Will the Pats get their sixth win in a row?
The hottest team in the league meets the best team in the AFC on Sunday. However, what sounds like a close duel and nailbaiter could be a clear-cut affair in reality. The Pats are currently overrunning just about everything and everyone with Belichick’s playing philosophy.
Five wins in a row speak for themselves, but the average margin of victory speaks even louder. They put an average of 25 points between themselves and their opponents during this phase – including the Chargers, Panthers and Browns, who are not completely weak teams.
That should be too much for the Titans without Derrick Hendry, even if they still lead the AFC with 8-3 wins. But last Sunday against Houston it became obvious that Ryan Tannehill is not the same without his top runner.
So for Patriots vs. Titans, our prediction is a clear home win for the Patriots, who would also reclaim the No. 1 spot from the Bills, who already won on Thursday.
Kickoff of the top game is at 7:00 pm on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The match will be broadcast live by ProSieben Maxx and by DAZN.
New England Patriots – Statistics & current form
New England is currently running its lonely circles and there are already more and more voices that see the Pats with a chance of a Super Bowl appearance again just a year and a half after Brady’s departure. That would truly be the shortest rebuild in NFL history.
Making it possible are their usual strong defence, head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Mac Jones. The two already seem to have developed the kind of chemistry that was the recipe for success between Brady and Belichick for years to come.
Solid passing game – balanced running game
The recipe seems to be extremely simple. Lots of short passes, lots of running game (30 carries against Atlanta, after all) and the occasional pass action play. But it’s the match-up that makes the difference here.
While with other top teams it is always predictable what is coming (Cowboys, Browns, Seahawks), the change seems to be more fluid with New England. No coach other than Belichick has such a knack for knowing when a surprising moment makes sense.
Defense stronger every game
However, with all the praise for Belichick and Jones, we also have to mention their defence again. They now rank 1st in the NFL with only 16.1 points allowed per game and this is unlikely to change by the end of the season.
Especially against the pass, they allow only 211.5 yards per game, which could be important against the Titans, who are missing their No. 1 rusher. Thus, the odds on New England are clearly recommended for Pats vs. Titans, as the matchup also suits them.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jonnu Smith
K: Nick Folk
Tennessee Titans – stats & current form
The Titans still lead the AFC, but the surprising loss against the Houston Texans was a real setback. If you lose to a team like that, you can’t really be in good shape.
This is also the case with Tennessee, who have been stumbling since the loss of Henry. Even before that, in the extremely close 23:21 win against New Orleans, this was obvious, especially if we take the Saints’ other results into account.
Adrian Peterson still not a big reinforcement
With all of Tennessee’s Struggle, of course, first and foremost is a name that can’t contribute at all: Derrick Henry. The running back, who was on course for MVP until his injury, is missing at every turn.
His short-term replacement Adrian Peterson has a big name to show, but his performance so far does not reflect that. 21 yards against the Rams, 21 against the Saints and 40 against the Texans. That makes a total of 82, a number that Derrick Henry achieved in half a game.
His average of 3.0 is also far from Henry’s and so it is no great surprise that the Titans are weak in the running game. Ergo, also in the passing game, as that is intricately intertwined in their game plan. Without Henry, Tannehill is doomed to take more chances.
Tannehill back to mediocrity
Then that has consequences. For example, the quarterback threw four interceptions in the last game against Houston. Since Henry’s loss, his passer rating has slipped to 83.3 on average, which is of course due in part to the lack of a running game.
Since we don’t expect them to get a handle on that so quickly, we see them as having no chance against New England. This means that kicker Randy Bullock will have his work cut out for him again, as he will have to make longer field goals to score points.
If he can do that, the Titans could at least make it a reasonably close game. In addition to betting on the Pats, New England vs. Tennessee should also be bet on over three field goals, as the Pats also have a busy kicker in Nick Folk.
Key Players:
QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Adrian Peterson
WR: A.J. Brown
WR: Nick Westbrook
K: Randy Bullock
New England Patriots – Tennessee Titans Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The Titans were able to beat the Pats in the 2020 AFC Wild Card Game, also ending Tom Brady’s playoff career in a Patriots jersey. Even without Brady on the field, New England still has a score to settle.
Previously, the Titans were also very good to the Pats, as they generally won seven of the last ten head-to-head duels. In New England, there were even six successes in a row for Coach Belichick’s men before this play-off defeat.
But the 2020 game has already shown that we should not expect too many points, which makes high handicap bets on New England difficult, even if we see them as clear favourites. Thus, on Pats vs. Titans, a bet on over three field goals total is our No.1 betting recommendation
New England Patriots – Tennessee Titans Tip
The Pats field the best defence in the NFL. In addition, the Titans are stumbling in the absence of Derrick Henry. Thus, New England should be considered the clear favourite – in a match-up that doesn’t promise too many points.
However, since we always expect Tennessee to score at least 15-17 points, a handicap bet on the Pats -7 seems possible, but not our top recommendation. This one is on Patriots vs Titans instead a bet on Over 3 Field Goals.
As a betting alternative, we see betting on Under points here, despite the only 43.5 total points being scheduled. Since there should be more field goals than tocuhdowns, the total points should not exactly skyrocket.
