Will the Lions sweep their division rivals off the field?
There are currently only three teams in the entire NFL with a record of 7:2 or 8:1. One of them is the Detroit Lions, who have become a Super Bowl contender over the course of this season. The offense around quarterback Jared Goff in particular is working extremely well, which was also evident in last week’s 41-38 win over the Chargers. In their next divisional clash against Chicago, Detroit will be keen to confirm their positive impressions and extend their lead at the top of the NFC North table.
Head coach Dan Campbell’s team is the favorite ahead of Sunday night’s 7:00 p.m. matchup at Ford Field. If you want to place a bet on the expected home win between the Lions and the Bears, you can get just 1.28 at the top. Meanwhile, a 4.20 is on offer for a surprise win for the visitors from the “Windy City”, which is partly due to the fact that the Bears have already turned their focus back to the off-season and had to bury virtually all (slim) playoff hopes in the National Football Conference (NFC) once again prematurely
At least Chicago can look forward to the return of quarterback Justin Fields, who is expected to make his comeback from injury this weekend. Compared to Tyson Bagent, Fields is a stronger prospect, but the 24-year-old first-round pick from 2021 has not yet made the transition to an elite playmaker either. Everything points to Detroit landing another, possibly unchallenged, victory and possibly also setting off the next offensive fireworks. Ahead of the Lions’ clash against the Bears, we wouldn’t be afraid to predict a lot of points over the course of the game
Detroit Lions – stats & current form
The Detroit Lions are having a great season so far. While the men from the US state of Michigan narrowly missed out on the playoffs in 2022 with a 9-8 record, the decisive phase in 2023 will definitely involve the protégés of head coach Dan Campbell. At the moment, the Lions are even in a two-way battle for the first seed in the NFC. Only the Philadelphia Eagles (8:1) have a better record than Detroit (7:2).
For the upcoming match against Chicago, the NFC North leaders will once again rely on their sensational passing offense. With over 2500 yards thrown, Jared Goff is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL to date. 14 touchdowns are offset by a respectable equivalent of five interceptions. In the last five games, four of which Detroit won, the 29-year-old former No. 1 pick was even able to push his rating up again
The Lions offense is hard to figure out
In our eyes, the strong passing offense is one of the reasons why we are looking at the odds of a relatively clear home win for the Lions against the Bears on Sunday night. While Detroit ranks second in the league in total yards per game and also has a top five passing attack, Chicago’s pass defense is a real weakness. The CHI secondary is allowing almost 250 yards per game through the air. This suggests that the receiver cast around Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynold and Sam LaPorta can make some big plays.
However, once the defense concentrates on the passing game, the Lions’ equally good running game comes into its own. Here too, the NFC North leaders are ranked in the top five in the league and have two outstanding running back weapons on their roster in former Bears player Montgomery and rookie Gibbs.
The latter in particular has impressed of late, scoring at least one touchdown in three consecutive matches (four in total) and even running the egg into the end zone twice in the previous week against the LA Chargers. We therefore also check the odds for a touchdown from Jahmyr Gibbs between the Lions and the Bears
Key players for the Detroit Lions:
- QB: Jared Goff
- RB: David Montgomery
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
- WR: Amon-Ra. St. Brown
- TE: Sam LaPorta
- K: Riley Patterson
Chicago Bears – stats & current form
After ten completed matchdays, the Chicago Bears have once again become disillusioned. After a disastrous 2022 season with three wins and 14 (!) defeats, the franchise had actually set its sights high for the new season. However, head coach Matt Eberflus’ team has not yet been able to live up to the increased expectations. Although they have already equaled the number of wins from the previous season, the franchise from the “Windy City” is once again last in the NFC North and without any playoff hopes.
To make matters worse, Chicago has been without quarterback Justin Fields for the past week, who last took the field in mid-October but is now set to make his comeback after recovering from injury. Fields, who has been showered with praise in the National Football League, is definitely an upgrade over backup Tyson Bagent, although the backup QB, who previously only played Division II in college, was able to provide his team with a sense of achievement last weekend. However, the narrow 16-13 win over the league’s weakest franchise from Carolina was once again not a highlight or a letter of recommendation.
Will the Bears be beaten again?
With this in mind, it is virtually impossible to predict a surprise coup for the underdog on Sunday between the Lions and the Bears. In addition to the fact that the bottom team in the NFC North has lost four out of five away games so far this season, the sometimes heavy defeats also speak for themselves.
Five of the seven defeats were by a double-digit margin. They lost 10:41 to the top team in the Kansas City Chiefs, 20:40 to the Commanders from Washington and 13:30 to the LA Chargers. So when CHI loses, it is often by a large margin… This in turn favors our idea of a handicap bet in favor of the favorite.
So do the statistics, because in addition to the already mentioned defensive weakness against the pass, the Bears are also the team that has been able to put the least pressure on the opposing quarterback so far this season. In total, they have only managed 13 sacks so far! At least that’s what those in charge noticed, who signed Montez Sweat, an elite pass rusher from Washington, shortly before the trade deadline. His presence has already had a positive effect of late, but even Sweat will reach his limits as an individual talent against the Lions’ very good O-line. As a result, Jared Goff will have plenty of time and space in the pocket to make his mostly good decisions and set up his pass receivers in a controlled manner.
Key players for the Chicago Bears:
- QB: Justin Fields
- RB: D’Onta Foreman
- WR: DJ Moore
- WR: Darnell Mooney
- TE: Cole Kmet
- K: Cairo Santos
Detroit Lions – Chicago Bears head-to-head / H2H record
Traditionally, two franchises from the same division always face each other twice a season. The first head-to-head clash of the season awaits us on Sunday between the Lions and the Bears, with the second one taking place on December 10. If we look at last year’s meetings, Detroit came out on top twice. There was a clear 41:10 victory at home and a 31:30 win in Chicago. We expect the Lions to win again on Sunday, but also a points spectacle with possibly 50+ points.
Detroit Lions – Chicago Bears Tip
In week eleven we can look forward to some exciting divisional duels. Among others, the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers will face each other. The Lions and Bears will also meet in the NFC North
It is clear that Detroit is the heavy favorite against Chicago. The home side have won seven of their first nine matches this season, while the visitors have three wins and six defeats from nine encounters. Almost all the statistics speak in favor of the Lions, who have one of the best offenses in the league and have top options both through the air and on the ground to cause problems for all teams in this league. So, of course, do the Bears, who have serious deficiencies in pass defense and pass rush in particular.
We are therefore convinced that Detroit will pull off an unchallenged victory and are forcing a bet between the Lions and the Bears that the Campbell squad will win by at least eight points. Five of Chicago’s seven defeats so far have been by at least double-digit points – and the same could happen again this weekend. We have found a solid 1.90 for the handicap bet (-7.5), which we confidently play with seven out of ten fictitious units