Will the Bolts even up the series?
Goals, goals and goals again. For the first time since 1981, more than 6.5 goals have been scored in each of the first three games of the Stanley Cup Finals. So over-scoring dominates this series, as does home-ice advantage.
So the Bolts actually also have a chance on Wednesday to tie the series at 2-2 and make it a best-of-3 series. If they still win the Stanley Cup, it would be only the sixth comeback in NHL history from a 2-0 deficit in the Finals.
While the last two games were pretty clear-cut affairs in the end, we now return to our good old 50:50 wisdom for Game 4. The form of the day and the better goalie will decide the game and of course, as so often in the NHL, a little bit of match luck.
So for Tampa vs. Colorado our forecast for Game 4 after two clear wins is again a close game, which should also only be decided in the third period. The good odds on the Bolts are thus a little better to play this time again.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
This was the Lightning again on Monday, just like we were used to seeing in the Conference Finals. It seems like they always need a little bit of time to get going, and home field advantage is doing them a world of good in these playoffs.
They have a 7-1 record at home in the postseason and their only home loss came in their first home game against Toronto. Since then, the Bolts have an unblemished 7-0 record at home.
Bolts have found efficiency again
While the Lightning went completely scoreless in Game 2, they now scored a whopping six goals in Game 3 – on just 32 shots. The Avs, on the other hand, scored only two goals on 39 shots.
This efficiency already made the Bolts strong in the previous rounds, where they were often the team with fewer shots on goal, especially against the Maple Leafs and Panthers. If they keep up this coolness, it could be a very long finals series.
Vasilevskiy makes the difference
It’s not the first time Andrei Vasilevskiy has helped decide a game for the Lightning. And it won’t be the last time either. With a save percentage of 94.9%, he was also a full 17.3% better than his counterpart Kuemper, who was even replaced midway through the game.
This advantage at the goalie position (playoffs: 92.05 to 89.2%) could tip the scales again on Wednesday, which is why we even slightly favour the odds on Tampa for Lightning vs. Avalanche.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Steven Stamkos
RW: Nikita Kucherov
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
The first loss after previously seven series in a row is not yet a leg break for the Avalanche. However, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to put this one away easily or whether they will be a little impressed.
The 2:6 was also the highest defeat they have conceded so far in this year’s playoffs. It was also the first time in over a month that they were held to under three goals. Bolts goalie Vasilevskiy was on fire, driving the Avs forwards to despair by the dozen.
Goalie disadvantage obvious
Although the 7-0 shutout from Game 2 masked some things, it’s abundantly clear that the goalie position is the Avs’ Achilles heel. Their number 1 Darcy Kuemper, for example, has a save percentage of only 89.2% over the postseason.
It would be the first time in a long time that a starting goalie on a Stanley Cup winner would be at under 90%. That also shows how good the Avs are offensively to make up for it, but it doesn’t always work either.
Powerplay of the Avs still outstanding
What they can rely on, though, even on weak days like Monday, is their overtime game. Once again, they scored twice on the power play, giving them a strong 33.9% success rate (league best) over the playoffs.
That could be decisive again on Wednesday, if they can improve defensively (and with the goalies). Their goalie weakness, however, has us favouring a pick on the Bolts for Tampa vs. Colorado for Game 4.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Statistics Highlights for Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
After seven wins in a row the Avs lost again and then very clearly. This means that the head-to-head comparison of the last three years is now also 2:5 and not quite as bad from the Lightning’s point of view.
In addition, they were able to build up a little momentum, which now needs to be confirmed. Their advantage is that they had the same situation in the round before, where they were also down 0:2 and then won both their home games.
That is their goal for Wednesday and we see it as realistic, especially since they have improved a lot offensively. For Bolts vs. Avs, a bet on Tampa is thus even slightly more advisable than on Colorado.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Colorado Avalanche Tip
Three times in a row over 6.5 goals, it would stand to reason to bet on over-points for Game 4 now as well. However, we would be very cautious about this option, as it is rather common for Stanley Cup Finals games to be low-scoring.
Thus, for Game 4, we are betting on home field advantage, which has been a reliable factor in Bolts games of late. For Tampa vs. Colorado, the forecast on the Lightning is therefore our number 1 betting recommendation at good value.
As an alternative, we see Victor Hedman scoring in this game. He is already at 17 scoring points in 20 games this postseason, which is statistically close to a point per game. In the game Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche the betting odds on Hedman scoring are around 1.55.
