Does United shine in the unfamiliar underdog role?
Sweeping past Wolverhampton 6-0 last Saturday, Brighton continued to head towards qualification for a European competition with a performance that Jürgen Klopp recently described as one of the best team performances he has ever seen. If the bet on the Seagulls’ home win in the catch-up game between Brighton and Manchester United goes through, the Seagulls could climb to sixth place.
The fact that the last two Premier League games against the Red Devils were both won speaks for Brighton. However, Manchester United is a big opponent at the AMEX Stadium. The English record champions have lost only one of their eight nine competitive matches (five wins, two draws). The forecast for Brighton against Manchester United is accordingly consistent with the Red Devils maintaining their Champions League spot in the English south.
This away game will certainly not be a foregone conclusion for Manchester United. Not only do Brighton have the second-best home defense in the Premier League, conceding just 14 goals, but the Seagulls have won three of their last five Premier League home games against the Red Devils (two defeats). However, because the betting odds clearly swing in the direction of the home side, there is an incredibly great value for betting on the English record champions.
Accordingly, it is interesting to bet on an away win for Erik ten Hag’s team, especially since United also leads the head-to-head comparison with 20 wins from 30 meetings.
Brighton – Statistics & current form
Brighton & Hove Albion have now been in the Premier League since 2017. After four years in the relegation battle, the southerners already mixed up the league in the past season and ended up in ninth place under Graham Potter.
When the long-serving coach left for Chelsea, Roberto De Zerbi took over as Seagulls coach this season. Not only did the Italian continue the successful work of his predecessor, but he shaped the club into a serious contender for a European spot.
The Europa League completely in our own hands
While Brighton are currently only eighth in the table, they have up to three games fewer than the clubs ahead of them. Just one win from the remaining games is enough for the Seagulls to overtake Tottenham and Aston Villa in one fell swoop and take sixth place.
Accordingly, hopes are high on England’s south coast that next year’s Europa League will be played at the AMEX Stadium. If the prediction for Albion’s home win at Brighton against Manchester United comes true, it would be a huge step in that direction.
The second best home defense in the Premier League
The fact that only two of the last nine Premier League games have been lost (five wins, two draws) speaks in favor of Roberto De Zerbi’s troops. Furthermore, Brighton have won three of their last five Premier League home games against Manchester United (two defeats).
Added to this is an overall good home record. In the Premier League, the Seagulls have won eight of their 15 home games so far in the 2022/23 season (three draws, four defeats), with only Manchester United (eight) conceding fewer home goals than Brighton (14).
Last matches played by Brighton:
Premier League
- 29/04/2023 – Brighton 6 – 0 Wolverhampton
- 27/04/2023 – Nottingham Forest 3 – 1 Brighton
FA Cup
- 23/04/2023 Brighton (6) 0 – 0 (7) Manchester United
Premier League
- 15/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 1 – 2 Brighton
- 08/04/2023 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Brighton
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Manchester United started the new season with the objective of qualifying for the Champions League again after a disappointing sixth place in the final table of the 2021/22 season. After slight teething troubles, the Red Devils are now on the right track.
The English record champions have lost only one of their last eight competitive matches (five wins, two draws) and are in fourth place with six games still to play. If United can win away at Brighton in the second leg, they could overtake third-placed Newcastle United.
The fourth most away wins in the Premier League
While somewhat problematic, Erik ten Hag’s squad has struggled mightily against teams in the top half of the table, especially away from home. The Red Devils have won only one of their last 13 Premier League away games against teams that were in the league’s top ten at the time of the match (three draws, nine defeats).
Overall, however, the English record champion’s away record is respectable. Only Arsenal (eleven), Manchester City (ten) and Newcastle (eight) have celebrated more Premier League away wins than Manchester United (seven) so far in the 2022/23 season.
Good memories of the last guest game in Brighton
It’s all the more surprising that the odds are so clearly against Erik ten Hag’s Brighton side against Manchester United, who just punched their ticket to the FA Cup final away to the Seagulls on April 23, 2023.
Admittedly, the Red Devils only achieved this triumph in a penalty shootout. Nevertheless, the English record champions confirmed their recent high in form in this match, which could lead to a very conciliatory end to the season if the first overall FA Cup victory in seven years is added to the very likely qualification for the Champions League.
Last Manchester United games:
Premier League
- 30/04/2023 – Manchester United 1 – 0 Aston Villa
- 28/04/2023 – Tottenham 2 – 2 Manchester United
FA Cup
- 23/04/2023 – Brighton (6) 0 – 0 (7) Manchester United
Europa League Final Stage
- 21/04/2023 – Sevilla FC 3 – 0 Manchester United
Premier League
- 16/04/2023 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 2 Manchester United
Brighton – Manchester United Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 5 – 5 – 20
A total of 30 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far and with 20 wins, Manchester United clearly leads the head-to-head comparison. Most recently, however, the Seagulls won two consecutive Premier League duels against the English record champions. For the first time ever, Brighton could now take the full six points in a season against the Red Devils.
Brighton – Manchester United tip
With Brighton against Manchester United, the betting odds remarkably swing in the direction of the Seagulls, who celebrated a brilliant 6-0 home win over Wolverhampton most recently, but lost 2-1 to relegation candidates Nottingham in the match before that. The Red Devils seem to be a little more consistent in this respect, having already picked up eleven more points in league play than the southerners.
Particularly because of the questionable odds offered by the bookmakers, it makes a lot of sense to join the supposed underdog betting in this match and play the tip on the Red Devils to win away at Brighton against Manchester United. After all, Manchester United have also won 20 of their previous 30 competitive matches against Brighton.
