesliga games (!), which took place on a Saturday evening at the top match kick-off time, could be won by the kickers from the Main metropolis. At least in terms of personnel, things are looking good. Only Ache, Paciencia and substitute goalkeeper Ramaj will be missing. Hasebe, on the other hand, is a candidate for the starting eleven again after recovering from injury.
Predicted Frankfurt line-up:
Trapp – Tuta, Hasebe, Ndicka – Sow, Jakic – da Costa, Kostic – Lindström, Kamada – Borré
Last matches played by Frankfurt:
1st Bundesliga
02/12 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg
02/05 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 2 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt
Friendly club matches
01/27 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
1st Bundesliga
01/21 2022 – Eintracht Frankfurt 0 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
01/16 2022 – Augsburg 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Cologne – Frankfurt Direct comparison / H2H balance
This is the 92nd time these two clubs have met in Germany’s top division this weekend. With 32 Cologne victories compared to 31 Frankfurt successes and 28 draws, the direct comparison is almost even. However, the home record of the Rhinelanders is somewhat different, as they have lost only one of their last 14 games against Eintracht at home (eight wins, five draws).
Nevertheless, the Hessians now have four unbeaten direct Bundesliga encounters to their name. In fact, there has only been one defeat in the past seven encounters with the “Effzeh”. In five of the most recent six direct duels, both teams have scored at least one goal.
Cologne – Frankfurt tip
For 1. FC Köln, it is about nothing else than maintaining an impressive series on Saturday evening. In the course of the season so far, the cathedral cities have never conceded two defeats in a row. After the 1:3 defeat in Leipzig the previous week, Baumgart’s team now wants to get back on track.
Although lower betting odds are offered on the home win between Cologne and Frankfurt, a bet on the home win should be viewed with caution. The guests from the banking metropolis are, after all, the fourth best away team in the Bundesliga and have also not lost any of the four most recent direct duels against the “Effzeh”. A prediction on the three-way market is thus not a serious option for us.
In our opinion, it is more exciting and above all more promising to make a prediction before the match between Cologne and Frankfurt that both teams will score. The team with the fourth most shots on goal in the current season will meet the sixth-placed team in this category. In terms of clean sheets, both clubs are at the bottom of the rankings. The Geißböcke have only scored twice, the SGE only three times.
To push the odds up a bit more, it is even conceivable to combine the “BTS” bet with the Over 2.5, which should also go through given the offensive orientation of both teams. At bookmaker Unibet, there is a 1.82 at the top, which we play with a stake of eight units.
