Will the Selecao defend their top spot?
All over the world, World Cup qualifying is entering the decisive phase. In South America, two out of four tickets have already been awarded to Brazil and Argentina, but that doesn’t really make anyone frown in surprise. In the last three matchdays, the other competitors will have to qualify for the World Cup in third and fourth place respectively – or move into the hopeful round of the intercontinental playoffs in fifth place.
The Selecao will use the upcoming matches mainly to prepare for the World Cup already. Coach Tite can try out different players in the various positions or perhaps even rehearse a different tactic. One thing is certain: the record world champions will not be worse off in the end than they were at the second position.
For the opponents from Paraguay, on the other hand, the situation looks bad. Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s team is currently only ninth in the South American Group of Ten.
With a six-point gap to fifth place, however, the Guaranies would need an away win. If the visitors don’t win and Uruguay, currently fifth, score at home against Venezuela, the dream is over. In any case, we are holding back on betting on a win for the visitors in the clash between Brazil and Paraguay, which effectively means the Guaranies are out of the tournament.
Brazil – Statistics & current form
After Germany and Denmark, the Brazilians were the third team to safely qualify for the World Cup in Qatar. To be honest, a World Cup without the Selecao is also unimaginable. It is already clear that the South Americans will be one of the favourites for the title at the end of the year, and until then there is still plenty of time to find the best formation.
Make-less World Cup qualifying in their own stadium
The Brazilians have been very stable in recent months. In the last 22 games, there has only been one defeat – in the Copa America final against arch-rivals Argentina. In the current World Cup qualifiers, the Selecao have won all six home matches. That’s why we expect the odds on a home win between Brazil and Paraguay to be right on Wednesday night too.
Last Thursday there was a remarkable match in Ecuador. After just 20 minutes, both teams were decimated after being sent off. In addition, Brazil’s keeper Alisson Becker saw red twice later in the game, but both times the Liverpool goalkeeper was allowed to continue after video evidence. In the end, they parted with a 1-1 draw after Casemiro put the Selecao 1-0 ahead early on.
Alisson Becker will be in the box against Paraguay. However, Emerson and Eder Militao will be absent after receiving a traffic light card and a yellow suspension respectively. Coach Tite will also have to do without several injured players. Among others, Neymar and Roberto Firmino are missing in attack. Lucas Verissimo is also not in the squad. Some changes in the Selecao should nevertheless be expected. Casemiro and Vinicius Junior should almost certainly get a breather.
Predicted line-up of Brazil:
Alisson – Alex Sandro, Marquinhos, Thiago Silva, Dani Alves – Fabinho, Fred – Antony, Coutinho, Raphinha – Gabriel Barbosa – Coach: Tite
Last matches played by Brazil:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
01/27 2022 – Ecuador 1 – 1 Brazil
11/17 2021 – Argentina 0 – 0 Brazil
11/12 2021 – Brazil 1 – 0 Colombia
10/15 2021 – Brazil 4 – 1 Uruguay
10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil
Paraguay – Statistics & current form
The Guaranies have missed the last two World Cups. In all likelihood, there will be the inglorious hat-trick of botched qualifiers before the World Cup in Qatar. Criticism at home is high and Guillermo Barros Schelotto may not be coach in Paraguay for too much longer, even though the Argentine has only been in charge since last October. Fans and media are already calling for a new direction in order to be competitive in the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup.
Goal drought for the Guaranies
With the new coach, the team from Paraguay has not yet managed a single goal. In total, the Guaranies have been without a win and a goal for six games. Against this background, it would be presumptuous to expect a win on Wednesday night. In the clash between Brazil and Paraguay, the forecast tends towards a win for the Selecao.
The Paraguayans probably lost their last chance to qualify for the World Cup in their last match, when Uruguay were the guests in Asuncion. Shortly after the break, the Urus scored the decisive goal to win 1-0. In injury time, captain Gustavo Gomez was sent off with a red card and will now miss Brazil with a suspension.
At the moment, it remains undisclosed that Paraguay does not have the quality in its squad that other teams in South America can boast. Therefore, it is no surprise that the ticket to Qatar can only be solved with a miracle. Even a point in Belo Horizonte would almost be a sensation, no matter which team Guillermo Barros Schelotto plays.
Predicted Paraguay line-up:
Silva – Arzamendi, Alonso, Patino, Escobar – Rojas, Sanchez, Almiron, Ojeda – Sanabria, Gonzalez – coach: Barros Schelotto
Last matches played by Paraguay:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
01/28 2022 – Paraguay 0 – 1 Uruguay
11/17 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Paraguay
11/12 2021 – Paraguay 0 – 1 Chile
10/14 2021 – Bolivia 4 – 0 Paraguay
10/11 2021 – Chile 2 – 0 Paraguay
Brazil – Paraguay Direct comparison / H2H balance
In total, the national teams from Brazil and Paraguay have crossed paths 81 times. The direct comparison is a clear affair for the Selecao, who are 48:11 ahead after victories. The Guaranies, however, have managed another 21 draws, which makes their record at least a little more bearable. The Brazilians have won the last three direct duels without conceding a goal.
The last encounter took place in the current World Cup qualifiers in Asuncion in June last year. The Brazilians took a 1-0 lead through Neymar after just four minutes, but struggled for a long time. It was not until the 90th minute that Lucas Paqueta made everything clear with the 2:0. We can now expect a similar game and result in Belo Horizonte.
Brazil – Paraguay Tip
How seriously do the Brazilians take the game against Paraguay? The Selecao don’t need points, but Tite’s team is of course indebted to the Belo Horizonte crowd and the wider fans. Even though the Brazilians are fielding the 1B team, it should still be enough for a win, especially as they will hardly want to squander their unblemished home record in World Cup qualifying against Paraguay.
The Paraguayans have not scored in six international matches. Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s side are far too unthreatening to take their last chance of the World Cup in Qatar with a win at the Selecao.
The Brazilians’ absences are easily compensated for. Coach Tite can field several quality teams whether Neymar and co. are there or not. The Selecao’s line-up should not be a problem and that is why we have decided to play the betting odds on a win for the home side in the match between Brazil and Paraguay.
