Does BVB continue to put pressure on Bayern?

There are only five games left in this Bundesliga season and somehow this season is really fun. It’s not just exciting this year in terms of relegation and qualification for international competitions. At last, the German top flight also has a real race for the championship again, which will probably only be decided in the final sprint. In the Bochum vs. Dortmund match, our tip goes in the direction that BVB will come out ahead of FC Bayern with an away win and build up pressure on the record champions.

Before the start of this matchday 30, BVB is one point ahead of Bayern Munich with 60 points. Borussia has not been at the top of the standings at this point of the season since the 2011/12 championship season. The last time there was a change in the league leader on the last five matchdays of a series was in the 2006/07 season, when VfB Stuttgart caught Schalke 04. The statistics therefore suggest that Edin Terzic’s team can break FC Bayern’s championship streak this season.

VfL Bochum has other worries ahead of this little Revierderby. Thomas Letsch’s team seemed to have already pulled away from the relegation battle in the Bundesliga, but is now back in the thick of it. They currently have 27 points and rank 15th. This means that VfL has a cushion of two points on the relegation place and three on the direct relegation places. The hosts will certainly give their all at Hamburger Straße on Friday, but in our estimation, the forecast between Bochum and Dortmund has to go to an away win.

This is also due to the fact that there is no longer a mentality problem at BVB. If you are on course for the title five matchdays before the end of the season, then you have to leave blood, sweat and tears on the pitch and currently it looks like Borussia is ready to do that.

Bochum – statistics & current form

Thomas Letsch has first given VfL Bochum back their home strength after his enthronement. VfL won the first five games under his direction at Castroper Straße. Especially in this so important phase of the season, there is not much of that now. The Revierklub has now lost four of its last five home games in the top flight. But especially when things get tight, you have to get your points in your own arena.

Not enough opponent pressure in important zones

In total, Bochum have only picked up two wins from their last eleven competitive games. One reason for this is the game against the ball. VfL has allowed the most shots on goal of any Bundesliga team in the 2023 calendar year. This also results in the highest factor in terms of expected goals against a club. That sounds more like you can neglect the odds on a home win in the derby between Bochum and Dortmund.

Away things are going quite well with three unbeaten games. Why Castroper Straße has lost its reputation as a fortress in the relegation battle is hard to say. Last weekend, VfL suffered its biggest home defeat under Thomas Letsch. The Bochum side lost 5-1 to VfL Wolfsburg and it could have been even worse. One bright spot was young Moritz Broschinski, who scored the consolation goal and came to Bochum from the second team of Borussia Dortmund.

VfL will have to defend with everything they have on Friday. A problem for the Bochum team is also evident when it comes to standards. Apparently, there are concentration weaknesses on resting balls. The Revierklub has conceded the most goals in the entire Bundesliga after standard situations this season. Considering that BVB is the best team in the league in this respect in 2023 in particular, it could be problematic with free kicks or corners against VfL Bochum on Friday.

Last matches played by Bochum:

Bundesliga

• 22/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 5 VfL Wolfsburg
• 16/04/2023 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 VfL Bochum
• 09/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 2 – 3 VfB Stuttgart
• 01/04/2023  –  Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 1 VfL Bochum
• 18/03/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 0 RB Leipzig

Dortmund – statistics & current form

Will Borussia Dortmund withstand the pressure and actually snatch the championship trophy from Bayern Munich this year? There are certainly signs that point in that direction. BVB fields the most successful team in the Bundesliga in 2023. At the right time, Edin Terzic has brought his team into shape. Since the turn of the year, there has been only one defeat in 14 Bundesliga games. During this period, the Black and Yellows have picked up a whopping ten points more than FC Bayern.

Malen hits and misses

One of the secrets of their success is their offense, which is now as strong as a bear. In the 14 games this year, BVB has scored a strong 41 goals. That’s an average of almost three goals per game. This means that a forecast for over-goals should be obligatory in the Bochum vs. Dortmund match as well. Donyell Malen, in particular, has played his part in this. The Dutchman has already been labeled as a bad buy, but has always scored in the last five Bundesliga games.

Dortmund’s attack also impressed last weekend in the home match against Frankfurt. Immediately with 4:0 the Eintracht was shot out of the stadium. Donyell Malen was even successful twice. Jude Bellingham was also among the scorers and Mats Hummels has managed to become the seventh player to always score in the top flight for 15 seasons in a row. Without question, the 2014 World Cup winner has left his mark on German soccer.

However, there is also this one aspect that may argue against BVB scoring three times on Friday to start matchday 30. In the last five away games, including the Champions League and DFB Cup, the Black and Yellows have not managed a win. With the big goal in mind, however, we trust Borussia to end this negative streak as well and win in Bochum.

Last matches of Dortmund:

Bundesliga

• 22/04/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
• 15/04/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
• 08/04/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Union Berlin

DFB Cup

• 06/04/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga

• 01/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Bochum – Dortmund Direct comparison / H2H balance

It’s a derby of short distances. Many BVB fans will take the 20 kilometers or so to Castroper Straße to support their team on site. This has already worked once this season, when Borussia visited Bochum in the DFB Cup and won 2-1. In addition, there was the clear 3:0 home victory of the Black-Yellows in the Bundesliga.

In total, the two clubs have faced each other in 84 matches to date. The direct comparison speaks for Dortmund with 37:22 derby victories. Especially in recent years, BVB has worked on this record. VfL has only managed one win in its last ten competitive matches against Borussia. At home, Bochum have been waiting four games for a win against their neighbors.

Bochum – Dortmund tip

VfL Bochum needs every point in the relegation battle, but there aren’t many aspects that suggest the Revierklub will reap anything in Friday’s derby. Thomas Letsch’s team has won just one of its last five home games and has been waiting for a success at Castroper Straße against BVB since 2007. In addition, the league leader is the best Bundesliga team of the current calendar year.

The guests from Dortmund are the team with the most goals in the Bundesliga this year. 41 goals in 14 games suggest that Edin Terzic has changed the general direction of his team. Donyell Malen, in particular, has benefited from this in recent weeks and has scored consistently in the last five games.

The only problem in the overall assessment of this match is that Borussia has not won in the last five away games. However, after capturing the lead in the standings last weekend, this fact should give another boost. That’s why we even decided to play the betting odds on a handicap win (-1.5) for the guests between Bochum and Dortmund.