Will the champions strike back right away?
Will it come down to the unthinkable or the inevitable again on Friday? The Bolts haven’t lost two in a row since 57 playoff games. In Game 2 at Madison Square Garden, that streak will be put to the test once again.
This is just one of the questions that await us in the Rangers’ second clash against the Lightning. Another is whether these playoffs are finally degenerating into a high-scoring postseason. Rarely have there been 22 goals to marvel at in the first two games of Conference Finals.
We’re not counting on that for Friday, though. Tampa underestimated New York a bit in Game 1, but that won’t happen to them a second time. We also strongly expect Andrei Vasilevskiy to step up his game.
He has been one of the best goalies in the postseason until this series and should help the Bolts fight back. For Rangers vs. Lightning, our prediction for Game 2 is therefore also an away win and the 1-1 tie in the series.
New York Rangers – Statistics & current form
New York, New York, who would have thought it. The 6-2 opening win surprised not only the betting public, but most NHL pundits as well. After all, only two of 16 experts at NHL.com were in favour of the Rangers.
However, that will remain the case for the time being, as the Rangers first have to confirm their opening win. A 2-0 win would probably make some people change their minds. For Game 2, however, the New Yorkers are once again considered underdogs – despite their home advantage.
Rangers hit from all positions
We already talked about the Rangers’ efficiency in our preview of this series, as they faced the Panthers with 52 fewer shots and still won the series. They followed that up immediately in Game 1 against Tampa.
Again, they trailed in shots 34-39, but scored 6-2. That makes for a 17.65% to 5.13% efficiency advantage. If they manage to keep that number consistently higher than the Lightning, they will win the series.
Goalie duel decisive
We alone lack faith that the Rangers’ seventh-best offense statistically (3.17 goals per game), of all teams, can consistently beat Andrei Vasilevskiy. In Game 1, they gave him more goals against than the strong Hurricanes managed in an entire series.
Since this is likely to remain a one-off, they have to get their own defence stable. Thus, we expect significantly fewer goals again on Friday. Under-scoring is therefore a bet that is also very popular.
In general, a bet on Tampa + Under 6.5 goals is our recommendation for Rangers against Bolts, as we can combine the under points with a probable Bolts comeback.
Key Players:
G: Igor Shesterkin
D: K’Andre Miller
D: Jacob Trouba
LW: Chris Kreider
C: Mika Zibanejad
RW: Frank Vatrano
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
Everything spoke in Tampa’s favour on Wednesday and it may have been for that very reason that the Bolts took Game 1 a little too laxly. Especially in the second period, which they lost 3-1, they couldn’t keep up with the Rangers’ intensity.
10:17 shots in this period also indicate that they completely slept through it. That won’t happen to them again, because there is no team in the league that is better at fighting back than Tampa Bay.
Will the 58th strike follow?
57 games have passed since the Bolts once lost two playoff games in a row – regardless of whether it was a home or away game. This series is unique in the NHL and shows their great consistency over the last three to four years.
This is partly thanks to Head Coach Jon Cooper, the master of “adjustments”. No coach is better at pointing out flaws in a game and finding solutions for the next game.
Start in game 2 enormously important
So we can expect the Ligthning to start the second game incredibly hot and it would be no surprise if Tampa took the lead fairly quickly. In Game 1, the Rangers achieved this feat after only 71 seconds.
For New York vs. Tampa Bay, the odds on an early Bolts goal are thus good to take advantage of, as are those on a win at the end. We should be a little cautious with a handicap, as we expect a low scoring game, where the win differential is often rather tight.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
New York Rangers – Tampa Bay Lightning Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Do the Lightning like the Rangers in terms of their style of play after all? At least Game 1 could be evidence of that. It was, after all, the Rangers’ fourth consecutive win over Tampa in 2022.
It won’t be as easy as that record suggests, however, on Friday. We’ve already addressed the Bolts’ incredible streak of not losing two playoff games in a row for 57 games.
Incidentally, these teams also met in the playoffs in 2015. Then, too, New York failed to win two in a row and the Bolts won the series. Another reason to clearly favour a Tampa bet on the Rangers against the Lightning.
New York Rangers – Tampa Bay Lightning Tip
The Lightning were already challenged a few times in the series against the Maple Leafs not to lose the tie and they managed to equalise every time there as well. We just don’t see a team in this league that is mentally stronger.
Of course, this is also due to the fact that they have won the Stanley Cup twice recently – not the worst way to gain self-confidence. Thus, for Rangers vs. Bolts, the odds on Tampa are our No.1 betting option, best even combined with the expected subpar points.
Why are sub-par points expected? Because in Tampa’s four games in the round before, they only averaged 4.0 total goals. Since we expect the Bolts to dominate this game, Friday should be another low-scoring affair and betting on Under 5.5 goals makes for a nice betting alternative.
