Can the Gunners do their duty?

While the champions have long been decided in the other top five leagues in Europe, the title race in the Premier League will be decided on the final matchday. In the long-distance duel with Manchester City, Arsenal Football Club must hope for a slip-up from their direct rivals and at the same time solve their own compulsory task at home against Everton. Admittedly, the likelihood of the Londoners winning the championship is vanishingly small. This is also underlined by the odds of the best sports betting providers, who are offering an average of 9.00 for the Arteta team to overtake the defending champions and win the PL trophy after all

However, before taking a cautious look at Manchester, full concentration is on the home game against the Toffees, which itself is unlikely to be without complications. The footballers from the city of the Beatles have recently gone five league games in a row without defeat and have nothing to lose. As a result, we expect a carefree performance from coach Sean Dyche’s team, who will, as usual, adopt a defensive approach in order to land a surprise coup in the English capital.

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Arsenal – Statistics & current form

With 86 points after 37 matches played, Arsenal FC are playing a masterful season. Despite 27 wins, five draws and just five defeats, it will probably only be enough to finish runners-up for the second season in a row due to the fact that Manchester City are the only team in the English top flight to have performed even better.

However, the Gunners have not yet completely given up hope of winning their first league title since 2004. After all, it was the capital club itself that was the last team ever to climb from second place in the table to first place on the final matchday and become champions in 1988/89. Back then, however, the Londoners still had everything in their own hands, as the final showdown was a direct duel against their direct rivals from Liverpool. This time, the Gunners can only influence their own match. However, there is much to suggest that the prediction of success for the home side between Arsenal and Everton will come true

Will Arsenal keeper Raya keep a clean sheet again?

For example, the Londoners have always won their match on matchday 38 in the last twelve PL seasons. Their last defeat on the final matchday was in 2004/05; the last home defeat at the end of the season was over 30 years ago. Apart from that, the current form is also good. Five league wins in a row and 15 three-pointers in the last 17 PL matches underline this assessment impressively.

In general, the Gunners have not dropped points against any team from the bottom third of the table throughout the season, so in our eyes it is perfectly understandable that such low odds are being offered on a home win for the runners-up on Sunday between Arsenal and Everton. This is not least due to their good home record, which is reflected in 14 wins, two draws and only two defeats. No other English first division team has conceded fewer goals at home than the Champions League quarter-finalists, who have kept a clean sheet in eight of their last eleven Premier League matches alone.

We take this remarkable defensive strength as an opportunity to combine the expected home win for Arteta’s team with a sub-addition. For an Arsenal triumph including a clean sheet, the Bet365 app offers 2.00 at the top. A Gunners victory with a maximum of four goals in the course of the match brings 1.70 as the maximum odds. In this context, it should be noted that no more than four goals were scored in ten of the capital club’s 14 PL home victories mentioned above. In total, there were even 19 wins this season in which the under 4.5 would have paid off as a healthy foundation for a combined bet.

Predicted Arsenal line-up:

Everton – Statistics & current form

The 2023/24 season has come to a conciliatory end for Everton Football Club. Due to a deduction of eight points for a breach of the profitability and sustainability rules, the Toffees had to worry about staying in the league for longer than they would have liked. In the end, however, the men from the blue part of Liverpool flexed their muscles and distanced themselves from the dangerous zone in the top flight of English soccer with relative ease.

Especially in recent weeks, Dyche’s team has caused a sensation in terms of results. Among other things, the Blues won the city derby against Liverpool FC (2:0) as well as the many must-win games against the basement teams, who are also stuck in the bottom third of the table. A whopping 13 points were gained from the last five league games. Keeper Pickford also kept a clean sheet in all four victories during this period. The Toffees are therefore currently experiencing their best phase of the season and have certainly set their sights high for the final game at the Emirates Stadium

Everton can rely on their strong defense

The task in the capital is made more difficult by the fact that the former national champions have not won any of their last ten PL away games (0-4-6). Furthermore, Calvert Lewin and Co. have never scored more than one goal of their own during this negative run in foreign stadiums. The Blues have even failed to score on five occasions, which in turn can be used as an argument to justify the odds for a commanding home win between Arsenal and Everton on Sunday.

Alternatively, it is also conceivable to target an under bet, as eight of Everton’s last ten matches at league level have seen a maximum of two goals scored. Over the course of the entire season, there were only two games involving Sean Dyche’s side in which five or more goals were scored. No wonder, as the Toffes still have the fourth-best defense in the Premier League with 49 goals conceded, which could well be capable of making life difficult for the Gunners.

With this in mind, it is also worth considering a bet on under 1.5 in the first 45 minutes. The visitors will definitely not abandon their wait-and-see approach in conjunction with a very compact and multi-legged defense, even though nothing is at stake for them.

Predicted Everton line-up:

Arsenal – Everton head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The Gunners had to be patient in the first leg at Goodison Park on September 17, 2023. It took a goal from Leandro Trossard in the 69th minute to give the favorites a 1-0 lead and thus also the final score. 2017/18 was the last time Arsenal managed to beat the Toffees in both legs. However, this long drought could come to an end at the weekend as part of the 38th matchday in the Premier League, as the Londoners have only lost one of their last 27 PL home games against their upcoming opponents and have won 22 of them (22-4-1).

Arsenal – Everton betting tip

Although everything is still mathematically possible in terms of the championship on the final matchday of this Premier League season, you can’t shake off the feeling that the decision has already been made. After the recent performances of both teams, it is hard to imagine Manchester City losing at home to West Ham. However, because soccer is known to write its own laws and surprises can never be ruled out, especially in certain pressure situations, Arsenal FC would be well advised to pick up a much-needed three-pointer in the parallel match.

The Arsenal vs Everton betting odds on the three-way market leave no doubt that the Arteta team will do their homework. And why should they? The capital club have won 15 of their last 17 PL matches, are one of the best home teams in the league with 14 wins in 18 home games and have also won 22 of their last 27 PL home matches against Everton. As Everton have also failed to win any of their last ten visits to the English top flight, we think it is highly unlikely that the visitors from Liverpool will pull off a coup

Despite the relatively clear distribution of roles, we can well imagine that there will be no resounding victory for the hosts. The Toffees are usually too stable. In addition, only two of Dyche’s 37 games have produced more than four goals. With this in mind, we recommend the combined bet on a home win between Arsenal and Everton with a maximum of four goals in the course of the match. The top odds offered at Betano Sportwetten are 1.70. We choose six units as the stake.