Will the world champions fail against the hosts?

It’s not as if the 2022 World Water Polo Championship hasn’t had any highlights yet. After all, there was a rematch of the 2019 World Cup final in the group stage with the clash between Spain and Italy, but the real thrillers will now come from the quarter-finals onwards. If we take the United States out of the equation, then seven of the eight teams have hopes of winning the title.

We look at the match between Hungary and Italy at this point. This is the match between the record Olympic champions and the record world champions. By the way, the Italians are also the reigning world champions. Both teams have enough class to play for the title in the final round in Budapest.

We wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two teams won World Cup gold in the end. Conversely, this means that it will be extremely difficult to make a prediction in the duel between Hungary and Italy. The Magyars made a very confident impression in the preliminary rounds, but also had no opponents of the quality of Setebello.

A big advantage for the home side, however, is the National Swimming Centre in Budapest. The Wembley Stadium of water polo will provide an incredible atmosphere. It’s not often in this sport that the stands become a witch’s cauldron, but on Wednesday that’s exactly what can be expected.

Hungary – statistics & current form

The World Cup in Hungary has only been added to the programme at very short notice. That is why many teams are in a state of upheaval. But since it became clear that the Magyars will play for World Cup medals on home soil again after 2017, there is a lot of euphoria around Budapest. Coach Tamas Märcz has his top stars with him, such as Denes Varga or Adam Nagy.

On the way to the fourth title?

After 1973, 2003 and 2013, the fourth world championship title is to be won. This would make the Magyars, together with the Italians, the record winners of this competition. In the preliminary round, the hosts basically only prepared for the opening match against Montenegro, which was about winning the group. After the 12:8 victory, the fair was already read in this respect.

The 20:6 victory against Brazil was no more than a formality. Coach Tamas Märcz, however, was not at all satisfied with what his team delivered against Georgia. 18 goals of their own were strong, but 14 goals conceded kept the coach busy, so that on Wednesday against the Italians the focus should be on the defence of the Hungarians.

Therefore, we think it is also conceivable to make a prediction on sub-par goals in the match between Hungary and Italy. Who will prevail in the end will depend above all on the form of the superstars who will be deployed on both sides. After five wins in a row, Hungary will be looking to continue their run in the quarter-finals.

Predicted line-up of Hungary:
Levai, Vogel – Angyal, Manhercz, Pohl, Vamos, Mezei, Zalanki, Burian, Nagy, Varga, Jansik, Harai – Coach: Märcz

Italy – Statistics & current form

The fact that the world champions missed out on a direct place in the quarter-finals was no surprise when two of the best teams in the world already meet in the preliminary round. The Setebello had to admit defeat against Spain, whereby the circumstances before this remake of the World Cup final were not the best. The match against Canada scheduled immediately before had to be cancelled due to a pandemic.

Strong keeper guarantees success

The problem was that there was a hang-up afterwards. For a long time, the defending champions did not know whether they might have to face the Maple Leafs the next day. This uncertainty did the Italians no good. In the preliminary round, for example, there was an expectedly high victory against South Africa and a narrow defeat against Spain.

Perhaps it was also a good thing that the Setebello had to enter the pool in the round of 16. So they could acclimatise before the match against the Hungarians after the journey from Sopron to Budapest and already found their rhythm again. This was also evident in the knockout match against Australia, who have been quarter-finalists in the World Cup four times recently.

The world champions made short work of the Aussie Sharks and won 17:6 in the end. The match was virtually decided at the break with a score of 7:3. The keeper duo around top star Marco del Lungo was particularly outstanding. Together with Gianmarco Nicosia, the goalies defused 70 percent of all shots.

Projected line-up of Italy:
del Lungo, Nicosia – di Fulvio, Damonte, Iocchi Gratta, Fondelli, Cannella, Marziali, Echenique, Presciutti, Bruni, di Somma, Dolce – Campagna

Hungary – Italy Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Since the 2012 London Olympics, there have been a total of 18 head-to-head duels between the water polo teams from Hungary and Italy. Of course, the two great water polo nations have had numerous tough matches before, but this period will have to suffice for our consideration. The direct comparison speaks narrowly in favour of the Setebello with 8:7 victories, with three draws, in the last ten years.

That is why we expect a very close match in this quarter-final on Thursday as well. The Magyars have not won against the Hungarians for four games. The last encounter was less than a year ago. At the Olympic Games in Tokyo, the two teams parted with a 5:5 draw. Perhaps that is also a clue from relatively few goals on Wednesday.

Hungary – Italy Tip

We don’t expect any team to pull away early in this clash. The betting companies see Hungary and Spain as the top favourites for the title. However, we think that the Setebello should not be written off. The defending champions will make life difficult for the Magyars and, after all, Italy have not lost for four games.

The Hungarians won all their games in the preliminary round, but only had something of an acid test against Montenegro. The Italians already had to play to the limit against Spain and also showed what they are capable of against Australia. We have therefore decided to play the betting odds on a win for the defending champions in the match between Hungary and Italy.