Can the Rossoneri make it exciting again?
In the first leg at San Siro, AC Milan fired a staggering 25 shots without scoring. That happened to the Rossoneri once before in the 2023/24 season, namely in the group stage of the Champions League against Newcastle (0-0). Those two points were also missing in the end, which is why PSG advanced to the knockout round, while “Il Diavolo” were relegated to the Europa League. If the bet on an away win for the Lombards against AC Milan does not work out, Stefano Pioli’s team will also be out of this competition
The fact that there is not much historical evidence to suggest a turnaround quickly becomes clear when you look in the history books to see who AC Milan last lost the first leg at home in a knockout round, only to progress with a corresponding away win. The last time the Rossoneri managed that was against 1. FC Saarbrücken (1954/55). The prediction that AS Roma will stay in the competition against AC Milan is correspondingly risky
However, it is also clear that AS Roma have the worst possible record against AC Milan. They already suffered a 2:1 home defeat in Serie A, which would now go into extra time. The Giallorossi have not won in four home games against the Rossoneri (one draw, three defeats). What’s more, the team is still reeling from the shock of Evan Ndicka’s collapse. The former Frankfurt player was taken to hospital with heart problems, which led to the Romans’ visit to Udinese Calcio being abandoned.
We therefore believe there is a good chance that things will get exciting once again. Especially if Milan can stop wasting chances. We therefore recommend the combined bet on the double chance X2 with over 1.5 goals. However, if you don’t want to rule out a home win, you can also bet on over 2.5 goals at Happybet at odds of 1.85.
AS Roma – Statistics & current form
After winning the 2022 UEFA Conference League and reaching the final of the 2023 Europa League, the 2023/24 season threatened to be a debacle for AS Roma. Those responsible therefore pulled the ripcord and relieved José Mourinho of his duties.
Under Daniele De Rossi, the Giallorossi are suddenly back on track. In the Europa League, “La Lupa” already has one foot in the semi-finals, while in Serie A under the new coach, 26 out of a possible 33 points have been scored – a phenomenal average of 2.36 points per league game
AS Roma recently had problems against AC Milan
However, “La Lupa” are not through yet. After all, their recent home record against the Rossoneri was anything but good. The players from the eternal city have now gone four home games against the Lombards without another win (one draw, three defeats).
The bookmakers’ odds are still against a home win for AS Roma against AC Milan. However, a draw is enough for the Giallorossi to book their place in the semi-finals. The capital side, who have conceded just one goal in their last five competitive matches, are likely to take a defensive approach to the game
How will AS Roma react to the Ndicka problems?
The truth is that the Romans were unable to prevent Milan from taking 25 shots in the first leg. In view of the fact that one goal is enough for the visitors to force extra time alone, Roma still have a very tough task ahead of them.
Despite their strong form, there is also the question of how the team will react to the aforementioned collapse of Evan Ndicka. Interwetten, among others, is offering sports bets that the former Frankfurt player will even score a goal in this second leg (odds: 35.00). However, although the worst fears did not materialize and Ndicka’s heart problems have been ruled out, it would still be surprising if he is back on the pitch at all in this match.
Predicted line-up for AS Roma:
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
AC Milan had moved past Juventus Turin in a commanding fashion as part of a strong run to consolidate second place in the Serie A table. However, with a 14-point deficit to city rivals Inter, the Scudetto had to be written off a few weeks ago.
The last week was all the more disappointing. After making up some ground on the Nerazzurri recently, the Rossoneri now only drew 3-3 at penultimate-placed Sassuolo Calcio at the weekend following their 1-0 home defeat to AS Roma in Serie A.
AC Milan must shake off the first leg
At least: “Il Diavolo” found his scoring touch again on Sunday evening in a 3-3 draw in Emilia-Romagna. Milan fired a staggering 25 shots at home to AS Roma last Thursday without scoring. This had already happened to the Rossoneri on the first matchday of the Champions League group stage against Newcastle United (0:0). Those two dropped points were missing in the end.
But it is also clear that the chances were there. Milan outclassed De Rossi’s side in almost every aspect of their performance, achieving an xG value of 1.61 (Roma: 0.62), but suffered from a lack of goals.
Can AC Milan still progress despite losing the first leg?
The betting odds for AS Roma v AC Milan are now very interesting, with a different outcome in the second leg. Including the recent Sassuolo game, the Lombards have scored at least three goals in four of their last six competitive matches. The Stadio Olimpico could therefore see far more goals than in the first leg.
Whether it will be enough in the end, however, remains to be seen. Despite their good record against the Giallorossi, the Rossoneri’s comeback qualities are not overly pronounced. In the last eight cases in which they have lost the first leg at home in a European competition, “Il Diavolo” have always been eliminated.
Predicted AC Milan line-up:
AS Roma – AC Milan head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 52 – 62 – 84
A total of 198 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with 84 wins, AC Milan clearly lead the direct comparison. In fact, the 1-0 home defeat in the first leg last Thursday was the Rossoneri’s first loss against AS Roma since 2019. Prior to that, “Il Diavolo” remained unbeaten in nine consecutive duels against the Giallorossi (six wins, three draws).
AS Roma – AC Milan betting tip
The betting odds for AS Roma vs AC Milan are also slightly in favor of the visitors, who are unbeaten in four games at the Stadio Olimpico (three wins, one draw). The Rossoneri also had the upper hand in the first leg, but once again wasted chances throughout the season. However, if they manage to score a relatively early goal in the second leg, things could get a lot livelier than in the first leg a week ago
The prediction for the double chance X2 with over 1.5 goals is very interesting for AS Roma against AC Milan, which also includes results such as a 1:1 draw, which the Giallorossi, who are in good form overall, could be expected to achieve.
Betano offers odds of 1.88 for X2 & Ü1.5, which we play with four out of ten units.
