Will Benfica live up to their role as favorites?
The long wait for European soccer fans finally comes to an end this week. The European Cup is back! After kicking off in the top flight, the Europa and Conference Leagues continue – as usual on Thursdays. A clash in the Europa League, in which the leading bookies have clearly decided who they think will prevail in the play-offs, will take place in Portugal’s capital
Portuguese record champions Benfica take on the French underdogs from Toulouse. Unsurprisingly, the odds for a Benfica Lisbon vs Toulouse bet clearly point towards a home win in the first leg. The bookies have an even clearer view of who will prevail after the first and second legs. Anything other than the Portuguese advancing would certainly be a surprise
Nevertheless, caution is advised for Roger Schmidt’s team. After all, the French side only lost one match in the entire preliminary round on the European stage and left the Belgians from Saint-Gilloise and the Austrian representative LASK behind them in the group.
Will another prediction on Benfica Lisbon v Toulouse pay off if the French side survive another game without defeat? At least the odds for a Portuguese victory seem too clear at first glance
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Four long years of waiting finally came to an end last year. After 2019, the record champions were finally able to take the crown in Portuguese soccer again. When German coach Roger Schmidt took over, Benfica’s success returned. The reward for this success was participation in the Champions League this season.
However, the return to the European premier class was sobering for Schmidt’s team. Benfica lost their first four games in this competition without any real success. It was only on the last two match days that the Portuguese side pulled themselves together and secured a draw at home to Inter Milan and an away win in Salzburg to secure a place in the Europa League that they no longer thought possible.
The Champions League relegation now continues one level lower. The Benfica Lisbon v Toulouse odds show a clear favorite role for the Portuguese in the first leg against the twelfth-placed team from France – including in the Bet365 app. In the event of a win, the British bookmaker has also stopped charging betting tax since this year
How much trouble will Benfica have against Toulouse?
One reason why Benfica are more than clear favorites is certainly the fact that they have never lost a home game in European competition against a French team (11-5-0). And this time too, the prediction for Benfica Lisbon against Toulouse is that the Portuguese record champions will not lose the upcoming match. What’s more, Schmidt’s side go into the play-offs with a broad chest after a long unbeaten run in the domestic league.
In the domestic Primeira Liga, Benfica have yet to lose at home this season (8-2-0). The Eagles’ showpiece is their own defense, which has only conceded four goals in the Portuguese top flight. Another clean sheet against the French side’s weak offense does not seem out of the question.
In general, the Estádio da Luz has rarely seen spectacles or overly high-scoring victories. With neither side expected to take too many risks in the first leg, the tip for Benfica Lisbon against Toulouse is for a rather low-scoring encounter.
Predicted Benfica Lisbon line-up:
Toulouse – Statistics & current form
Just two years ago, Toulouse FC were playing in the lower reaches of France’s Ligue 2. As thirteenth in the table in the previous season, Toulouse would also have had nothing to do with this year’s Europa League season. However, the team from the south of France sensationally won the French Cup and can therefore represent their colors in Europe
Can Toulouse spring the next surprise?
And this is where Carles Martinez’s team left their mark in the Europa League group stage. The South French side were particularly impressive at home, remaining unbeaten in all three of their Europa League preliminary round matches. They also only suffered one defeat away from home at heavy favorites Liverpool, drew in Belgium at Saint-Gilloise and even won in Linz. Nevertheless, the bookies don’t have much faith in the French cup winners in their Benfica Lisbon v Toulouse odds.
However, with a bit of luck and strong form on the day, Toulouse could even manage a surprise in the form of a draw. Nevertheless, Benfica are not the heavy favorites in this match for nothing. However, a heavy defeat is definitely not to be expected. The match is comparable to the French Super Cup final against Paris Saint-Germain last month, which Toulouse also approached rather defensively as the underdogs. In the end, the southern French side were beaten 2-0 by the heavy favorites from the capital.
We also expect Carles Martines’ team to adopt a more defensive approach at Benfica. Coach Martinez will probably try to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible in order to create a good starting position for the second leg. However, it is doubtful whether the Benfica Lisbon v Toulouse prediction that the Portuguese champions will go scoreless will come true. Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in just one of their 14 European away games to date.
Up front, shooting star Dallinga, who was involved in five of the French side’s eight goals in the preliminary round, will be the key. He was particularly dangerous away from home and could now even break Olivier Giroud’s record – the only player so far to score in four consecutive games in the same European competition.
Predicted Toulouse line-up:
Benfica Lisbon – Toulouse head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Both teams face each other for the first time in a competitive match
Benfica Lisbon – Toulouse betting tip
Benfica Lisbon have remained unbeaten in all 26 home games in the Europa League since the 2009/10 season (20-6-0), making them by far the best home team in this competition during this period. Toulouse, on the other hand, surprised everyone by making the Europa League playoffs – but a Benfica Lisbon vs Toulouse bet on a French win would still be risky in many respects.
At the Estadio da Luz, the young team from the south of France is likely to reach its limits. The Portuguese champions are usually very strong at home and are also much stronger in terms of individual class. Toulouse are likely to try to get a good result through team unity and a strong defense
On a good day, the French could even surprise Benfica. Benfica have yet to win a home game at European level this season and Toulouse have recently impressed at national level with two away victories. In general, the southern French side are stronger away from home in Ligue 1 than in their mostly weak performances at home.
Rather than a direct bet on a home win with low odds, a bet on the double chance of less than four goals in the course of the match seems safer for Benfica Lisbon against Toulouse. After all, neither team will be taking any risks in the first leg.
And even if the national league is only comparable to a knockout game in a European competition to a limited extent – in nine of Toulouse’s ten away games in the domestic league this season, fewer than four goals were scored, while this was also the case for Benfica in eight of ten home games at national level. In the top flight, Benfica only scored a lot of goals in the last two games, when the Portuguese record champions had to risk everything.
Prior to that, Roger Schmidt’s team only scored once in four games. Toulouse even managed just 20 goals in 21 games at national level.
