Will BVB pass Bayern?
In the Spanish La Liga there is the duel between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, on the island Manchester United against Liverpool and in the Bundesliga Dortmund against Bayern. Next Saturday it’s that time again. The two best and most successful teams in the country in recent years will face each other in the German classic.
The table constellation provides an additional attraction, after all, the Black and Yellows have the opportunity to take over the top spot in the Beletage of German football as part of Matchday 14. The prerequisite, however, would be a BVB victory, which has not been seen in this form in the last six competitive match duels between these teams.
In addition to the eagerly awaited top match, which will take place on Saturday evening, there are other interesting games on the second Advent weekend. Among others, Union Berlin and RB Leipzig will face each other on Friday. On Sunday, Tayfun Korkut will celebrate his comeback in the highest German league. As Pal Dardai’s successor, the football coach will travel with Hertha to Stuttgart, the city of his birth.
Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig – 03 December, 20:30
RB Leipzig just can’t get going this season. After 13 matchdays, the central city side have just 18 points to their name – the fewest ever at this point in a Bundesliga season. While it took until matchday 30 in 2020/21 before the fifth defeat of the season was recorded and there were only four defeats in 2019/20, five of the aforementioned 13 games have already been lost in the current season.
To make matters worse on Friday evening, head coach Jesse Marsch and assistant Achim Beierlorzer are both likely to be unavailable. Marco Kurth will therefore probably sit on the bench and be supported by U19 coach Daniel Mayer. In terms of personnel, there was at least a slight all-clear, even though the training week went anything but smoothly. Among other things, one unit even had to be cancelled due to some positive tests.
Whether the Leipzigers, who are two points behind the Eisern in the standings, can actually win their first game in nine away games without a win in the Bundesliga is highly doubtful.
Union Berlin have lost only one of their last 23 home games in the top flight (twelve wins, ten draws) and have lost only one of their four home duels against the Saxons. We were all the more surprised that such high odds on the double chance 1X were offered in the first match of the Bundesliga on matchday 14. An interesting value cannot be denied.
Leverkusen vs. Fürth – 04 December, 15:30 hrs
13 games, one draw, twelve defeats as well as 39 goals conceded already. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are preparing to break all negative records in the Bundesliga this season. In fact, there has never been a team with such a poor interim record at this point in a Bundesliga season. They have lost all of their last eleven games, and the previous week they were beaten 6-3 at home by TSG Hoffenheim.
Away from home, the cloverleaf has not been able to win anything so far. They have lost all seven of their matches away from home, with a goal difference of 7:24. Six of these seven defeats came by at least a two-goal difference. On average, the difference between the home team and the promoted team was almost three goals.
That is why it would be quite unexpected if Leverkusen, of all teams, who were able to boost their self-confidence with a 3:1 away win in Leipzig the previous week, were to have a hard time at home against the bottom team. Although the Werkself have already lost three of their six home games this season, everything points to Florian Wirtz and Co. landing a commanding three points. In the duel with the clearest signs in the Bundesliga on matchday 14, betting tips on the host’s handicap success seem to be the most logical option.
Hoffenheim vs. Frankfurt – 04 December, 15:30
Two confident teams face each other in the Kraichgau on Saturday afternoon. On the one hand, TSG Hoffenheim, who have won all of their last four home games and have quietly worked their way up to fifth place in the table. On the other side is Frankfurt Eintracht, who have won four of their last five games and have long since caught up with the top half of the table.
Is Eintracht’s winning streak against TSG coming to an end?
The direct comparison speaks in favour of the Hessians, who have always won the last six Bundesliga games against the Sinsheimers. In the past eight games in the Bundesliga, the SGE have always scored at least one goal against the Blue and Whites. In general, we can expect a high-scoring encounter, especially as the magic mark of 2.5 goals has only not been broken in one of the last six duels.
If we also had to decide on a bet on the three-way market, the choice would fall on TSG, who have really convinced us at home so far and have the best goal difference at home behind the “Big Three” Dortmund, Bayern and RB Leipzig (+9).
Mainz vs. Wolfsburg – 04 December, 15:30
Fans of spectacular attacking football did not always get their money’s worth in the pairing of Mainz against Wolfsburg in recent years. In a review of the past 13 duels in the Bundesliga, more than two goals were scored in only three cases. If you only look at the home games of the zero-fives, there have already been twelve (!) consecutive encounters between these teams in which a maximum of two goals were scored.
However, history is by no means the only reason why we expect a defensive game again this time. For one thing, only two teams have conceded fewer goals than FSV in their own stadium this season. On the other hand, after conceding seven goals in the last three games, the visitors from the Autostadt will certainly have worked on their defensive shortcomings.
Furthermore, two teams meet that we consider to be on a par at the current stage of the season. Not only because they are separated in the tableau by just two places and two points, but more importantly because of their balancing strengths and weaknesses. While the Wolves conceded 42% of their goals from set pieces, only 12% of the goals scored by the Rheinhessen team came from stationary balls. There is a lot to be said for an even match with few goals scored.
Augsburg vs. Bochum – 04 December, 15:30
Just a few weeks ago, no forecast for the relegation battle would have been complete without the clubs FC Augsburg and VfL Bochum. In the meantime, however, the tide has turned somewhat. The reason is the rising form curves of both clubs in recent weeks.
FCA conceded only two defeats in the past six matchdays and, in the course of this upward trend, were also able to put FC Bayern in their place at home with a 2-1 win. In general, the home record is quite respectable, as none of the last four matches in the WWK Arena was lost. Ten out of a possible twelve points impressively underline the new home strength and are partly responsible for the fact that the Fuggerstädter are rightly favourites in the clash between 16th and 13th in the Bundesliga on matchday 14 according to the odds.
Although VfL Bochum are the team of the moment in the lower half of the table thanks to four wins from the last six games, it should not be forgotten that the Ruhr team has lost six of its seven games away from home.
Moreover, the Reis team cannot always rely on its qualities in the final phase. A full 50% of the total of only twelve goals scored were scored in the last 15 minutes. On balance, the home win seems slightly more likely, which is why we’re hedging the FCA treble on the two-way market with the DNB addition.
Bielefeld vs. Cologne – 04 December, 15:30
Actually, every football fan should have got goosebumps last weekend when they saw Steffen Baumgart running alone into the corner after the final whistle of his Geißböcke’ 4:1 derby win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, celebrating with chants and briefly letting his emotions run free.
Exactly these images are symbolic of the cathedral city’s successful season to date, which has seen them lose only three of their 13 games this season and, currently in tenth place, have already managed to put five points between themselves and the relegation zone. Even more impressive than the points tally, however, is the very attractive and, above all, courageous offensive football that Anthony Modeste and Co. bring to the pitch week after week. bring to the pitch week in, week out.
The Rhinelanders are also desperate to score at the Alm and at the same time eliminate the only black mark of this season. The Baumgart eleven is still waiting for its first win away from home after six attempts. Only five of the total of 22 goals have been scored away from home.
Will Bielefeld keep it 0-0 for long again?
Now it’s against a defensively quite stable opponent who allows very little, especially in the first 45 minutes. The previous week, the East Westphalians held on to a 0-0 draw at the Allianz Arena for a long time and ultimately only lost 1-0. Looking back at the past four first halves, Stefan Ortega has conceded just one goal.
That, in turn, matches the impressions of Cologne, who scored 18 of the aforementioned 22 goals after the change of ends. Given these statistics, a bet on a maximum of one goal in the first half is definitely worth considering, despite relatively low betting odds. A bet on a completely goalless first half would also be a conceivable alternative.
Dortmund vs. Bayern – 04 December, 18:30
On Saturday evening it’s that time again! The game of all games in German football is on the agenda. Borussia Dortmund welcomes FC Bayern. At the top of the league table, both teams are currently running circles around each other; Munich are one point ahead of BVB, so the Black and Yellows actually have the chance to take over the place in the sun in their own stadium.
However, various statistics show how difficult this undertaking will be for Marco Rose’s team. For example, the record champions have not lost any of the last 15 games in which the first team met the second (eleven wins, four draws). Moreover, the most recent six competitive duels have all gone to the Munich side, who have also left Signal Iduna Park as winners three times in a row.
Can Nagelsmann improve his BVB record?
From Dortmund’s point of view, however, there are also one or two encouraging signs. Julian Nagelsmann, for example, has only won one of eleven meetings with Borussia as Bundesliga coach. In addition, BVB has won eleven Bundesliga matches at home in a row this season. In the current season alone, Dortmund has celebrated seven wins in seven home games!
In any case, it will be interesting to see to what extent Erling Haaland is already fully fit again. In his 50th Bundesliga game, the Norwegian made his comeback the previous week and also scored the 50th goal of his BL career. If he plays from the start, there could be a shootout with Robert Lewandowski. The ex-Dortmund player scored more often against BVB than against any other club in the German top flight.
All in all, it is a little too tricky for us to place bets on the outcome of the Bundesliga’s top match on matchday 14. Instead, we tend to bet on at least four goals being scored in the course of the match. Bayern have never conceded in their last nine away games, while the over 3.5 would have gone through in four of the seven black-yellow home victories. Spectacle will therefore be guaranteed on Saturday evening.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hertha – 05 December, 15:30
On Sunday afternoon it will also be exciting once again. The focus between VfB Stuttgart and Hertha BSC will then be on Tayfun Korkut, the new coach of the Berliners and Dardai’s successor. So far, the German-Turkish has not been able to celebrate any lasting successes in the Bundesliga, yet Fredi Bobic chose him of all people to awaken the “Big City Club” from its slumber. To the chagrin of many supporters, by the way.
For Korkut himself, it is a trip down memory lane, as he was once under contract with the Swabians. In purely statistical terms, however, the Stuttgart-born coach’s debut is not under a good star. Hertha have been winless against VfB for five away games in the Bundesliga and are travelling to Bad Cannstatt at a really bad time.
The Swabians returned to winning ways in the previous week with a 2-1 victory over Mainz and also have many more options available again in terms of personnel than they did a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that the “old lady” will at least keep the first 45 minutes even. In all likelihood, Korkut will be concerned with being defensively stable and not falling behind. Therefore, there is much to be said for a 0:0 at half-time. In general, in the first Sunday match of the Bundesliga on matchday 14, a prediction on the X at the break is a promising and not illogical solution.
Gladbach vs. Freiburg – 05 December, 17:30
With just 18 points after 13 matchdays, Borussia Mönchengladbach is undoubtedly one of the disappointments of the current season. In fact, coach Adi Hütter’s team had many plans without the multiple burden of the European Cup, but so far they have lacked consistency and, above all, effectiveness. This is illustrated by the fact that no other Bundesliga team lags as far behind its own expected goals value as the Foals (-5.7).
The Rhinelanders may be able to defy this statistic on Sunday, as SCF will be a welcome guest at Borussia Park. Gladbach have not lost any of their last 17 home games in the Bundesliga against Sport-Club (eleven wins, six draws). In addition, the Hütter eleven is also still unbeaten at home this season.
The Breisgau side, meanwhile, have recently suffered three defeats in a row and have lost the momentum for the time being. Certainly, Christian Streich’s charges must always be given some credit, but in view of the drop in confidence and the miserable record in Mönchengladbach, we think betting tips on a home win for the team from the Lower Rhine are the better option in the last match of the Bundesliga on matchday 14.
