The second division side are considered favourites
16 first division teams are still represented in the last 32 of the Spanish Copa del Rey. However, a duel between two first division teams will be looked for in vain, as all teams from LaLiga are away from home and are considered favourites, at least on paper. In the duel between Almeria and Elche, however, the home side is seen as having the advantage according to the current odds.
The Andalusians are considered the absolute top favourites in the second Spanish LaLiga and have been able to fulfil this role so far. Despite a game of catch-up, head coach Rubi’s team is in first place and brimming with self-confidence. First division side Elche are one level above them in the relegation zone and are struggling, especially away from home.
Home advantage and form are definitely in favour of the hosts from Almeria. Can the second division side do justice to this role at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterraneos? The match kicks off on Thursday evening at 8 p.m.
Almeria – Statistics & current form
For seven years now, the second division has been the home of UD Almeria. In the meantime, the Andalusians were in a relegation battle, but now the squad is very strong for the second division. This was made possible by a wealthy investor from Saudi Arabia. The big investments are still missing, but the club is still one of the big favourites for promotion.
Squad situation eases
The 2022 calendar year began for head coach Rubi’s side with a 1-0 home defeat to Cartagena. With this, the promotion aspirants lost the aura of invincibility at home, after previously collecting a strong 26 points in ten games. However, the defeat must be put in perspective, as Almeria were also hit by the virus and several important players were unable to play in this match.
At the first public training session on Monday, however, Rubi was able to welcome back five players who are available again after a negative test. Only Chumi and Juanjo Nieto have not yet been released from quarantine. Daniel Carrico, Jose Lazo and Arnau Puigmal will not be available due to injury. The most important absence is that of top striker Umar Sadiq. The club’s top scorer is preparing for the Africa Cup with the Super Eagles. All in all, however, Almeria will experience a quality boost compared to Sunday’s match.
In addition to the return of some key players and the strong home record, the outstanding defence for the Almeria vs Elche game is also an argument for predicting a home win. The home side have conceded just 14 goals in their 21 league games so far.
Predicted line-up of Almeria:
Martinez – Akieme, Martos, Babic, Pozo – Costa, Robertone – Ramazani, Robles, Appiah – Caballero
Last matches played by Almeria:
LaLiga2
01/02 2022 – Almeria 0 – 1 Cartagena
Copa del Rey
12/16 2021 – SD Amorebieta 1 – 2 Almeria
LaLiga2
12/11 2021 – Almeria 3 – 0 Real Zaragoza
12/04 2021 – Fuenlabrada 1 – 1 Almeria
Copa del Rey
11/30 2021 – CDA Aguilas FC (3)1 – 1(5) Almeria
Elche – Statistics & current form
Financial difficulties caused relegation and the revocation of the licence for LaLiga in 2014/15 despite finishing 13th in the table. For a short time, Elche were only in the third division before they managed to recover in the last few years. Elche managed to return to LaLiga in 2019/20 via the play-offs and managed to stay in the league by a razor-thin margin in 17th place. Head coach Fran Escriba’s team is currently one place lower down the table – which would be tantamount to relegation.
Seven of their nine defeats have come away from home
In the first half of the current season, Elche could only celebrate three meagre victories. They only managed one away win, on the fourth matchday at Getafe. This means that Elche have been without an away win in the domestic championship for almost four months.
Overall, Elche can be described as a welcome guest. In seven of the ten away games of the 2021/22 season, Elche returned home without a win. While only two games were lost at home, the first-division team is much weaker away from home. This statistic plays a large part in the fact that betting on the higher-ranked team is considered less likely in the case of Almeria against Elche.
On a positive note, however, the defence must be highlighted, because with “only” 27 goals conceded in 19 league games, Elche have quite a decent record for a relegation candidate. However, this does not help much, as the offensive is mostly lacking. Just 18 goals have been scored in the season so far, which means an average of less than one goal per game. Accordingly, bets on an Under 2.5 are obvious for games involving Elche this season. Due to the good Almeria defence, there are also sufficient arguments for this bet.
Predicted line-up of Elche:
Werner – Mojica, Verdu, Bigas, Barragan – Mascarell, Nwankwo – Fidel, Pastore, Tete Morento – Carrillo
Last matches played by Elche:
LaLiga
01/02 2022 – Elche 0 – 0 Granada
12/18 2021 – Barcelona 3 – 2 Elche
Copa del Rey
12/15 2021 – Unionistas de Salamanca 0 – 1 Elche
LaLiga
12/11 2021 – Valencia 2 – 1 Elche
12/05 2021 – Elche 3 – 1 Cadiz
Almeria – Elche Direct comparison / H2H balance
2013/14 and 2014/15 the two teams were in the top flight at the same time, back then Elche scored in all four games against Almeria (two wins, two draws). The last encounter took place in 2019/20. In Elche’s promotion year, the team from the province of Alicente also remained unbeaten against the Andalusians (win and draw). Nevertheless, in seven of Almeria’s 15 home games against Elche, predicting a home win has been the right call.
Almeria – Elche betting tips
While the two teams are in different leagues, there is no real difference in quality in this cup clash. Although the hosts conceded their first home defeat of the season last weekend, the current state of affairs sees Almeria with a clear advantage.
Elche have been particularly disappointing in away games this season. A win against the Andalusians would be a big surprise. The favourite role in favour of Almeria against Elche according to the current odds is absolutely understandable.
The loss of Sadiq hurts the home side, but the return of Pozo or Costa will boost their quality. With the fans behind them and the away weakness of the visitors, six units are recommended as a bet in the cup duel between Almeria and Elche.
