Will the defending champions advance to the Olympic final?
The four semi-finalists in the men’s ice hockey tournament in Beijing have been decided. It is already certain that the gold medal will go to a team from Europe. This prediction was not too bold in the run-up to the Winter Games, as the USA and Canada were particularly hard-pressed by the NHL’s refusal to release their professionals for the Olympics.
Despite this, it has to be said that the semifinals are more than worthy, because among others, Russia and Sweden will meet. These are two teams that have been among the best teams there are in ice hockey for decades. One of the two opponents will advance to the grand final on Friday, the other will have to be content with the bronze medal match.
The slightly better impression was perhaps made by the Scandinavians, who did not enter this semi-final without defeat either, but who seemed more confident overall than the team from the Russian Olympic Committee. Therefore, we are also inclined to make a prediction on the progress of the Tre Kronor in the duel between Russia and Sweden.
The Russians are playing a bit the narrow version of the Olympic champions. It wasn’t entirely clear in the games so far whether the Russians were just doing what was needed. In any case, the performances so far won’t be enough to get them into the final, but the potential for an improvement is definitely there.
Russia – Statistics & current form
It is no longer the hockey that the Russians played for many years. The Sbornaja was a passing machine of the very first order, but now coach Alexei Zhamnov’s team plays rather undercooled. If you want to see a spectacle at this tournament in Beijing, you won’t be served by the Russian team, apart from the last group game against the Czech Republic.
Strong Russian defence
The Sbornaja is playing rather minimalistically through this tournament. But that also means that the defence is generally outstanding. In the group stage, there was a 1:0 win against Switzerland. They won 2:0 against the Danes, and the 5:6 after overtime against the Czech Republic was the big exception.
In the quarter-finals, when they had to face the Olympic newcomer Denmark again, the Russians did not let themselves be lured out of their reserve. Veteran Vadim Shipachyov scored the early lead, but the Danes equalised in the middle period. Mikita Nesterov, however, gave Russia the lead again in the second period. In the last period the decision was made.
The Russians took advantage of an overtime and Slava Voynov scored after 55:45 minutes to make the final score 3:1. The performances so far make it clear that one should not expect a shooting match in the semifinals on Friday. That’s why we would be very cautious and predict less than 4.5 goals in this duel between Russia and Sweden.
The Russia squad:
Goal: Fedotov, Samonov, Bilyalov
Defence: Yelesin, Telegin, Voynov, Sharipzynov, Yakovlev, Nikishin, Minulin, Nesterov
Attack: Voronkov, Andronov, Karnaukhov, Plotnikov, Galiev, Kayumov, Grigorenko, Tkachyov, Slepyshev, Chibisov, Gritsyuk, Shipachyov, Semyonov, Gusev
Head Coach: Zhamnov
Sweden – Statistics & current form
In essence, the Swedes are playing an outstanding tournament. In the four games so far, the Scandinavians had only two of twelve periods in which they had problems. It was the last period in the group phase against Latvia and against Finland. Otherwise, the Swedes are extremely good defensively and also create numerous scoring chances.
Three wins in four games
After the two opening victories against Latvia and Slovakia, they had to concede defeat to their neighbours from Finland after leading 3-0 after 40 minutes. In the overtime they finally conceded a 3:4 defeat. Coach Johan Garpenlöv obviously drew the right conclusions from this defeat, because in the quarter-final against Canada, the Swedes defended very well throughout the entire game.
It was perhaps the fastest game of the tournament, but also the match with the fewest scoring chances. The score was still 0-0 after two periods, but in the final period the Tre Kronor managed to turn the game on their side. Once again it was Lucas Wallmark who put his team in front, scoring the third important goal in Beijing.
The Canadians were forced into action and took out their goalie shortly before the end. The Swedes took advantage of the Maple Leafs’ empty goal and scored through Anton Lander to make it a decisive 2-0. If the Scandinavians now manage to remain as stable in the semifinals, we think a prediction on a Swedish success is in order between Russia and Sweden.
The Sweden squad:
Goal: Johansson, Hellberg, Reidelborn
Defence: Folin, Fantenberg, Tömmernes, Bengtsson, Hultström, Holm, Pudas, Lennström
Attack: Olofsson, Friberg, Rydahl, Krüger, Everberg, Holmberg, Wallmark, Nordström, Brodin, Klingberg, Lander, Linus Johansson, de la Rose, Lars Johansson
Head Coach: Garpenlöv
Russia – Sweden Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
It sounds surprisingly little, but the ice hockey greats from Russia and Sweden have only faced each other 26 times on the ice. In the direct comparison, the Sbornaja is ahead with 16:9 victories. There has only been one draw. The last encounter had only negative aspects for the Swedes, which have to be ignored before this semifinal on Friday.
At last year’s World Cup, the two teams faced each other in the group stage. The Tre Kronor needed a win in regulation time to avoid elimination in the preliminary round. The Russians won 3:2 after a penalty shootout, which was one of the Swedish ice hockey team’s darkest hours in recent years.
Russia – Sweden Tip
Russia are the defending champions but have not performed like it in Beijing. Although there were three wins in four games, they struggled twice against Denmark and once against Switzerland. The Swedes performed better and won clearly against the semi-finalists from Slovakia, had the runners-up from Finland on the brink of defeat and won against Canada.
So the Tre Kronor performed better and that’s why we see the Swedes as favourites. They have to take revenge for the defeat at last year’s World Cup.
We think that there will be very few goals. For long periods, both defences have been very stable and have generally conceded few goals. Bets on less than 4.5 goals seem plausible. However, we have decided to play the betting odds on the Scandinavians advancing between Russia and Sweden.
