Who will win the division title in the AFC East?

Buffalo Bills fans definitely can’t complain about a lack of excitement on the last matchday of the regular season in the NFL. However, the fans of the franchise from New York State could have done without a potentially dramatic showdown. Before the start of Week 18, the Bills still haven’t punched their ticket to the postseason. The worst-case scenario is that the season ends for Josh Allen and Co. on Sunday, while the best-case scenario is that they win the AFC East and enjoy home-field advantage in the first round of the 2024 playoffs.

However, the task for head coach Sean McDermott’s team will not be an easy one, as they host the American Football Conference’s (AFC) strongest franchise at home. The fact that the odds are nevertheless swinging in favor of the visitors on Sunday night between the Bills and Dolphins is primarily due to recent impressions

While the home side from the “Sunny State” have lost two of their last four matches, Buffalo are one of the most in-form teams in the entire NFL. The Bills have left the pitch victorious four times in a row, which has given them plenty of confidence. For this reason, among others, it might make sense to predict a win for the visitors in the direct clash for the division title between the Dolphins and the Bulls. Should we also expect a similar outcome to the first meeting of the season between these teams, we can look forward to plenty of points and numerous offensive highlights

Miami Dolphins – stats & current form

Just three weeks ago, the Miami Dolphins had hopes of possibly earning a bye into the first round of the playoffs as the first seed in the AFC. Before the final game of the season, the team of cult coach Mike McDaniel suddenly even has to worry about home-field advantage in the wild-card round. If the tip on the visiting team comes true in the eagerly awaited divisional duel between the Dolphins and Bills, the latter would climb past Miami into first place in the AFC East thanks to the head-to-head win.

The good news is that the Fins are in control of their own destiny in their own arena and at least no longer have to worry about a play-off ticket. However, the latest results are less encouraging. Miami lost 19:56 (!) to Super Bowl contender Baltimore in the previous week and lacked virtually everything that had characterized them this season. Strictly speaking, however, this continued a certain downward trend that had already been foreshadowed by the embarrassing 27:28 home defeat against the staid Tennessee Titans in mid-December.

Will Miami be shown the limits by the next top team?

However, this defeat was also the only one in front of a home crowd. The home record thus stands at 7-1 and could be a clear indication to play the odds on a home win in the last match of the NFL schedule of the regular season between the Dolphins and the Bills. Because these are surprisingly high at 2.30 on balance, value seems to be called for.

However, we are a little more cautious in this respect and argue primarily with the very fragile defense, which has been severely weakened by the early season retirement of defensive end Bradley Chubb. With an average of 23.1 counterpoints per game, Miami’s defense is average at best. The showpiece, on the other hand, is clearly the offense, which ranks first in the league in almost all relevant categories.

However, the flow of the first half of the season has been somewhat lost of late, so we wouldn’t necessarily bet on the men from Florida, who could lose their protracted division lead, being able to shift up a gear or two in time for the end of the regular season. The fact that second-best wide receiver Waddle and starting running back Raheem Mostert are expected to return from injury on Sunday night doesn’t change that.

Key players for the Miami Dolphins:

• QB: Tua Tagovailoa
• RB: Raheem Mostert
• WR: Tyreek Hill
• WR: Jaylen Waddle
• TE: Durham Smythe
• K: Jason Sanders

Buffalo Bills – stats & current form

Somehow, the Buffalo Bills have been very hard to pin down in the first two-thirds of the season. Although many statistics actually attest to an all-round satisfactory season for the multiple Super Bowl participants, the Bills still had an even 6-6 record at the beginning of December and were more worried than ever about making the playoffs. However, coach Sean McDermott’s team obviously seems to work well under pressure. Buffalo has won all of its last four games.

As the Chiefs and Cowboys, two top teams and potential contenders for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, were brought to their knees in the course of this winning streak, the bookmakers believe that Josh Allen and Co. can also win at the Hard Rock Stadium. This would be tantamount to winning the division title in the AFC East.

Buffalo has a top 5 defensive unit

However, if the Dolphins’ rivalry matchup against the Bills turns out to be the home team’s prediction, the worst-case scenario could even be an elimination from the upcoming postseason. But only if both the Steelers win against the Ravens and the Jaguars win against the Titans on Saturday.

Conversely, this also means that if Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore the day before, the Bills would at least be guaranteed a spot in the wild-card round. If this should unexpectedly happen and the Ravens team, which presumably consists almost entirely of supplementary players, should actually win, the stakes for this match should definitely be reconsidered/adjusted for any bets.

Otherwise, it should be noted that the Bills are currently relying more on their defense than their offense. Josh Allen is more of a positive presence as a runner in play-action situations, but continues to make too many simple mistakes through the air. However, we think it’s only a matter of time before the quarterback’s terrific throwing arm is used as a weapon again. With Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs, there’s no shortage of good starting options.

Key players for the Buffalo Bills:

• QB: Josh Allen
• RB: James Cook
• WR: Gabe Davis
• WR: Stefon Diggs
• TE: Dalton Kincaid
• K: Tyler Bass

Miami Dolphins – Buffalo Bills head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The direct comparison of these two division rivals, who meet twice every season, also speaks a clear language in favor of the Bills, who have won ten of the last eleven encounters. The first duel this season also clearly went to Buffalo. At home, they came out on top 48:20 at the beginning of October, dissecting the vulnerable Fins defense by every trick in the book. Josh Allen was the match winner with four touchdown passes and over 300 yards. If Allen completes at least two of his passes for TDs again on Monday night, an attractive 1.83 can be dusted off for it.

Miami Dolphins – Buffalo Bills Tip

NFL officials definitely had something in mind when they picked the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills matchup for prime time on Sunday night American time and Sunday night German time. Regardless of how the previous games end, this head-to-head clash is definitely about the AFC East title. The winner will win its division and gain home-field advantage in the first playoff round. While the Fins have long since punched their ticket to the postseason, Buffalo could even fall out of the coveted spots in a worst-case scenario.

However, we are confident that Josh Allen and his colleagues will take their fate into their own hands and confirm their excellent form of recent weeks. After four wins in a row, the Bills are brimming with confidence. The defense, which has allowed the fourth fewest points of all NFL teams, can be relied upon. While the offense is still waiting for a real chest-burster, it has plenty of playmakers in both the running and passing game that can pose problems for Miami’s fragile defense.

It should also be noted that Buffalo already won the first game this season against McDaniel’s charges 48:20. Injury concerns for Miami complicate the endeavor from their point of view, so in the end we tend to bet on a handicap win for the visitors (-2.5) between the Dolphins and the Bills.