Will the Poles cause the next sensation?

The EURO Basket 2022 is in its final stages. On Friday, the two semi-finals will take place in the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Berlin. Some teams you would have expected to be there will be missed, especially their superstars. Serbia with Nikola Jokic, defending champions Slovenia with Luka Doncic or the Greeks around perhaps the best basketball player in the world at the moment, Giannis Antetokounmpo, all eliminated early.

With world champions Spain and Olympic silver medallists France, two of the teams from the extended circle of favourites are still in the tournament. Germany had high hopes that they could make it into the medal round as hosts. Sensationally, the Final Four is completed by the team from Poland. For the first time since 1971, a Polish team has reached a European Championship semifinal.

The elimination of the superstars shows that at this EURO Basket the team is in the foreground. The big names are all capable of deciding games on their own, but the semi-finalists have advanced to the preliminary round thanks to a strong team spirit and great team unity.

However, this European Championship has shown that the underdogs rise up. That’s why we wouldn’t completely write off the Poles. But they will have to rise above themselves again on Friday to reach a European Championship final for the first time in almost 60 years. However, we also think that in this match between Poland and France you will be more likely to be successful with a bet on a French victory.

Poland – Statistics & current form

Since December 2020, Igor Milicic, a Croatian with a Polish passport, has been the coach of the Polish basketball team. At the same time, he was coach at Stal Ostrwo, but was fired there before the European Championship. So the Eagles were to travel to the European Championship with such a coach. The critics in their own country were getting louder and louder. The Polish team was not expected to do much, especially since they had just lost the qualification for the World Cup next year against Estonia, Israel and Germany.

WM missed, but European Championship semi-finals

Now, however, this team is indeed in the semi-finals of the EURO Basket. The record of 5:2 victories is quite respectable. In the group stage, there were victories against Israel, Holland and the Czech Republic and expected defeats against Finland and Serbia. Just reaching the play-offs was already a success. The fact that it continues at all after that is very astonishing.

The Poles were already the big underdogs in the round of 16 against Ukraine, having lost to them several times recently. But the best game of the last few years came in the quarter-finals, when the Eagles managed to dethrone the defending champions Slovenia around superstar Luka Doncic.

Igor Milicic’s team already led 58:39 at the break, then was completely powerless in the third quarter, which went to the Slovenians with 6:24. In the last ten minutes, however, the Eagles pulled themselves together and won 90-87. Once again, Mateusz Ponitka was the best scorer with 26 points. If the underdog continues to perform like this on Friday, the odds on a handicap win (+9.5) for the Eagles in the duel between Poland and France could become interesting.

Predicted line-up of Poland:
Zyskowski, Balcerowski, Sokolowski, Cel, Slaughter, Ponitka, Kolenda, Dziewa, Olejniczak, Michalak, Garbacz, Schenk – Coach: Milicic

France – Statistics & current form

Next to Spain, the French are the most successful European basketball nation in recent years. At the EURO Basket 2022, however, the Equipe Tricolore is riding the razor’s edge one after the other. However, this can also be seen as positive, because Vincent Collet’s team decides the matches in their favour in crunch time. This has not only to do with nerves of steel, but also with great quality, although here and there a little luck was also involved.

Kings of Overtime

The preliminary round was very tough with matches against Germany, Lithuania and Slovenia. As third in the group, the French then entered the playoffs and there it was very close twice. Against Turkey in the round of 16 and against Italy in the quarter-finals, the Equipe Tricolore had to go into overtime. Perhaps you could also predict a draw between France and Poland at the end of regulation time.

The French have shown in this tournament that you should never write them off. Against the Turks, they rallied eight points in the last quarter to go into overtime and then won there by one point. Les Bleus were also on the brink of elimination against Italy on Wednesday. Seconds before the end, the Italians led 77-73 but missed the decisive throws to win.

France came back with two baskets to go to overtime and there you could feel that Italy had lived beyond their means in regulation time. In the end, France still won clearly with 93:85. Thomas Heurtel was the man of the match with the most points and the most assists. But the match-winner was perhaps Rudy Gobert, who grabbed important rebounds under the basket for the Equipe Tricolore.

Predicted line-up of France:
Okobo, M’Baye, Luwawu-Cabarrot, Heurtel, Yabusele, Fournier, Maledon, Poirier, Albicy, Tarpey, Gobert, Fall – Coach: Collet

Poland – France Direct comparison / H2H-balance

In total, the national teams from Poland and France have met 16 times in an international match. In the direct comparison, the Polish Eagles are actually still ahead with 9:7 victories. However, the balance of power has clearly shifted towards the Equipe Tricolore in recent years. Nevertheless, the last duels were relatively close.

In each of the last two European Championships, there was this encounter when the Poles were also the big underdogs. Nevertheless, Les Bleus won twice by only three points. Therefore, it looks as if the French will have problems with the Polish basketball team’s style of play.

Poland – France Tip

The Equipe Tricolore has already been through a lot at this EURO Basket and really suffered twice, especially in the playoffs against Turkey and Italy. But whoever prevails against such odds also has good prospects of becoming European champions in the end. First, however, they have to make it to the final.

The French are the clear favourites. But the Poles obviously don’t take such roles too seriously, because no one would have bet on Igor Milicic’s team knocking out the defending champions from Slovenia in the quarter-finals.

But we think that the class of the French team will prevail in the end. However, the European Championship has shown that Vincent Collet’s team does not sweep opponents off their feet. That’s why we don’t expect a clear victory for the Olympic silver medallist. We have decided to play the betting odds on a Polish handicap win (+9.5) between Poland and France