Will Bayern also dash their CL ambitions?

At FC Bayern, the assessment of this season depends exclusively on their performance in the Champions League. While the Munich side had to congratulate Bayer Leverkusen on winning the Bundesliga title via social media on Sunday more than a month before the end of the season and will presumably also send their congratulations to the Rhineland after the DFB Cup final, only a possible triumph in the Champions League can bring the miserable 2023/24 season to a positive, conciliatory end.

Before coach Thomas Tuchel’s side can face a potential semi-final against Manchester City/Real Madrid or dream of the venerable final venue at Wembley, however, they must first get a London team out of the way on Wednesday evening. After the 2-2 draw in the first leg a week ago, the German record champions are favorites to progress due to their home advantage. Between Bayern and Arsenal, the bet on a home win after regular time is a 2.40; for the semi-final against the hosts, a 1.75 is offered at the top of the odds.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Only very few experts had expected FC Bayern to put in such a good performance in London the previous week. After a series of disappointing performances in the Bundesliga, including defeats against Werder Bremen, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Heidenheim, Munich were considered the clear underdogs in the English capital. However, led by the strong Leroy Sané, the German record champions put in one of their strongest performances of the season and therefore deserved the 2-2 draw, which significantly improved their starting position ahead of the second leg at home.

This is also supported by various statistics, as in 17 out of 18 cases in which FCB were able to record at least a draw in the first leg of the Champions League knockout phase, they went through to the next round. However, they will need another cream-of-the-crop day on Wednesday evening to secure their 13th appearance in the semi-finals of the top flight. However, the Bayern vs Arsenal odds underline just how complicated the task against the top team from the Premier League will be. If you adjust for the home advantage, we can expect a 50/50 match in which anything can happen

How does Tuchel solve Bayern’s problem at left back?

Although coach Thomas Tuchel’s side impressively managed to show a different face in the Champions League than in the Bundesliga at home against Lazio Roma and last Tuesday at the Emirates, the record champions, who have been very inconsistent and underperformed throughout the season, could now reach their limits.

In terms of tactics, this theory is supported by the fact that Bayern have always had problems recently when they have come up against solid and well-defending defenses. On the one hand, because they could really only rely on the creativity of Jamal Musiala and the strong finishing of Harry Kane up front. On the other hand, because the rest of the defense showed great deficits. In view of the fact that FCB expect to be dominant in their own stadium, there could once again be scope for the Gunners’ good transitional play. This is one of the reasons why we are also checking the odds for at least three goals in the match between Bayern and Arsenal.

Finally, the tense personnel situation must be addressed. Although Manuel Neuer and Leroy Sané have reported fit in time, coach Tuchel will have to make changes on the left flank in particular. Gnabry was injured in the first leg and Davies will miss Wednesday’s game through suspension. Mazraoui will therefore become a temporary left-back and will have to deal with Bukayo Saka in most cases.

Advantage: Arsenal! Because a clean sheet is therefore rather unlikely, even more pressure is on the shoulders of Harry Kane, who can certainly be described as a Gunners expert thanks to 15 goals in 20 competitive games against the upcoming opponents. Quotes for the attacker to score can also be placed at Intertops.

Predicted Bayern line-up:

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

Arsenal Football Club have had two disappointing matches. While the Londoners certainly expected more than a draw in the home game against Bayern, Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa hurt even more. Especially in view of the fact that the Gunners would have regained the lead in the table and thus pole position in the race for the English championship if they had won at home against Emery’s team. However, it is now time to shake the disappointment out of their clothes and focus on the top flight.

Statistically speaking, however, away games in Germany have not been a good place for the capital city club in the past. On the one hand, the Red & Whites won just one of six away CL matches at FC Bayern. On the other hand, they also suffered defeats on their three most recent trips to Germany. However, credit must be given to the supposed underdogs in that Spanish coach Mikel Arteta has taken the Red & Whites to a new level and, as one of the best Premier League teams, is also aiming for overall triumph in the Champions League.

Arsenal hoping for a reaction in the CL

Arsenal’s hopes of a positive result are based primarily on the fact that they still have a very good record in 2024. Before the aforementioned defeat to Aston Villa, the Londoners had not lost in eleven consecutive PL matches and recorded 31 out of a possible 33 points. Strictly speaking, Arteta’s side even dominated the English top flight. 38 goals scored and only three goals conceded during this period are impressive proof of this

Apart from that, there is no denying that Munich performed at the limit in the previous week, while the Gunners remained relatively far below it. If these performances now converge, we see slight advantages for the visitors from the island, who have more self-confidence, a different self-image and probably a little more individual quality at the moment. As the odds also point to a home win, there is definitely more value to be found in betting on the reigning runners-up. Our approach is therefore to predict Bayern v Arsenal for the North Londoners to progress.

However, it should be noted that the English championship contenders also have a few question marks to clear up in terms of personnel. Ödegaard had to be substituted at the weekend due to injury. Saka also limped off the pitch. The appearances of these two key players are questionable, although we assume that Arteta will be able to draw as much as possible from the full squad on Wednesday evening. This also means that difference player Saka will play on the right side of the attack. The international has already been involved in eight goals in the current CL season, following in the footsteps of Thierry Henry, who once reached double figures for the Gunners in the top flight.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:

Bayern – Arsenal Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

To date, 13 meetings between these clubs on the international stage are in the books. With seven wins, three draws and just three defeats, the pendulum is clearly swinging in Munich’s favor, who have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings by 5:1. Such a clear-cut result can be virtually ruled out on Wednesday evening. However, we do not consider a certain number of goals to be unrealistic. Three goals in regulation time are definitely possible. As a reminder: last week, three goals were scored in the first 45 minutes alone. In the end it was 2-2, with Gnabry and Kane scoring for Bayern and Saka and Trossard for Arsenal

Bayern – Arsenal tip

Rarely have we had such exciting CL quarter-finals in recent years. None of the four matches have been decided after the first legs. Wednesday evening at the Allianz Arena should be particularly exciting. After the 2-2 draw in the first leg, Bayern are slightly favored against Arsenal in the second leg according to the betting odds. However, we do not fully share this assessment, especially as Munich are having a disappointing season, have had to cope with many setbacks and will once again be without many players in this important knockout clash.

But perhaps it will help FCB fans to know that Dutch referee Danny Makkelie has been appointed. The referee, once described by Matthias Sammer as a “very, very arrogant person”, has refereed Munich four times in the Champions League so far. The German record champions have always left the pitch victorious. We do not believe that this streak will be broken during the week. Bayern have been too inconsistent this season. They have not been resilient enough against well-organized and counter-attacking opponents.

We are therefore of the opinion that Bayern and Arsenal offer far better value in the betting on the English side progressing. At Happybet, a proud 2.10 can be played on it, regardless of whether the semi-final is reached after 90 minutes, extra time or a penalty shoot-out. We choose six units as the stake to underline our considerations, which are primarily based on the “mismatch” Saka vs. Mazraoui and the general approach of a tactical nature as the most important basis for argumentation