Will the Matildas still pull their heads out of the noose?

It’s sorting out. The first teams can already plan their return home from the Women’s World Cup. On Monday, it is highly likely that a big name will be eliminated.

It will be either the Olympic champions or the hosts. Both will meet in a direct duel and we take a look at the conditions under which both might still make it into the last 16 in our Canada vs Australia tip.

Ahead of the final match in this Group B, Nigeria are at the top of the standings. With four points, a draw against the already eliminated team from Ireland is definitely enough for the Africans. The Super Falcons can only be eliminated with a defeat if the parallel match goes completely against them. But the probability is rather low, as long as there is no big defeat.

That brings us back to our match. The Canadians also need one point to advance. The Matildas should not rely on a draw. That will only be enough if the Nigerians lose by more than two goals. Before kick-off between Canada and Australia, we therefore make the prediction that either the Olympic champions or the hosts will bow out of this tournament.

The pressure is clearly on the Australians. The betting provider Interwetten also favours Tony Gustavsson’s team, but we see at least the same quality on the side of the Canadians. So we wouldn’t necessarily bet on the Matildas continuing to dream of the title after this weekend, even though that would be extremely bitter for the atmosphere at this tournament.

Canada – Statistics & current form

The Canadian team continues to wait for a major World Cup tournament. The North Americans only really play to their strengths at the Olympic Games. There, they reached the semi-finals three times and even won the title in Tokyo two years ago. But the team has not become any younger since then. For a great Canadian women’s generation, this is probably the last chance to win a World Cup title.

Olympic champions under pressure

First and foremost, you have to mention Christine Sinclair. The now 40-year-old has played well over 300 international matches and scored almost 200 goals. With Sophie Schmidt, another veteran could be playing her last tournament. Overall, coach Beverly Priestman has a very experienced squad whose players are mainly under contract in the USA or England, which can be seen as a sign of quality.

There has been light and shade for the Canadians this year and that has been the impression through their first two games at the World Cup. They opened with a goalless draw against Nigeria after Christine Sinclair, of all people, missed a penalty shortly after the break. In the second match, the Maple Leafs fell behind 1-0 early on against the Republic of Ireland.

By then, the Canadians knew what had happened. Around half-time, they managed to turn the deficit around. First, the Irish helped themselves with an own goal just before the break. After the break, it was Adriana Leon who scored the 2-1 winner for Canada. If they can hold steady on Monday, we look at the odds for at least a point win for the Olympic champions between Canada and Australia.

Predicted Canada line-up:

Canada (Expected line-up) 4-2-3-1

Australia – Statistics & current form

After the opening win against the Republic of Ireland, which admittedly was not exhilarating but which the Matildas celebrated in front of 75,000 spectators in Sydney, the euphoria Down Under was great. The hosts will play for the title, they said, and the assessment was probably substantiated by victories against France and England in the preparation for the tournament.

With Sam Kerr in the play-offs?

But a World Cup like this has its very own laws. The Australians are facing elimination before the group final against Canada if they don’t manage a win or if the constellation in the standings miraculously changes in the event of a draw. Everything was fine for the Matildas until just before the break in their second World Cup match against Nigeria.

Emily van Egmond had just given her team a 1-0 lead and the last 16 was already within reach. But by the 72nd minute, Nigeria had turned the game around to make it 3-1. Alanna Kenney’s follow-up goal came too late in the tenth minute of stoppage time. At the moment, we would not necessarily make a prediction on the Matildas progressing before the match between Canada and Australia.

At least it looks like superstar Sam Kerr will be in the game. The prognosis was anything but good. Coach Tony Gustavsson even assumed that the Chelsea FC attacker would not play at the World Cup due to injury. The fact that the captain has now signalled her willingness to play shows how important this match is for the Australian women’s football team.

Predicted line-up of Australia:

Australia (Expected line-up) 4-4-2

Canada – Australia Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Monday will be only the third time that the two selection teams from Canada and Australia have faced each other in a competitive match. Nevertheless, after a whole series of friendly matches, there have been 16 duels between these two teams to date. In the direct comparison, the Canadians have a very narrow lead with 7:6 victories and three draws.

The last two duels took place about a year ago. In September 2022, the Canadians visited Australia for two test matches and prevailed twice. In total, the Maple Leafs have won the last three games against the Matildas. All in all, it sounds as if the hosts will have to say goodbye to the home World Cup as active participants on Monday.

Canada – Australia Tip

We think the Canada and Australia teams are both performing at about the same level and it could come down to little things in this group final on Monday. Both teams are under pressure as it could be the last World Cup game Down Under for both. While the Olympic champions from Canada could live with a draw, the Matildas need a win to advance.

The ingredients for an exciting match are definitely there. The hosts will be rooting for the Republic of Ireland against Nigeria in the parallel match. If the Africans lose, the Matildas could even manage a draw. That’s actually where we see the match going, and that’s why we’re leaning towards a score-split bet between Canada and Australia in the Bwin app.

The Australians, however, will try to take the three points and the longer the match is even, the more risk Tony Gustavsson’s team will have to take. In our opinion, this style of play can backfire against the Olympic champions and that is why we have decided to play the double odds 1X between Canada and Australia.