Will the Oilers stay alive in the series?
Sometimes you don’t get lucky and then you get unlucky. That’s how the Oilers feel right now after their third loss in the third game of the series against the Colorado Avalanche. Everything that could go against Edmonton went against them on Saturday night.
They gave themselves the equaliser in the first period in the person of Darnell Nurse, then they hit the post in the third period and in the direct counterattack they caught the decisive 2:3. 23 penalty minutes did the rest to ultimately lose out.
Is this it for the Canadians’ Stanley Cup dreams? To put it pragmatically: yes. Only four times in the long history of the NHL has a team rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win the series. Against these strong Avs – almost unthinkable.
Still, the Oilers won’t bury their heads in the sand or the ice. They want to get at least one more home win, although it seems questionable whether that will actually happen. For Oilers vs. Avs, our prediction for Game 4 is a fourth win for the Avalanche, which would close the bag on them.
Edmonton Oilers – Statistics & current form
It’s just not meant to be for the Oilers in this series. Some things are very reminiscent of the Lightning’s series against the Panthers in the previous round, where the Bolts simply had the right answer to every Panthers attempt.
The final result then: 4:0 for Tampa Bay. It could be similar for Edmonton vs. Colorado, as the Avs are currently in top form mentally. Both defensively and offensively they have everything under control.
Oilers always late at the crucial moments
That the Oilers look a little more mentally tired than the Avs can be seen in several factors. Darnell Nurse’s own goal was just the beginning, but already the 23 penalty minutes in this game show that the Canadiens often only knew how to fight back with unfair means.
In total, the Oilers are already at 43 penalty minutes in this series. In comparison, the Avalanche have only 14 – a difference of 29 minutes, which also costs a lot of energy in a shorthanded situation.
Weak points decide the series
It’s always amazing that a team with two of the best individual players in the world still clearly loses out in the end. But hockey is more than just an individual sport and the weakest players decide the games.
They are to be found in the Oilers’ line-up – mainly in defence. Nurse takes too many shots, Barrie is simply too slow and Russell is one of the best shot blockers in the league, but nothing more.
The Oilers also concede an average of 3.53 goals per game, 0.84 more than the Avs. For Oilers vs. Avalanche, betting on the away team is the most playable betting option for Game 4.
Key Players:
G: Mike Smith
D: Darnell Nurse
D: Cody Ceci
LW: Evander Kane
C: Connor McDavid
RW: Leon Draisaitl
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
It’s on and by now there are hardly any experts who don’t believe that the Avalanche will advance. The only question is whether the Avs will clinch it on Monday in Edmonton or two days later at home in Denver.
The way the first three games have gone, we’d rather go with the first option. The men from the Mile High City were too dominant in Edmonton. Also in Game 3 they won the shooting duel very clearly with 43:29.
Kadri is out for the rest of the series
There is, however, one downer for the big favourites to win the Stanley Cup. Nazem Kadri, who has been in great form lately, injured himself in the first period of Game 3 and will not be able to play in this series.
This might even endanger the first finals, which would be a clear weakening. But even without Kadri, the Avs were a force offensively. Mikko Rantanen alone fired an incredible eight shots at the Oilers goal. More than McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins combined.
Which bets have the greatest value?
Which leaves us with the question of which bets on Colorado are the most promising for Monday. With Edmonton vs. Colorado, the odds on victory are still so high that we do not need to add a handicap.
Nevertheless, the first games have already shown that a handicap of -1.5 is still very effective. Above all, odds of up to 3.00 can be picked up with it.
Key Players:
G: Pavel Francouz
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Edmonton Oilers – Colorado Avalanche Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Meanwhile, the goal-shot ratio is 122:87 in favour of the Avalanche. That is not always decisive, but in this case it gives a clear direction. Especially since the goals with 16:8 speak a clear language.
Of course, Game 3 could have gone the other way if Bouchard’s shot against the post in the third period had been a few millimetres more accurate. But that’s exactly the kind of effectiveness the Oilers have been lacking all series.
Will that change in Game 4? It’s not likely that Edmonton will get off more shots than Colorado on Monday. So with Oilers vs Avs, the odds on the Avalanche are once again our favoured option.
Edmonton Oilers – Colorado Avalanche Tip
Will the Avalanche go through the Conference Finals with a sweep? It would definitely suit them to have more rest and also to get the injured players (e.g. Kadri) fit again. In that respect, they will not let up.
If they perform with the same intensity as in the first three games, we don’t give the Oilers much of a chance. Thus, for Edmonton vs. Colorado, a bet on the away team is our No. 1 bet, followed by a handicap tip Avalanche -1.5.
Alternatively, point bets on individual players are also possible. Especially Mikko Rantanen is hot in this series so far with three goals and two assists.
