Will Bayern’s rivals miss out once again?
German fans have had to wait three weeks before their “favourite child”, the Bundesliga, returns from its brief hibernation next weekend. The first matchday after the turn of the year will not be a day of feeling out, because the agenda immediately includes some very interesting and explosive duels.
This first matchday of the second half of the season will open with FC Bayern against Borussia Mönchengladbach, which of course has an appealing back story in view of the record champion’s 5-0 defeat by the Foals in the DFB Pokal. The Nagelsmann team also failed to win against the team from the Lower Rhine in the Bundesliga opener in the summer… Can the outsiders turn things around in the empty Allianz Arena of all places?
Meanwhile, other eagerly awaited matches are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Among others, Borussia Dortmund travels to Frankfurt Eintracht in the Saturday evening match. A few hours earlier, Leverkusen will face Union Berlin, and in Fürth there will be a basement thriller between Spielvereinigung and VfB Stuttgart. Finally, on Sunday, the “Big City Clubs” Hertha and Cologne, among others, will meet.
Bayern vs. Gladbach – 07 January, 20:30
It is now just over two months since Borussia from Mönchengladbach dismantled FC Bayern 5-0 in the second round of the DFB Cup. What happened in the following eight to ten weeks, however, was certainly something no one would have thought possible at the time.
While the record champions went on to win seven of the last eight Bundesliga games and were crowned first-round champions, the Foals went into free fall. In the last five matches alone, only one meagre point was earned. Among other things, they suffered embarrassing defeats against Freiburg, Leipzig and in the Rhineland derby with 1. FC Köln. Nevertheless, Adi Hütter has “survived” the winter break and will also be on the bench on Friday evening in the first match of the new year at the Allianz Arena.
Will Hütter remain Nagelsmann’s final opponent?
Naturally, everything points to a certain victory for FCB, although Julian Nagelsmann will have to do without one or the other player after several positive tests. Caution is also advisable because the Munich team has never scored fewer points against any other club in the history of Germany’s top division (1.7 per game) and also has a weaker win ratio (48%).
Nevertheless, we are far from believing in a surprise coup for the visitors. Instead, we expect Adi Hütter to lose out to his opposite number Julian Nagelsmann for the second time in their eighth encounter, and probably by at least two goals. That’s why we’re adding the handicap victory of the favourites in the Bundesliga on matchday 18 to our betting tips.
Leverkusen vs. Union Berlin – 08 January, 15:30
One of two chasing duels takes place on Saturday afternoon at the BayArena. Fourth-placed Leverkusen welcome seventh-placed Union Berlin. For the capital club, the aim is to remain unbeaten against the Rhinelanders for the fourth time in a row.
From a purely statistical point of view, this does not seem to be a hopeless task for the Eisern, as Leverkusen have only won once on matchday 18 in the past eight years. The last four home games on the first matchday of the second half of the season were all lost. To make matters worse, the Seoane eleven slipped into a negative vortex before the winter break, picking up just one point from three games.
Will there be goals on both sides
Although the Berliners also struggled with a slight dip in form in the meantime, coach Urs Fischer’s team went into the Christmas break with a 1-0 win at VfL Bochum. To build on this, Urs Fischer in particular will have to break a spell, as Union have failed to win any of the three away games so far in which the Swiss coach has faced a compatriot on the touchline.
Since there are arguments in both directions, we will forego the betting odds on the three-way market in this exciting match in the Bundesliga on matchday 18 and meanwhile tend towards both teams scoring at least once. The Werkself only conceded four goals during the season. In total, they have conceded 28 goals, which is seven more than their opponents.
Fürth vs. VfB Stuttgart – 08 January, 15:30 hrs
The relegation thriller in the Bundesliga on matchday 18 – this prediction is permitted – will be delivered by Greuther Fürth and VfB Stuttgart. The Spielvereinigung, who are bottom of the league with only five points, have little hope of staying in the top flight. The Swabians are far more optimistic, but with only 17 points they have also had an unsatisfactory first half of the season.
Fürth’s third unbeaten home game in a row?
Looking at the cloverleaf’s still disastrous home record, it is absolutely understandable that the Stuttgart side are seen as favourites. In general, we wouldn’t be surprised if coach Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team, which struggled with enormous injury problems in the Hinrunde, starts the new year with renewed energy.
Even though the Franconians have only lost one of six home games in professional football against VfB so far and most recently went without defeat in two consecutive games at their own stadium for the first time in their own Bundesliga history, we think an away treble is the more likely scenario. It might not be quite as clear-cut as in the first leg, when the Swabians got the upper hand with 5:1, but we are still aiming for a win for the visitors.
RB Leipzig vs. Mainz – 08 January, 15:30
The clash between RB Leipzig and Mainz is at the same time the meeting of one of the most positive surprises of the first half of the season and one of the disappointments of the first 17 match days. The Rheinhessen side currently have two points more on their account, which is impressive evidence of the level of satisfaction with which the clubs are starting the new year 2022.
The pressure is clearly on the Saxons, who have not lost any of their five home games in the Bundesliga against the Nullfünfer (four wins, one draw) and have even scored 20 goals in total! But: The most recent two duels between these teams both went to FSV. In the first leg, too, a Mainz team that was severely short of players surprised the Champions League participants and won sensationally 1:0.
Did the break do the Leipzigers any good?
At that time, however, Jesse Marsch was still on the Bulls’ bench. In the meantime, Domenico Tedesco has taken over and it can be assumed that the central city team will now find its old strength again. The first step could already follow on Saturday afternoon, especially since the guests from the carnival stronghold recently lost three times in a row away from home.
However, we have another betting recommendation in mind, because Leipzig and Mainz are the two teams that have conceded the fewest goals in the first half next to FC Bayern. Leipzig have conceded seven goals in the first 45 minutes, while Mainz have only conceded six. Accordingly, we combine a likely point win for the home side with the addition that a maximum of one goal will be conceded in the first half.
Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg – 08 January, 15:30
Ricardo Pepi is the name of the young man who will go down in Bundesliga history as a record transfer this winter. However, the 18-year-old US-American did not move to the big FC Bayern, Dortmund, Wolfsburg or Leipzig, but to FC Augsburg. Never before have the Fuggerstädter paid so much for a new player. According to media reports, a fixed sum of 14 million euros has been set.
However, it is doubtful whether the new prodigy will be used on Saturday afternoon, especially since Pepi first has to get used to the new tempo in the Bundesliga and integrate himself into the team. Whether with or without the youngster from the States, the task for FCA will be extremely complicated in Hoffenheim. Because: Only against Hannover 96 has TSG won more often in the Bundesliga than against the Augsburgers.
Hoffenheim are strong at home
Of course, it also has to be taken into account that the Kraichgauer have collected an impressive 16 points from their last six home games and have generally played an extremely strong first half of the season. Compared to the previous season, that’s nine points more at this point. The 35 goals scored also underline the offensive power of Kramaric and Co. In the first leg, the Croatian set up three of the four goals in the 4-0 away win at the WWK Arena.
Although FC Augsburg lost only one of their last six games in the Bundesliga before the winter break, betting tips on coach Sebastian Hoeneß’ team are our first option on matchday 18. We even believe in a start-finish victory and therefore opt for the double HT1/FT1 result. Only three teams were ahead at the break more often than the Sinsheimers in the first half of the season. Augsburg, on the other hand, rank second to last in the classification of the first 45 minutes.
Freiburg vs. Bielefeld – 08 January, 15:30
Without a doubt, SC Freiburg was the positive discovery of the Hinserie. The Breisgauers have never finished the first half of the Bundesliga in third place. In addition, the Sport-Club, together with FC Bayern, conceded the fewest goals of all teams. Thanks to the success on the last matchday before the winter break against Leverkusen, Streich’s team can even dream quietly of the top flight.
In order to defend their current position, a home win against Arminia Bielefeld on Saturday afternoon is virtually mandatory. However, the fact that coach Frank Kramer’s team have only lost two of their last seven matches in the league shows that the match against the relegation candidates will not be a foregone conclusion. Thanks to two 2-0 victories against Bochum and in Leipzig, the East Westphalians are now directly in touch with the relegation zone.
Now it is also against a kind of favourite opponent, as Arminia have won five of the nine Bundesliga games against Freiburg so far. In the first leg on the first day of the match, the clubs drew goalless.
Can Bielefeld also surprise after the winter break?
In our eyes, there are many indications that not many goals will be scored this time. On the one hand, of course, because of Sport-Club’s strong defence, but on the other hand also because of the usually less spectacular away games that Bielefeld deliver. Fabian Klos and his colleagues have only scored six goals away from home. At the same time, they only conceded nine goals.
In six of Bielefeld’s last seven Bundesliga games, betting on the under 2.5 would have been crowned with success. The Black Forest side, however, only scored more than three goals on four occasions throughout the entire season. We therefore combine the home team’s point win with the addition of a maximum of three goals in the course of the match and can dust off a 1.65 at the top at Bwin.
Frankfurt vs. Dortmund – 08 January, 18:30
For Borussia Dortmund, the 2022 must-win year begins with an extremely uncomfortable task. Not only is Eintracht traditionally very strong at home, but the fact that BVB have not won any of their last seven matches in Frankfurt (four draws, three defeats) is already causing worry lines on coach Marco Rose’s forehead. However, to reassure all Borussia fans, the Black and Yellows have not won more often against any other opponent in the German top flight than against the SGE.
On the other hand, the Hessians have been in impressive form, winning six of their last seven Bundesliga games and working their way up from the bottom of the table to sixth position. They have even won three in a row at home, including against Leverkusen and Union Berlin.
Sixth Glasner defeat in sixth game against BVB?
But the hope from Dortmund’s point of view is Oliver Glasner. Yes, that’s right. The Austrian has lost all five of his games as head coach in the Bundesliga against BVB. Moreover, the ex-Wolfsburg coach has conceded more goals against no other team than against the current second-placed team.
The bottom line for us is that it is too risky to place bets on the winner of this match in the Saturday evening Bundesliga matchday 18. The top odds of just under 2.00 on Borussia’s success are too low for us, so we either aim for a bet on the X or tend to play the odds on many goals. The over 2.5 is well remunerated, the over 3.5 promises even more exciting value, especially in view of the fact that the first leg already went to the black and yellow with 5:2.
Hertha vs. Cologne – 09 January, 15:30
The duel between two big city clubs on Sunday afternoon is entirely under the star of two different coaching characters. On the one hand, the impulsive Steffen Baumgart, who hardly leaves a situation uncommented on during a game and thus tries to keep his team’s concentration high. On the other hand, Tayfun Korkut is a very calm colleague in his field who focuses on training work and tends to slip into the role of observer in matches.
It would be presumptuous to make a general statement about which type of coach works better. Before the winter break, both coaches had success with their style. Cologne ended their first half of the season with two wins and eighth place, while Hertha also took a step in the right direction with a home win against Borussia Dortmund.
Who can build on the good performances before the winter break?
If another win against the Geißböcke at home follows, Tayfun Korkut would indeed be the first Hertha coach since Lucien Favre in 2007 to win all of his first three home games in the Bundesliga. Nevertheless, the task will be difficult, especially since the Rhinelanders have not lost to the “old lady” in four direct duels.
In the first Sunday match of the Bundesliga on matchday 18, the odds suggest an exciting match. Since we agree with this assessment and want to focus on an alternative betting market instead, it seems most sustainable to us to bet on both teams scoring at least once.
Bochum vs. Wolfsburg – 09 January, 17:30
After a promising start to the season, VfL Wolfsburg increasingly morphed into the problem child of the Bundesliga over the second half of 2021. Under Florian Kohfeldt, the Wolves lost five league games in a row and were eliminated from the Champions League at the bottom of the group. Even though the ex-Bremer promised that we would see a completely different VfL in 2022, it remains to be seen whether the buck can be turned in the Autostadt.
Perhaps VfL Bochum comes at the right time as an opponent, since the Green-Whites have won all of their last six Bundesliga games against promoted teams. In addition, they are unbeaten in five direct duels against the Ruhr team. On the other hand, the Reis team had a very good first half of the season, picking up 14 of their 20 points at home. Without the support of the fans, however, a continuation of this series also seems questionable.
Given the statistics that both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet six times in a row recently, we expect a goal or two to be scored this time as well. At the end of the Bundesliga on matchday 18, betting tips on the over 2.5 between Bochum and Wolfsburg are therefore our first betting option.
