Will the world champion make it to the final

It’s all up for grabs now at the 2022 World Water Polo Championships in Hungary. The four semi-finalists have been decided. One win from the last two games means a medal for sure, two wins is the World Cup title. In the first semi-final, the reigning world champions from Italy will face the silver medallists from the Rio Olympics, namely the selection from Greece.

It is safe to say that this match was a worthy semi-final, even if the hosts would have liked to have their own team still in this round. The Italians, however, eliminated the team from Hungary in the quarter-finals. The Greeks had the supposedly easiest task in the last round and prevailed against the selection of the United States.

The Setebello are considered favourites in this match by the betting providers tested. However, it became clear in the quarter-finals that the top teams in the water polo world are close. We do not expect a high victory, but believe that in the duel between Italy and Greece, a prediction on an Italian success should fit.

The Ethniki from Greece, however, are extremely unpleasant to play against and will probably make life difficult for the defending champions. Especially in the decisive rounds, the focus is very much on the defence. Therefore, we can imagine placing a bet on rather few goals between Italy and Greece.

Italy – Statistics & current form

The Italians have the best club teams in the world and because many local players are under contract at Pro Recco or Brescia, it is not surprising that the four-time world champions can also currently send one of the best national teams into the pool. The Setebello are only two wins away from defending their title for the first time at a World Championship.

Taking out the hosts

The preliminary round was still somewhat mixed. After a clear victory against South Africa and the cancelled match against the Canadians, the Italians were narrowly defeated by Spain in a remake of the 2019 World Cup final. As group runners-up, the world champions had to take the round of 16 route, but perhaps that did Alessandro Campagna’s team some good.

The Setebello were able to regain their rhythm and won clearly against the team from Australia with 17:6. The absolute cracker was then on the agenda in the quarter-finals against Hungary. Both teams competed at the World Championships to win the title. Accordingly, it was a match on an extremely high level. In the end, the Italians won by a narrow margin of 11:10 and are now fighting for the medals.

On the offensive, it was Francesco di Fulvio who put his stamp on the game with four goals. In goal, superstar Marco del Lungo was once again a bench. With 55 per cent of balls saved, he secured the victory for his team in the end. If he manages to nail the goal shut in the semi-final as well, then we will mainly be looking at the odds for a victory for the world champions in the clash between Italy and Greece.

Predicted line-up of Italy:
del Lungo, Nicosia – di Fulvio, Damonte, Iocchi Gratta, Fondelli, Cannella, Marziali, Echenique, Presciutti, Bruni, di Somma, Dolce – Campagna

Greece – Statistics & current form

The Greeks have really been close very often and have won medals at major sporting events in water polo every now and then. The chances are not bad that the Ethniki will now also succeed in doing so at the World Championships in Hungary. However, Greece is still waiting for its first major title. Last year at the Olympics in Tokyo, the gold medal was missed in the last few metres and one could possibly think that it is now the Greeks’ turn to win.

Lucky draw into the semi-finals

The fact that Theodoros Vlachos’ team is in the semi-finals is therefore no surprise. However, the Greeks have probably had the easiest programme up to this point. In the group phase, they drew with Croatia in the opening game before securing two wins against Japan and Germany. That was enough to win the group and qualify directly for the quarter-finals.

Here, too, the Hellenes had the luck of the draw on their side, because with the USA they had to deal with the opponents of this round who were probably the weakest in terms of quality. So Greece did not have much trouble making it to the semi-finals. At the break the score was still 7:7, but in the last two quarters the Ethniki turned up the heat.

In the end, the Greeks won 16:11 and have thus not lost for five games. Stylianos Argyropoulos in particular was in great form, converting all five of his throws. Panagiotis Tzortzatos had his problems in goal, however, and if he can’t put them right, we wouldn’t predict a Greek victory in the Italy-Greece clash.

Predicted line-up of Greece:
Zerdevas, Tzortzatos – Genidounias, Skoumpakis, Kalogeropoulos, Fountoulis, Dervisis, Argyropoulos, Gouvis, Kakaris, Nikolaidis, Vlachopoulos – Coach: Vlachos

Italy – Greece Direct Comparison / H2H Record

Since the World League at the end of 2010, the selection teams from Italy and Greece have played a total of 20 duels. In this period, the direct comparison is in favour of the Italians, who are 10:7 ahead after victories. Three times they parted with a draw. This statistic shows that both teams have performed at roughly the same level in recent years.

However, the Ethniki have only won one of their last ten duels against the Setebello, and that was in the World League last year. At the 2019 World Cup, the Italians won against the Hellenes in the quarter-finals on their way to the title. The last encounter was in the group stage of the Olympic Games last year. There, the two rivals parted with a 6-6 draw.

Italy – Greece Tip

On the one hand, the Italians have already lost one match at the World Cup in Hungary, on the other hand, they had to deal with the strong Spaniards, who are fighting for the World Cup title. The Greeks, on the other hand, are still undefeated, but with the exception of the Croats, they had to play rather weaker opponents in the preliminary round. We think that the reigning world champions must be favoured in this semi-final.

After all, they knocked out the strong hosts from Hungary in the quarter-finals, which clearly shows what the Italians are capable of. Moreover, the Setebello have lost only one of their last ten matches against the Hellenes.

We expect two very strong defensive lines and can imagine relatively few goals being scored. Given the density of performance, we would also advise against looking too much at a handicap victory. So we decided to play the betting odds on an Italian victory between Italy and Greece.