Do the Bolts tie the series?
It’s actually happened and the reigning champions from Tampa have lost two straight playoff games for the first time in 57 games. Now, however, it’s back to their own arena. That a third defeat in a row will follow? Very unlikely.
Nevertheless, it is very strong how the Rangers can hold their own in this duel, as they were considered the clear underdogs, which was already proven by the betting odds in the first two duels. Nothing will change for Sunday either.
As much as we’ve been surprised by the Rangers so far, the starting position ahead of Game 3 is clear to us. The Bolts enter at home with their backs against the wall and will have to bring their A-game to the ice in this game.
Knowing them, they will be able to do that, which is why our prediction for Lightning vs Rangers is a clear win for the reigning champions, which could also be by more than just a one-goal difference.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
The Lightning’s streak has been broken and for the first time in 57 games they have lost two playoff games in a row. Will this throw them off track now? It’s not likely, especially since they’ve always been strong at home this postseason.
They have won four of their five home games so far. They only lost their very first game against Toronto, but they were a bit rusty at the beginning of that series. Since then, they have dominated their home games, most recently against the Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Florida Panthers.
Bolts not outclassed so far
Neither is there any current sense of inferiority in the Conference Finals. In Game 1 they won the shot ratio with 39:34, in Game 2 now also with 31:28. The only difference so far is therefore the effectiveness.
The Lightning were actually one of the best teams in the previous rounds. But with the Rangers, they have met their match in this respect. Nevertheless: Whoever regularly fires more shots on goal will also win games again in the long run – most likely already on Sunday.
Lightning always wake up too late
Catching that in both Game 1 and Game 2, Tampa was the dominant team in period 3. In both games, however, they completely slept through the middle period. They can’t let that happen to them a third time in a row.
However, they can build on their better functioning power play. In Game 2, they were at 100%, even though they were one of the weaker teams in the postseason with a success rate of only 23.1%. If they manage to score one or two goals on the power play again on Sunday, not much should go wrong.
So for Tampa Bay vs. New York, the odds on the Lightning are to be taken advantage of in any case. Pure win bets are a bit more difficult in terms of odds, but with a handicap of -1.5 or in combination with under 6.5 goals, you can also get very good value here.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
New York Rangers – Statistics & current form
Who would have thought at the middle of the season that the Rangers would end up being one of the very positive surprises of this season. At that time they fell into a hole and threatened to completely ruin such a strong season.
But led by the outstanding goalie Igor Shesterkin (Save Percentage Playoffs: 92.9 %), they overcame this phase as well as two series deficits in the first two playoff rounds. So we might as well call them comeback champions.
How do the Rangers handle a lead?
But now, for the first time, the situation is different and the men from the Big Apple are suddenly the hunted. Purely statistically, they are already 87.3% in the Stanley Cup Finals if we look at NHL history and teams with 2-0 series leads.
But that statistic is only worth half when it comes against the current champions, who also now enjoy home ice twice. Nor were they already inferior in the first two duels, but merely more ineffective. New York, on the other hand, converted a strong 14.52% of all shots in the first two duels.
Rangers with problems away from home so far
On top of that, it’s off to Amalie Arena in Florida. New York has a mediocre 2:5 record away from home this postseason. It is hard to believe that this will change at the reigning champions.
So for Bolts vs. Rangers, a tip on the Lightning is clearly to be favoured. Handicaps of -1.5 to -2 are also still a value that we can recommend for betting with a clear conscience.
Key Players:
G: Igor Shesterkin
D: K’Andre Miller
D: Jacob Trouba
LW: Chris Kreider
C: Mika Zibanejad
RW: Frank Vatrano
Tampa Bay Lightning – New York Rangers Head-to-head comparison / H2H-balance
All five previous duels in 2022 have gone to the Rangers. This is a statistic they will look fondly upon in the Big Apple, as many others tend to speak against them – most recently the shooting statistics in the first two duels.
With only 42.5 % success rate on face-offs, they are even the worst team in the entire post-season in this respect. But enough negative things about the Rangers, in the end they have a chance with their great effectiveness on Sunday, of course.
Still, we see the much higher probability in a Bolts win, who after all have only lost one home game in these playoffs. For Tampa vs. New York, the odds on the home team are thus clearly to be prioritised.
Tampa Bay Lightning – New York Rangers Tip
We have underestimated the Rangers so far, but that doesn’t stop us from going with the Lightning again now. Home advantage is a crucial factor in this matchup, which has already been proven in the first two games.
Moreover, since the Rangers have not been able to put much on the ice away from home so far, a bet on Tampa Bay -1.5 is our choice for Lightning vs Rangers. In addition, a goal from Nikita Kucherov is a bet we can also recommend in this context.
As was the case in Game 2, we expect subpar scores again in Game 3. In the previous round, the Bolts averaged just 4.0 total goals in their home games. A number we can very well imagine again for Sunday.
