Peru will be looking to take points away in Argentina

The wheat is slowly separating from the chaff in South American World Cup qualifying. More and more teams are falling behind decisively and have to bury their dream of participating in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The Peruvian national team also suffered a severe setback a few days ago, so that the gap to the play-off place has already grown to four points.

It would be all the more important for coach Ricardo Gareca’s charges to pull off a surprise coup in a direct encounter against the team from their coach’s home country. Admittedly, the odds are not particularly good for an unexpected three-goal win for the visitors between Argentina and Peru.

The Gauchos, meanwhile, can approach their eleventh qualifier in a much more positive and pressure-free mood. Despite a match against arch-rivals Brazil that still has to be made up, the Albiceleste are already seven points ahead of fifth place. The unbeaten Scaloni eleven has been particularly convincing defensively of late, which is why a first prediction between Argentina and Peru might be that the favourites will win their home match to nil.

Argentina – Statistics & current form

The Argentine national team, which is actually considered a serious contender for the World Cup title every four years due to the enormous quality of its individual players, is currently on a full course towards Qatar 2022. Strictly speaking, there is little doubt that the 1978 and 1986 World Champions will successfully qualify for the finals for the 13th time in a row.

There is still some work to be done, however, because with eight games to go and a current seven-point cushion on fifth place the Albiceleste should not allow themselves a prolonged dry spell. Coach Lionel Scaloni’s team had to experience first-hand what happens when you drop just a few percentage points at this level about a week ago.

Fourth Argentine “to nil” in a row?

In Paraguay, the world number six only managed a 0-0 draw. A few days later, however, Lionel Messi and Co. showed the right reaction and defeated Uruguay 3-0 at home. After ten games, the White Sky Blues are still unbeaten on the road (six wins, four draws) and can also look back on impressive defensive statistics.

The Argentinian backline has only been beaten six times in CONMEBOL qualifying. They have kept their clean sheet in each of their last three competitive matches. In the calendar year 2021, there were seven clean sheets in 13 international matches. Also in seven cases, a bet on Under 2.5 would have gone through. As a result, we are a little surprised that relatively high odds are offered for betting on a maximum of two goals in the match between Argentina and Peru.

In terms of personnel, the coach will not take any risks and will field his supposedly best formation. In attack, the fans at the River Plate stadium can look forward to the prominent trio of Lautaro Martinez, Lionel Messi and Nicolas Gonzalez. The latter was even given preference over Angel di Maria. Meanwhile, there are question marks over the deployment of the injured left-back Acuna and Joaquin Correa

Predicted Argentina line-up:
Martinez; Montiel, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Di Maria, Paredes, De Paul, Gonzalez; Messi, Martinez

Last matches played by Argentina:

Peru – Statistics & Current Form

Peru’s national team has developed rapidly in recent years. While “La Blanquirroja” was one of the weakest teams in the South American zone around a decade ago, the positive trend in the recent past is mainly due to the tenure of Argentine head coach Ricardo Gareca.

He has been in charge of the national team since 2015, leading it to a World Cup finals for the first time in 36 years and ultimately to an outstanding third-place finish at the Copa America 2021. The Peruvian side, which has since climbed to 21st in the world rankings, only lost the semi-finals 1-0 to Brazil in the summer and thus missed out on the big coup.

Peru’s defence has recently improved

In the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Qatar in the winter of 2022, however, the men from the Andes have put themselves in a bad position. Currently seventh in the standings, the “Rojiblancos” are four points off fifth place, which would entitle them to participate in the play-offs. The direct World Cup ticket is already five points away.

The main reason for the disappointing performance is undoubtedly the defensive vulnerability. Although 18 goals conceded in eleven games do not even correspond to an average of two goals conceded per match, this figure is only surpassed in the very low-scoring CONMEBOL qualifiers by bottom-placed Venezuela. Nevertheless, we are far from predicting over 2.5 goals between Argentina and Peru on Thursday night.

In the past five qualifying matches involving Peru, betting on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match would always have been crowned with success. This was also the case in the two most recent matches against Chile (2:0) and in Bolivia (0:1). In Brazil and in the first leg at home against Argentina, the defeats were also absolutely limited (0:2). In both cases, the goals were scored in the first 45 minutes… Coach Gareca will have to do without the injured Tapia, Flores and Guerrero, who did not even travel to the team during the international break in October.

Peru’s probable line-up:
Gallese; Advincula, Abram, Callens, Lopez; Yotun, Aquino, Gonzales; Farfan, Lapadula, Cueva

Last matches played by Peru:

Argentina – Peru Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

The selection teams have faced each other 19 times in World Cup qualifying so far. With ten wins, seven draws and only two defeats, the Argentines lead the direct comparison as expected. As mentioned above, the first leg of the current qualifying campaign ended 2-0 in favour of the Gauchos. In five of the past eight qualifying duels, a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through. So why not on Thursday night too?

Argentina – Peru Tip

Argentina and Peru start the Thursday night clash with different starting positions. While the home side have a very good chance of securing an early World Cup ticket for Qatar 2022, the visitors are already under a certain amount of pressure with a four-point gap to a play-off place.

Although the Rojiblancos are under pressure, we do not expect them to seek their salvation exclusively on the offensive. Unlike in the first leg, where the underdogs were 2-0 up after just under half an hour, it will be more a case of keeping the score as close to zero as possible for as long as possible. But since the Gauchos have not always been convincing offensively in the qualification process so far, no goal fireworks are to be expected.

We therefore choose between Argentina and Peru to bet on a maximum of two goals being scored in the course of the match. In the past five qualifiers with Peruvian participation, such a recommendation would have been correct. Added to this is the fact that the Albiceleste have not conceded a goal in seven of their 13 international matches in the 2021 calendar year.

Consequently, it is also conceivable to play the betting odds on a “nil” victory for the favourites in the Argentina vs Peru clash.