Lewy’s hot return to Munich
The draw for the Champions League group stage has produced super exciting constellations. There are two explosive reunions on the second matchday of the preliminary round, which comprises just six matches and will be played in two months. On Tuesday, Robert Lewandowski returns to FC Bayern in the new jersey of FC Barcelona. One day later, Erling Haaland and Manchester City will face Dortmund at home.
While the reigning vice-champion is considered a clear underdog by the Citizens, the starting position for the Munich team is completely different. Currently, even lower odds are offered on a home win in the top match between Bayern and Barcelona. Despite the three draws in a row in the Bundesliga, the Nagelsmann team is favoured against the in-form Catalans.
History may also play a part in the bookmakers’ assessment. On the one hand, the German record champions have won eight of their eleven encounters in the top flight against the Blaugrana. On the other hand, the last four encounters in the group phase were all won by the Bundesliga team. In view of recent impressions, however, it takes a bit of risk-taking to predict a three-goal win for the home side between Bayern and Barcelona.
Bayern – statistics & current form
While we wrote somewhat sarcastically about a first impending crisis at FC Bayern in the previous week, the feeling that the Munich side are sliding more and more into a downward spiral seems to be growing. At national level, coach Julian Nagelsmann’s team recently had to settle for three points in a row. For the first time ever in the Bundesliga, the record champions have played to three draws in a row.
At least they made a good start in the CL group phase the previous week. Thanks to a well-deserved away win at Inter Milan, the record champions put an exclamation mark on their group rivals and at the same time took the first important step towards the last 16. On Tuesday evening, they will now take over the top spot in Group C. The prerequisite for this is that they will be able to win in the second round. The prerequisite for this is that a bet on a home win in the Bayern vs. Barcelona clash pays off.
Bayern are a home power in the top division
Statistically, there is much to suggest that the “Bestia Negra” will also leave the pitch at home in the Allianz Arena as winners, after all, 35 of the last 37 (!) home matches in the top flight were won in the course of the group phase. Since October 2017, the FCB has not lost a group match in front of its own fans. That should remain the case on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, in view of recent performances, it is not our first approach to play the odds on the success of Müller, Neuer, Kimmich and Co. between Bayern and Barcelona, among other things because at 1.80 they may even be slightly lower than expected. Value is therefore not necessarily to be seen.
Are we going to see a goal spectacle?
The situation is different with a potential bet that we will see a lot of goals. Compared to the Bundesliga, where the opposing teams primarily annoy the southern Germans by working against the ball and with a compact approach, the guests from Catalonia will play their usual possession football and thus repeatedly give away spaces for the transition game. All in all, four or more goals in the course of the game are a realistic number.
Kingsley Coman, a key player on the wing, will be missing with a torn muscle fibre. Nevertheless, there is no shortage of (offensive) options, so that players such as Goretzka, Gravenberch or Gnabry will probably be on the bench again. The recently somewhat grumpy Nagelsmann will not be without Leroy Sané, who has been involved in 13 goals (seven goals, six assists) in his last ten CL appearances. In addition, the FCB has a real Barcelona expert in Thomas Müller in the line-up. No other player has scored more goals against the Spaniards in Europe than the international. In seven attempts, he has already scored eight goals of his own.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Neuer – Pavard, de Ligt, Hernandez, Davies – Kimmich, Sabitzer – L. Sané, Musiala – T. Müller, Mané
Last matches played by Bayern:
Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 2 VfB Stuttgart
Champions League Grp. C
08/09/2022 – Inter Milan 0 – 2 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – Union Berlin 1 – 1 Bayern Munich
DFB Cup
01/09/2022 – Viktoria Köln 0 – 5 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
27/08/2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Gladbach
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
From more than one point of view, FC Barcelona’s away match at Munich’s Allianz Arena has an important meaning. After the good start of the season of the Catalans, the guest game at the title contender in the top division is the first real gauge in this still young season. Has coach Xavi really managed to lead the blue and reds back to the European top within a very short time or is FC Bayern still too high a hurdle for the new Barca team?
We will get an answer to this question on Tuesday evening, when the main focus will naturally be on Robert Lewandowski. The long-time life insurance of the German record champions and multiple top scorer returns to his old place of work and with another record behind him.
Will Lewandowski score?
Because the Polish super striker scored three times in the previous week’s 5-1 home win over Viktoria Plzen, he is now the first player to score at least three goals in a game for three different clubs (BVB, Bayern, Barcelona) in the Champions League.
In 37 Champions League games Lewy played at the Allianz Arena, he scored 38 goals. So he will be happy to enter the dressing room in the Munich football temple, albeit the visitors’ dressing room this time.
As already indicated, the Blaugrana’s current form is absolutely respectable. After a sobering 0-0 draw against Rayo Vallecano at the start of the season, the Blaugrana have now won five games in a row. Only once did the Xavi team fail to score four goals of its own. Nevertheless, there have been four matches with more than 3.5 goals, which is why we can well imagine predicting at least four goals in the course of the match between Bayern and Barcelona.
In terms of personnel, Xavi cannot complain at the moment. All key players and potential regulars are available. At the weekend, the ex-professional was even able to spare some players on the bench of the world club. Lewandowski, Dembelé and Pedri only came into the game after just under an hour. Marcos Alonso only played a little more than ten minutes in the 4-0 away win in Cadiz, Koundé was even left out completely. We therefore expect a rested and motivated visiting team.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
ter Stegen – Bellerin, Koundé, Garcia, Marcos Alonso – S. Busquets – Gavi, Pedri – Raphinha, Lewandowski, Dembelé
Last matches played by Barcelona:
La Liga
10/09/2022 – Cadiz 0 – 4 FC Barcelona
Champions League Grp. C
08/09/2022 – FC Barcelona 5 – 1 Viktoria Pilsen
La Liga
04/09/2022 – FC Sevilla 0 – 3 FC Barcelona
29/08/2022 – FC Barcelona 4 – 0 Real Valladolid
Club friendlies
25/08/2022 – FC Barcelona 3 – 3 Manchester City
Bayern – Barcelona Direct comparison / H2H balance
We already mentioned in the introduction that Bayern love to take to the pitch against Barcelona in the top flight. Eight victories in eleven attempts underline this thesis, as do the four successes of the Bundesliga club in a CL group stage.
Last season, too, the former title holders found themselves in the same group. The first and second legs also went to the Munich side, but they benefited from the fact that the Catalans were struggling with themselves and were nowhere near as strong as they are at the moment. All historical results should therefore – as is often the case – be taken with a grain of salt.
Bayern – Barcelona Tip
The encounter between Bayern and Barcelona is of course already writing plenty of great and exciting stories before kick-off. Among other things, there is the question of whether Robert Lewandowski will become only the fourth player to score for and against the German record champions in the Champions League. This would put him in an extremely elite circle consisting of Lukas Podolski, Roy Makaay and Giovane Elber.
In fact, we can well imagine the Pole scoring. In the Bayern vs. Barcelona clash, the betting odds on a Lewy goal are therefore just as involved in our top tips as the generalised bet that at least four goals will be scored in the course of the match.
This is due on the one hand to the outstanding offences of both teams and on the other hand to the certainly courageous approach of the coaches, who want to take total control or dominance. We can therefore expect an open exchange of blows that will certainly not end 0:0.
Our second and preferred idea is therefore to bet on over 3.5 goals in the top match of matchday 2 in the top flight between Bayern and Barcelona
