Stroud vs. Flacco – which fairy tale will be continued?

Playoffs, baby! Now the NFL season starts from scratch, so to speak – and from now on every game is a knockout game in which only victory counts. When the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns open the postseason on Saturday night, two very surprising playoff contenders will meet in Texas.

DeMeco Ryans and his team have done it! By winning the “do or die” game against the Colts, the franchise from Texas secured a playoff ticket for the first time since 2019. Thanks to the Jaguars’ defeat on the final matchday, they even managed to win the AFC South division and so the fairytale of 1st-year head coach Ryans and his rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud continues in the postseason.

The Cleveland franchise coached by Kevin Stefanski qualified for the playoffs early on, despite the fact that the regular quarterback was injured during the season and the backups proved to be a mistake on several occasions. However, 38-year-old Joe Flacco, who the Browns brought out of retirement, so to speak, led the team to four wins in five games and they finished the regular season with eleven wins and six losses, which was enough for second place in the AFC North. Bookmaker Betano, for example, now sees the visitors slightly ahead in the first playoff round and the odds for Cleveland’s first postseason win since 2021 in the Texans vs. Browns duel are 1.70.

Houston Texans – Statistics & current form

Before we take a look at the home team, there is one player who has a lot to do with both franchises, even if he won’t be involved in the head-to-head clash. That player is Deshaun Watson, and we’ll jump back to 2021: Watson is under contract in Houston, but said in the offseason that he no longer wanted to play for the team. However, his transfer fell through due to sexual harassment allegations. On March 19, 2022, the playmaker – who was also suspended by the NFL at the time – was traded from Texas to Ohio for three valuable picks. Bear with us, however, for refraining from giving our Texans vs. Browns prediction the nickname “Watson Bowl.”

Positive forecast for the future

Meanwhile, rookie and 4th-overall pick C. J. Stroud is the new playmaker in Texans gear, making him the first quarterback since Watson to lead the franchise to the playoffs. The team lost the last postseason game in 2020 31:51 in Kansas City.

The biggest question for the hosts’ potent passing offense will be who can suit up at NRG Stadium on Saturday night. There is certainly hope that the wide receivers will be supported by either Robert Woods or Noah Brown. Recently, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz have been almost the sole pass receivers and that could be a real problem in the upcoming matchup. On the ground, the team moves the ball rather below average compared to the rest of the league and now one of the better run defenses awaits the two running backs Devin Singletary and Daemon Pierce.

At 20.8 points, the Texans’ defensive unit actually allows fewer points than their upcoming opponent. However, the passing defense, which has been thinned out due to injuries, has to be highlighted as the weakest personnel group. Opposing runs, on the other hand, have been well defended throughout the season, even if the Colts were able to record 227 rushing yards on the last matchday.

Key Players:

• QB: C. J. Stroud
• RB: Devin Singletary
• WR: Nico Collins
• TE: Dalton Schultz
• K: Ka’imi Fairbairn

Cleveland Browns – stats & current form

Let’s talk about Watson one last time: The horrendous-contract playmaker only got into six games this season due to injuries, though Cleveland won five of them. After his retirement, the coaching staff started experiments with PJ Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the quarterback position, but neither was convincing. With Flacco, a certain baseline in the passing game returned to this position and his statistics read quite impressively

Furious Flacco comeback

Five times he led the Browns onto the field from the start, in four games he threw the ball for more than 300 yards and scored a total of 13 touchdowns. His opponents intercepted one of his passes eight times, with two of those interceptions coming against the Texans in their first meeting a few weeks ago. Cleveland still won and Amari Cooper made franchise history by catching passes for a total of 265 yards.

Will the visitors find ways to use their pass receivers that well again in the upcoming duel? If they do, the Texans vs. Browns duel almost screams for a tip that the over/under of 44.5 points will be cracked. Alongside Cooper, it has been tight end David Njoku in particular who has impressed as a receiver since Flacco took over as the passer. He recorded 390 of his 882 receiving yards and four of his six touchdowns in five games with the oldie.

In terms of yards per game averaged by the opponents, the Browns defense was the best the NFL had to offer in the regular season and it was the pass defense in particular, which allowed 164.7 yards, more than any other unit. Our prediction is that they will face a bigger challenge now than they did in Week 16 when the Texans faced the Browns for the first time. The reason for this is C.J. Stroud. If Stroud gets just a little more time to showcase his playmakers, he will attack these matchups. It’s also interesting to note that while Cleveland’s defense only allowed an average of 21.3 points over the course of the season, they conceded an average of 29.6 points on the road!

Key Players:

• QB: Joe Flacco
• RB: Jerome Ford
• WR: Amari Cooper
• TE: David Njoku
• K: Dustin Hopkins

Houston Texans – Cleveland Browns head-to-head / H2H record

In the first meeting, the home team’s playmaker was missing due to injury, leaving Houston without a chance on Christmas Eve. In the duel, both teams mainly moved the ball through the air, as the statistics of 585 passing yards to 126 rushing yards clearly show. However, the 36-22 score somewhat belies the dominance of the Browns defense in the game, as the Texans moved the ball for a total of 106 yards on their first nine offensive series. The only seven points – until seven minutes to go – came from a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown by Pierce. It wasn’t until garbage time with 7:36 remaining that the Texans scored two touchdowns and a successful onside kick.

Houston Texans – Cleveland Browns Tip

Given the course of the game and the result of the first match and the fact that the home side can now probably attack more in the passing game than three weeks ago, we think the point spread is too low. That’s why, in the first of six wildcard games, we’re going to pick the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns to crack it.

The fact that the visitors are favorites by 2.5 points seems justified when you consider where these teams are in their development. The quarterback experience also speaks very clearly in Cleveland’s favor, because while Flacco already has a Super Bowl victory (2013) to his name, Stroud is in his first NFL year. Nevertheless, we do not believe that the duel will be as clear-cut as the first meeting, so we are also tempted by the option of giving the home side a handicap of 3.5 points to help them win the game. In our eyes, there is even a chance that Houston will beat Cleveland

In terms of touchdown scorers, there are some hot candidates in the Texans vs Browns clash. The odds for the usual suspects – Collins and Schultz on the home side and Cooper and Njoku on the away side – also offer some great value. With so many playmakers, however, it is difficult to make a decision and so our final tip is that at least five touchdowns will be scored in the game