Will the CL winner come from Germany?

One week before the big men’s Champions League final in Istanbul between Manchester City and Inter Milan, the eyes of many football fans turn to Eindhoven on Saturday afternoon. In the Philips Stadium, which is sold out to the last seat, FC Barcelona and VfL Wolfsburg will duel it out for Europe’s crown in the women’s competition.

In front of more than 34,000 spectators, the Bundesliga team from the Autostadt will be aiming to bring the title back to Germany for the first time since 2015. However, after their triumph in the DFB Cup, the Wölfin now face what is probably their most difficult task of all. The fact alone that the odds on the Barcelona and Wolfsburg women to win last year’s final are so low underlines the clear role of favourites for the women from Catalonia.

Although Lena Oberdorf, Alexandra Popp, Svenja Huth and Co. definitely do not need to hide in the home ground of PSV from Eindhoven, the advantages in terms of individual quality as well as the inhumanly good statistics speak a relatively clear language in favour of the “Azulgranas”, who, by the way, are in the final for the third time in a row.

However, the topic of experience should not be overstated with regard to a suitable Barcelona vs. Wolfsburg women’s forecast, as the VfL women have also reached the final in five of the last ten years. In 2018 and 2020, some of the current top performers were also involved when the Green-Whites lost out in each case.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

FC Barcelona have become one of Europe’s top names in women’s football in recent years. Considering that Barça Femení has only existed as an independent department within the club since 2002, it is all the more impressive what magnificent successes against the “Azulgranas” have already been able to record on their letterhead.

Since 2012, the Barca women have won the Spanish championship eight times, the cup nine times and the Champions League for the first time in 2021. In general, the club has once again developed for the better in the recent past. The upcoming final will be the third consecutive final in the top flight for the Catalans. In 2021, Chelsea were beaten 4-0, and in the previous season they lost 3-1 to Lyon. Now they want to win a second trophy.

Barca are currently the measure of all things in women’s football

Coach Jonathan Giráldez’s team is explicitly building on the unwavering dominance they exude at both national and international level. With a style of play very similar to “Tiki-Taka”, the Barca women have celebrated 28 victories in 30 games in Spain this season. Their only defeat, against Madrid a fortnight ago, was also their first league defeat after two previous unbeaten years. Before the aforementioned draw at the beginning of the month, the “Azulgranas” had even won 62 league games in a row!

The Spaniards, who have even reached the title game for the fourth time in the past five years, were also the measure of all things in the Champions League in 2022/23. They won eight of their ten matches. However, their only defeat in the group stage came against a German team, FC Bayern (1:3). However, 37 goals scored and six out of eight victories with at least a two-goal difference underline the outstanding qualities of the title favourites.

We therefore believe that the 2021 title winners will be able to lift the trophy again two years later. This is also supported by the return of world footballer Alexia Putellas, who has since celebrated her comeback after tearing her cruciate ligament and naturally gives the team a completely different quality. On the other hand, two important players, Lucy Bronze and ex-Wolfsburg player Fridolina Rolfö, are in danger of being absent.

Predicted line-up of Barcelona:
Paños; Bronze/Torrejón, Paredes, León, Rolfö; Walsh, Bonmatí, Putellas; Graham Hansen, Geyse, Paralluelo

Wolfsburg Ladies – Statistics & current form

2014/2015 was the last time a German team won the Champions League. In Berlin, the 1st FFC Frankfurt beat the women of Paris St. Germain. The year before, by the way, VfL Wolfsburg had been allowed to put on the crown in this competition. Since then, the Wolfsburg women have reached the final three times, but lost three times. Once after a penalty shoot-out, once after extra time and the last final after regular playing time.

If we take a look at the Barcelona vs. Wolfsburg women’s odds before the fifth VfL final in the past ten years, it quickly becomes clear that the green-whites are once again being treated as underdogs. The Bet365 app, for example, offers odds of 4.33 should the trophy once again go to the Federal Republic of Germany on Saturday afternoon.

Wolfsburg’s strength is their offence

For the German runners-up and cup winners, their journey in this year’s Champions League season almost ended in the semi-finals. Against Arsenal, the team of Dutch coach Tommy Stroot had to chase a deficit in the second leg, which would have sealed their elimination. In the end, however, both matches ended in a 2:2 draw, so that a goal in extra time was enough to reach the final.

In any case, it is striking that the Wolfsburg women have a very strong offensive. Ewa Pajor, Svenja Huth and Alexandra Popp are all experienced players who have enormous individual quality and are always good for goals.

Over-matches have therefore been the order of the day so far this season, which is why it is definitely worth considering a prediction of three or more goals in the match between Barcelona and the Wolfsburg women at the weekend. It is also worth mentioning in this context that in the last four finals in the women’s premier league, there have always been at least four goals scored.

Predicted Wolfsburg Women’s line-up:
Frohms; Wilms, Hendrich, Janssen, Rauch; Oberdorf, Lattwein; Huth, Roord, Popp; Pajor

Barcelona – Wolfsburg Women Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The clubs have faced each other a total of five times in the Women’s Champions League. Surprisingly, the women lead the direct comparison with four victories. Last season, the clubs met in the semi-finals. Barca won the first leg clearly with 5:1 and could therefore easily afford the 0:2 defeat in the second leg. Their place in the final was nevertheless perfect.

Barcelona – Wolfsburg Ladies Tip

From a German perspective, we are of course looking forward to the Women’s Champions League Final on Saturday afternoon. Well over 30,000 spectators will provide the right setting for a very interesting match in Eindhoven. After winning the title in 2021 and losing the final in 2022, FC Barcelona will be looking to live up to their own role as favourites.

Since the three-way market between Barcelona and Wolfsburg only offers betting odds of just over 1.40 on a home win, it seems clear that it would be a big surprise if, contrary to expectations, VfL were to win the trophy. Over the entire course of the competition, however, the “Azulgranas” left the clearly more stable and better impression.

In view of the fact that Alexia Putellas, considered by many experts to be the best female footballer in the world, is now well on her way to regaining her old form after tearing her cruciate ligament, the Catalans are even more likely to win. All in all, we therefore tend to bet on the 2021 title holders winning this final with at least a two-goal lead in the clash between Barcelona and Wolfsburg.