Will the Colchoneros end Milan’s international season prematurely?
Group B of this year’s premier league has been dubbed the “group of death”. The Klopp disciples had no problems at all, who are already fixed in the round of 16 with the maximum points. The three remaining teams are still fighting for an international berth. At the Wanda Metropolitano stadium, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan will face each other on Wednesday.
As things stand, the Spanish champions from Madrid would have to be content with the Europa League, while for the Italian visitors the European adventure would end completely. For Ibrahimovic & Co, the game in Madrid is the last chance. A win is a must. Odds of over 5.50 are currently being offered for a three-goal win for Atletico Madrid vs. AC Milan.
Realistically, Milan’s chances are probably only theoretical and the focus is on the domestic championship. Therefore, the clear favourite role in favour of the home side is understandable.
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
The lucky win in the first leg actually put the Simeone eleven in a good starting position in the fight for the last 16 of the Champions League. However, the two defeats against Liverpool saw Atletico Madrid fall behind and they are now one point behind FC Porto. A decision in favour of the Rojiblancos is not yet possible given the final head-to-head clash with Porto on Wednesday, but the Spaniards could put themselves in a good/better position (depending on the outcome of the parallel match) with a win at home.
Italian teams are welcome
According to statistics, the chances of getting that all-important home win are very good for the Colchoneros from the Spanish capital. The last time Atletico Madrid lost an international home match against a Serie A team was back in the 20th century. Since a 3-1 defeat in the UEFA Cup against AC Parma, the Spaniards have remained unbeaten in seven home games (six wins, one draw). The goal difference of 16:3 also speaks volumes.
Speaking of goals conceded, the team under Diego Simeone is the record holder. Atletico Madrid have now played 40 CL home games under the Argentine and have conceded just 19 goals. An average of 0.48 goals conceded per home game is the lowest ever in the top flight by a coach with at least 20 CL games under his belt. However, the strong defence suffered a bit this year, as the champions get surprisingly “many” goals conceded.
In the league, Jan Oblak has had to make the same number of saves in 13 games, but this figure is much worse than last year, when the Rojiblancos conceded only five goals in 13 games. With 62 per cent “over 2.5 games” in the league, Atletico are on the verge of losing their reputation as a “sub-par team”.
In terms of personnel, Joao Felix, Thomas Lemar and Marcos Llorente will still not be available. Antoine Griezmann will return. The Frenchman scored in the last two CL matches and could score in three Champions League matches in a row for the first time in his career on Wednesday. Odds of 2.75 are on offer for Atletico Madrid against AC Milan.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak – Gimenez, Hermoso, Savic – Carrasco, de Paul, Koke, Trippier – Correa, Griezmann – Suarez
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
11/07 2021 – Valencia 3 – 3 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Grp. B
11/03 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
LaLiga
10/31 2021 – Atletico Madrid 3 – 0 Real Betis
10/28 2021 – Levante 2 – 2 Atletico Madrid
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
The return to the UEFA Champions League has been eagerly anticipated, but so far the top flight has been absolutely disappointing for Stefano Pioli’s side. Theoretically, the Rossoneri still have the chance to reach the last 16, but this is by no means realistic. Only with two victories and a lot of support is this still possible.
Spanish teams don’t suit Milan
Far more likely, the international season will be over early on Wednesday night. With a defeat at the Wanda Metropolitano stadium, the great AC Milan no longer even have a chance of finishing third and the associated relegation to the Europa League.
Victories against teams from the Spanish LaLiga are an absolute rarity for the Rossoneri. Indeed, a look at the past shows that Milan have won only one of their last 16 games against Spanish teams in the top flight (six draws, nine defeats). In addition, Milan conceded five defeats in the last six of these matches.
Another CL match without a win would be tantamount to equalling the negative record set in 2009/10, when Milan also went five consecutive games without an international victory. Given the dismal starting position in the top flight and the good situation in the league, it would not be surprising if the focus is already clearly on the domestic championship. The Rossoneri are not expected to be at their best in Spain on Wednesday evening. This is certainly another argument in favour of betting on the home win in Atletico Madrid vs AC Milan.
Away there are many goals
The dress rehearsal for the Madrid clash was disappointing as Milan conceded their first defeat of the season against Fiorentina in Tuscany. The fans were treated to some spectacle in the 4-3 defeat. Once again, it was confirmed that Milan’s away games are far more goal-filled than their home games. On average, 3.85 goals per game were scored in seven home games in the league. In addition, six times the bet on the “Both to Score” was crowned with success.
Predicted line-up of AC Milan:
Tatarusanu – Theo Hernandez, Romagnoli, Kjaer, Kalulu – Kessie, Tonali – Leao, Diaz, Saelemakers – Ibrahimovic
Last matches played by AC Milan:
Serie A
11/20 2021 – AC Florence 4 – 3 AC Milan
11/07 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Champions League Grp. B
11/03 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 1 FC Porto
Serie A
10/31 2021 – AS Roma 1 – 2 AC Milan
10/26 2021 – AC Milan 1 – 0 Torino
Atletico Madrid – AC Milan Direct comparison / H2H record
So far, the Colchoneros from Madrid have a 100 percent winning record against the Rossoneri from the fashionable city of Milan. In the 2013/14 season, Atletico Madrid prevailed 1-0 and 4-1, and in the first leg of the current group stage, a controversial penalty deep into injury time provided the decider. Luis Suarez held his nerve in minute 90+7 to make it 2-1.
Atletico Madrid – AC Milan Tip
In essence, this game is a final for both teams. However, it is to be expected that the importance of this game is not identical for both. Certainly, Milan still has a small chance, but the visitors are not to be expected with ultimate consistency. For Atletico Madrid, an early failure would be a bitter disappointment and the Simeone eleven will operate in the best possible line-up, for Milan this is quite questionable.
Other arguments that will probably swing the pendulum towards the home side are the direct comparison, Atletico’s home record against Italian teams and the Rossoneri’s CL record against Spanish teams.
Even more lucrative than betting on a home win in the Atletico Madrid vs. AC Milan clash, however, seems to be the prediction on the over 2.5. The times when a 1:0 was the standard result for the Rojiblancos are now over. The offensive is scoring far more often, which is also necessary because the defence can no longer show this enormous stability. Three goals are therefore quite likely.
