Do the comeback kings repeat their 2018 final appearance?
The 2022 World Cup in Qatar thrives on its diverse sporting stories. One of these very special stories is currently also being written by the Croatian national team.
The 2018 World Cup runners-up won both the last 16 and the quarter-finals on penalties. Both times, Dominik Livakovic was the match-winner with his saves.
Coach Zlatko Dalic’s team will now face the next acid test in the World Cup semi-finals. Prior to the match between Argentina and Croatia, the odds on the South Americans are much lower. Accordingly, Lionel Messi and Co. are seen quite clearly in the role of favourites. However, it has already been proven several times that this “Goliath status” has little meaning in this World Cup final round.
The chequered team will not be without a chance, of course. Especially in view of the fact that four years ago at the World Cup in Russia, the Croats brought the Gauchos to their knees with a 3-0 victory in the preliminary round. Some of the players from back then will be on the pitch again on Tuesday evening and will duel at what they hope will be a good level.
Argentina – Statistics & current form
The Argentinian national team did not make many friends after their quarter-final victory over the Netherlands. With an extremely provocative cheer towards the failing Elftal, the spirited South Americans made a poor winning image and also drew the ire of many other nations as well as their fans.
With their own supporters, however, the Albiceleste continued to score points. After Lionel Messi and Co. started the tournament with an embarrassing 2-1 defeat against Saudi Arabia, coach Scaloni’s team has long since caught up and delivered. With two wins in the group phase, they went into the knockout round in first place, where first Australia and then the Dutch were eliminated. The performances improved from game to game.
This is precisely one of the reasons why the bookmakers are offering lower odds on a success for the reigning Copa America winners ahead of the first World Cup semi-final Argentina vs. Croatia. Another plus point that should not be ignored is the perceived home advantage in Qatar. Numerous Argentine fans will support their team and turn the Lusail Stadium into a real cauldron of witches.
Argentina have never been eliminated in a World Cup semi-final
Purely statistically, there are facts that speak for and against the sky blue and white. On the one hand, it is certainly helpful to know that the Gauchos have never failed in a World Cup semi-final, but have reached the grand final in all five of their previous semi-final matches. All in all, this is the sixth time the Gauchos have reached the final. Only Germany has played for the World Cup trophy more times.
On the other hand, they have a poor record against European nations. Only one of the last seven matches against teams from the UEFA zone was won at the World Cup finals. Three of those encounters were lost and three ended in a draw after 90 minutes, although Argentina won two out of three on penalties.
Lionel Messi in record hunt
Another exciting fact is that the Albiceleste have scored at least once in all five World Cup matches so far and have always scored the 1:0. Because the Croats, on the other hand, have often fallen behind, it is perhaps an attractive option to predict that the South Americans will score the first goal of the match between Argentina and Croatia.
In terms of personnel, however, there are one or two absences to cope with. For example, Scaloni will be forced to bring in a new left-sided player, as Acuna is missing due to a yellow suspension. It is quite possible that Tagliafico will slide into the starting eleven. Supplementary player Montiel also saw his second yellow card against Holland and is not available. The greatest hopes, of course, rest on Lionel Messi, who could equal Lothar Matthäus’ record with his 25th World Cup game. The multiple world footballer only needs one more goal to go down in history as Argentina’s sole record scorer at World Cup finals.
Predicted line-up of Argentina:
E. Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Tagliafico; Fernandez, De Paul, Mac Allister; Di Maria, Messi, Alvarez
Last matches played by Argentina:
World Cup Finals
10/12/2022 – Netherlands (3)2 – 2(4) Argentina
04/12/2022 – Argentina 2 – 1 Australia
WM Group C
01/12/2022 – Poland 0 – 2 Argentina
27/11/2022 – Argentina 2 – 0 Mexico
22/11/2022 – Argentina 1 – 2 Saudi Arabia
Croatia – Statistics & current form
In the introduction we already touched on the Croatian success story. No other team on this planet has such a penchant for comebacks and long matches including penalty shootouts. In the World and European Championships combined, eight of the last nine Croatian knockout matches went to extra time or penalties. In the World Cup finals alone, the chequered team has been involved in four penalty shoot-outs and has won four of them.
In other words, if Argentina want to play the grand final against the winner of the second semi-final Morocco vs. France next Sunday, they will need a win after 90 or 120 minutes at best. Assuming the 2018 runners-up manage to make it to the title game again, they would be only the fourth European nation ever to reach the World Cup final twice in a row. They would also become only the second team, after Germany, to defeat Brazil and Argentina in a World Cup.
The comeback kings from Croatia
But from the point of view of coach Zlatko Dalic’s team, there is still a long way to go. The fact that no road seems too long for the Croatians at the moment is underlined by an impressive statistic. In the last nine World Cup matches, the Vatreni have never taken a 1-0 lead. In the current tournament, the Croats were also behind against Canada, Japan and Brazil, but they always managed to come back. Against Brazil, they even managed to do so in extra time.
These stalwart qualities combined with the incredible passion, the cleverness of some important players and the huge wealth of experience of the key players make the Dalic team an extremely uncomfortable opponent.
Will Modric and Co. rise above themselves again?
Consequently, we would tend to leave the odds on the three-way market aside before the Argentina vs. Croatia clash and focus on the “To-Qualify” in conjunction with an Over/Under bet. For example, for a bet on Argentina progressing and scoring a maximum of three goals in regulation time, Bet365 is offering 1.61 at the top.
While we have always been quite fond of the subject of fitness in Croatia’s past matches, this time we don’t think the advanced age of the players will play a particularly big role. After all, this is a World Cup semi-final. Moreover, the Argentines had a few hours less regeneration time than the Croats. Dalic will probably not make any major changes to his starting eleven. Especially the midfield with Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic is perhaps the best centre this World Cup has to offer.
Predicted line-up of Croatia:
Livakovic; Juranovic, Gvardiol, Lovren, Sosa; Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Perisic
Last matches played by Croatia:
WM Final Round
09/12/2022 – Croatia (4)1 – 1(2) Brazil
05/12/2022 – Japan (1)1 – 1(3) Croatia
World Cup Group F
01/12/2022 – Croatia 0 – 0 Belgium
27/11/2022 – Croatia 4 – 1 Canada
23/11/2022 – Morocco 0 – 0 Croatia
Argentina – Croatia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Five direct duels have taken place between Argentina and Croatia, two of them at World Cups. In 1998, the sky-blue-and-whites prevailed 1-0, while in 2018, the chequered side clearly retained the upper hand with a 3-0 win in the group stage. It was also the last meeting between these teams to date. Of course, such a clear final result is not to be expected on Tuesday evening.
Argentina – Croatia Tip
Four teams are still fighting for the title at the Winter World Cup in Qatar. Bookmakers currently give the French the best chance of repeating their 2018 success. They are closely followed by Argentina, who are seen ahead in their semi-final by the bookmakers. Ahead of the first semi-final Argentina vs Croatia, betting odds on the Gauchos to win are peaking at 1.85.
The passionate performances in the knockout phase, a Messi in strong form and the home advantage with many thousands of fans at the Lusail Stadium are clear arguments in favour of the South Americans, who have also never been eliminated in a World Cup semi-final and could now make it to the final of a World Cup finals for the sixth time in their own association history.
We also see slight advantages for the Albiceleste and could well settle for betting on the Scaloni eleven advancing. It even makes sense to bet on a maximum of three goals in regulation time. In general, we don’t believe in many goals after 90 minutes, which is why we are betting on the under 2.5 between Argentina and Croatia, although the top odds are only 1.62.
It is also conceivable that little will happen in the first half and that the score may even be 0-0 at the break. The Argentinians will probably take the lead then, as the Croats have never scored the first goal of a match in their last nine World Cup matches. But they have come back all the more often! Perhaps this is why extra time and a penalty shoot-out will be needed again on Tuesday evening.
