Cup specialist challenges league leaders in the Basque Country
Even before the top European leagues resume their fixtures, there is football at the highest level to watch in Spain. On Wednesday and Thursday, the four quarter-final matches of this year’s Copa del Rey are on the agenda. The last eight are made up exclusively of teams from the highest division, with the absolute showdown taking place in the Basque Country on Thursday. Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid will face each other at the San Mames Stadium.
The home side have been the absolute cup specialists in recent years, but have failed to crown themselves with a trophy in the face of two defeats in the final. There is still a long way to go before the final in 2022, as Spain’s best team at the moment, the Royals, will be visiting the Basque Country. But Marcelino’s team can certainly count on its best players, because Carlo Ancelotti will by no means be able to count on his best line-up
With injuries, but also because of the international matches in South America, Real will have to improvise. Athletic Bilbao, on the other hand, can draw on a full complement of players and, accordingly, only betting odds of just over 3.00 are offered for a home win in the Copa del Rey quarter-final between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid. The match kicks off on Thursday evening at 21:30.
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
83 years in the Spanish LaLiga without interruption, eight championships and no less than 24 cup wins – Athletic Bilbao can definitely be called a traditional club. In any case, tradition is very important to the proud Basques. After all, there are no legionnaires in the squad, because globalisation is not what Athletic Bilbao has in mind. The Basques form their own stars and are absolutely competitive with this philosophy.
Weaker at home than abroad
Surprising this LaLiga season, however, is the fact that head coach Marcelino’s team (formerly of Villarreal and Valencia) have suffered four of their five defeats this season at home in the San Mames Stadium. Athletic Bilbao’s home ground is generally regarded as a fortress, but in 2021/22 they have already lost against promoted Rayo Vallecano, Cadiz, Sevilla and Real Madrid.
The home game against Real Madrid was also the last league home game at the San Mames. In view of the course of the game, the defeat was hard to believe, because Bilbao played the royals up against the wall, but missed countless chances, some of them negligently. Despite the defeat, this performance must be an encouragement for the cup match on Wednesday.
Muniain leads Bilbao to victory against Barcelona
For Bilbao it would be the second successful revenge within a few days. In the round of 16, a rematch of the final from the previous Copa del Rey season was on the agenda. In front of almost 40,000 spectators, the Basques celebrated a 3:2 extra-time victory against the struggling top club. Iker Muniain was the match-winner for the Basques with his two goals.
Bilbao does not have to hide from the big names. The Basques play a very cultivated attacking football and find it much easier against teams that also want to play football. In this respect, a prediction on goals from both teams – as in the league – seems to be a good choice in the cup duel between Athletic Bilbao and Real Madrid.
Marcelino will only have to do without Unai Vencedor and Oihan Sancet – two players who can be replaced without any problems.
Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Agirrezabala – Berchiche, Martinez, Vivian, de Marcos – Muniain, Garcia, Vesga, Nico Williams – Inaki Williams, Sancet
Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:
LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 2 Barcelona
Super Cup
01/16 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
01/13 2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Athletic Bilbao
LaLiga
01/09 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Unusually quiet was the January transfer window for the royals from Madrid. There are no reasons for Carlo Ancelotti’s team to have to readjust again. After all, the team is in first place in the table and has four points more to show than at the same time last season. The royals are still dancing on all three high tides and are therefore absolutely on target.
Successful, but not convincing
But before the international break, the Royals had to shake twice against underdog Elche FC. In the cup round of 16, Real fell behind in extra time and were able to turn the game around when they were shorthanded (Marcelo was sent off for his loose mouth). A few hours later they got their revenge in La Liga. Eder Militao saved Real a very fortunate point in the 92nd minute.
In general, it can be said that Real Madrid has been very successful this season, but the team can only rarely display the great dominance of past days. The individual quality in the squad, however, usually makes the difference. Karim Benzema (17 goals, seven assists) and Vinicius Junior (twelve goals, six assists) in particular are almost impossible for opposing defences to contain.
Race against time for the South Americans
After the results are in, betting on the away win at odds of up to a 2.35 seems interesting for Athletic Bilbao against Real Madrid. However, great caution is advised, as Real Madrid will be fielding an unfamiliar formation on Thursday evening.
Federico Valverde is still on the pitch in Montevideo at 0:00 on 2 February and must then make the 10,000-kilometre return journey. At 1:30 a.m., Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo and Casemiro will play for the Selecao in Belo Horizonte before the return journey (8,000 kilometres). It is unlikely that the quartet will make more than a brief appearance.
In addition, Karim Benzema (training individually), Mariano Diaz, Jesus Vallejo and Ferland Mendy will probably not be available. There is enough quality, but the bench in particular will be thin. Coupled with the recent unconvincing performances, a prediction on the royals seems too risky.
Predicted line-up of Real Madrid:
Lunin – Alaba, Militao, Nacho Fernandez, Vazquez – Ceballos, Modric, Kroos – Hazard, Jovic, Bale
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 2 Elche
Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Elche 1 – 2 Real Madrid
Super Cup
01/16 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid
01/12 2022 – Barcelona 2 – 3 Real Madrid
LaLiga
01/08 2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 Valencia
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
Down-to-earth meets glitz and glamour. The philosophy between the two clubs could not be more different and yet the recent direct games were by no means a clear affair for the team from the Spanish capital. Although the royals prevailed most of the time, the games were always on a knife’s edge. Real Madrid won this season’s Supercoppa final 2-0 and the league by a narrow 2-1 margin, while in La Liga it was Real’s third win en suite with just a one-goal difference.
Athletic Bilbao – Real Madrid Tip
According to the odds offered by the bookmakers, this quarter-final is the most even match. In the other three games, the favourites are more pronounced in each case. In the Basque Country, the hosts can expect a legitimate chance of progressing against the current leaders of the Spanish league. The visitors’ personnel problems in particular mean that betting on the home side in Athletic Bilbao’s match against Real Madrid is recommended.
Against teams with strong play, Bilbao usually always find a solution, as even cultivated football is practised. Options with manageable risk are bets on the Double Chance X2 or the Draw No Bet 1. A little riskier for Athletic Bilbao against Real Madrid is the prediction on the home win. In case of success, however, more than three times the stake is tempting. These chances are definitely given, moderate four units are used as a stake.
