Will Dortmund’s dream series end in the top flight?
When the media talk about a “TENsation” these days or even accuse Dortmund of the infamous Bayern-Dusel, it is clear that many things are going exceptionally well for Borussia at the moment. BVB has won all ten (!) competitive matches in the 2023 calendar year so far, drawn level with the record champions in the Bundesliga, reached the quarter-finals of the DFB Pokal, and also advanced to the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League at home to Chelsea.
The eagerly awaited second leg will take place on Tuesday evening at Stamford Bridge, in which the Black and Yellows will be desperate to book their place in the next round. However, after the impressions of the first game, when the Londoners extremely constricted the Terzic team in the second half and failed several times only to convert their own chances, an incredibly difficult task awaits Marco Reus, Julian Brandt and Co.
It’s no coincidence that the best bookmakers are offering lower odds on a home win for the Potter team between Chelsea and Dortmund and therefore classifying it as more likely. At the top, a 1.95 is offered on the Blues winning after 90 minutes, which, however, would not be synonymous with Borussia being eliminated. Extra time or even a penalty shootout cannot be ruled out on Tuesday
Even so, it does not seem impossible that the prediction of a win for the visitors will pay off in the Chelsea vs Dortmund clash. The Bundesliga runners-up travel to London with a broad chest, plenty of momentum and clearly in better shape. For the first time since 1996/97, BVB could win both legs of the knockout phase against the same opponent.
In 1997, the team coached by Ottmar Hitzfeld and featuring Matthias Sammer, Stefan Klos, Andreas Möller and Lars Ricken beat Auxerre and Manchester United in both quarter-finals and semi-finals and later even won the trophy with a 1-0 victory over Juventus in the final. Who knows what else is possible in 2023…?
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
There is no doubt that the most important game of the season so far awaits Chelsea Football Club and head coach Graham Potter on Tuesday night. With the Londoners falling miles behind in the Premier League, having little chance of qualifying for the European Cup and having failed to qualify for both cup competitions, the UEFA Champions League offers not only a welcome change from the dreary league routine, but also the only opportunity to secure a ticket to the 2023/24 top flight.
It will be exciting to see whether the Blues crack under the pressure or put in a similarly strong performance as in the first leg at Signal-Iduna Park. The 1-0 defeat in Dortmund’s football temple had to be described in retrospect as undeserved and unfortunate, as the Londoners had far better scoring opportunities but were unable to take advantage of them. Havertz and Co. fired eight shots at the BVB goal without scoring – the highest figure since 2003/04.
Are we going to see the CL face of the Blues again?
Purely statistically, though, there is legitimate reason for hope on Tuesday night. For one thing, the 2021 Handlepot winners have won six of their nine CL home games against German teams, and for another, a review of the past nine top-flight matches in front of their own fans shows a total of seven victories. It is also helpful that in four of the previous seven cases in which the Blues lost a CL first leg away from home, they still managed to advance to the next round.
Nevertheless, it should not be neglected that the star ensemble from the English capital under Graham Potter has only won a meagre ten of the total of 27 matches (seven draws, ten defeats) and can look back on just two victories from the last twelve encounters. A paltry five goals have been scored in that period. At least the dress rehearsal at home against Leeds was victorious. The narrow 1-0 home win, however, once again fell into the “lacklustre” category.
In order to make a suitable prediction before the return match between Chelsea and Dortmund, we therefore have to weigh up the impressions from the first leg against the disastrous results of the last week/months and are ultimately not convinced that the Potter team will win this match or even advance to the next round. Consequently, we prefer the double chance X2 after regulation time to the home win after 90 minutes.
Last Chelsea games:
Premier League
04/03/2023 – Chelsea FC 1 – 0 Leeds
26/02/2023 – Tottenham 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
18/02/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Southampton
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
Premier League
11/02/2023 – West Ham 1 – 1 FC Chelsea
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
From Borussia Dortmund’s point of view, the football year 2023 continues to be unrivalled in terms of superlatives. Although we are already in March and BVB has already played ten competitive matches in three different competitions, they have only managed to pick up victories to date.
The majority of these victories have been very close and sometimes lucky, although the Black and Yellows are currently putting in a huge effort, putting a lot of passion into the matches and therefore also earning their luck to a certain extent.
Has Dortmund’s luck run out?
On Friday night, coach Edin Terzic’s side won 2-1 in the top-of-the-table clash against RB Leipzig after a strong first half to keep pace with Bayern in the Bundesliga title race.
The next coup could now be achieved on the international stage. Ahead of the second match between Chelsea and Dortmund, the odds for the Westphalians to progress are currently in the range of 1.55-1.60.
Form beats statistics
How complicated the undertaking at Stamford Bridge will be, however, is underlined by various statistics. For example, BVB have lost seven of their last eight away knockout games in the Champions League. In addition, in the past five matches as guests in England in the top flight, BVB have only suffered defeats. Nevertheless, in five of the six cases in which the Black and Yellows won the first leg in Europe’s most important club competition, it was also enough to advance to the next round.
Apart from that, the top form and the self-confidence associated with it may even be the most important argument to put the odds on Borussia in focus between Chelsea and Dortmund. Looking at the expected course of the game, we can imagine that Terzic’s team, which has been very effective lately, will even score the first goal of the match.
In general, we are convinced that more goals will be scored than in the first leg. Chelsea will have to take more and more risks as the game progresses, while BVB has the quality to exploit the available spaces in the transition game. Nevertheless, we do not believe that the Bundesliga runners-up will go without conceding another goal. Regardless of whether Alexander Meyer will once again have to deputise for the stricken Gregor Kobel in the Ballspielverein box.
Last matches played by Dortmund:
Bundesliga
04/03/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
25/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
19/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 1 Hertha BSC
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Chelsea – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
The first leg three weeks ago was the first and so far only meeting between these two clubs. Karim Adeyemi scored the only goal of the evening with his remarkable solo over 60 metres. Especially in the final phase, the Black and Yellows had to tremble. Chelsea had many chances, but ultimately lost 1-0 and are under pressure ahead of the second leg on Tuesday evening.
Chelsea – Dortmund Tip
With Borussia Dortmund, the first of four remaining German teams has the chance to enter the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday evening. The starting position is decent after the 1-0 first leg win in front of a home crowd, but by no means comfortable. Nevertheless, lower betting odds are being offered on the in-form Bundesliga side advancing ahead of the second leg between Chelsea and Dortmund.
After ten competitive wins in ten attempts in 2023, the BVB players’ chests could hardly be broader. Terzic’s team is currently working on the necessary match luck, but must be careful at Stamford Bridge not to let themselves be pushed too far behind. Time and again, the runners-up in the German top flight must provide relief and, at best, even take the lead.
Given the starting situation and the impressions from the first leg, we expect at least three goals to be scored in normal time this time. We are therefore risking a bet of five units and betting on the over 2.5 in the Chelsea vs. Dortmund match.
