Will the Flames’ defence make the difference again?
“The next goal decides it” is often said towards the end of a game, no matter in which sport. But in the Dallas Stars’ matchup against the Calgary Flames, that adage takes on greater meaning from the first faceoff.
In both previous duels, it was a single goal that made the difference. The fact that there was an empty-netter at the end of Game 2 – forget it. On the whole, we have seen two solid 1-0 games so far. Something that is rare enough in ice hockey.
So again in Game 3 on Saturday, it should come down to not making any unnecessary mistakes to avoid conceding that first goal. Whoever leads 1-0 always wins, could therefore be more true in this series than in any other.
Thus, for Stars vs. Flames, our prediction for the upcoming game is another low-scoring game in which it should be close. Thus, of course, under point bets as well as handicap bets on Dallas are worth a closer look.
Dallas Stars – Statistics & Current Form
The Stars were already an ungrateful opponent in the regular season and they are again with their physical play also or especially in the playoffs. The Flames, who are considered co-favourites, will have to stretch themselves mightily.
With 36 hits and no less than 20 blocked shots, they made life difficult for the Canadians in Game 2 and won the game 2-0 accordingly – despite only 23 shots fired.
Stars with pure defensive tactics
It’s easy to see that the Stars aren’t much concerned with playing quickly and constructively going forward in this matchup. In the first two duels, for example, they only managed 39 shots on goal.
By comparison, the Avalanche took 51 shots in their second game against Nashville. So it’s no surprise that the Stars could only manage one goal in normal play and one empty-netter.
Goaltending is everything
So this series looks like one where, in the end, 80% of it will come down to goaltending and 20% will come down to who can take better advantage of their few chances. So this matchup has almost become a 50-50 affair – which is already a big step forward for Dallas.
Thus, with Stars vs Flames, the odds on Dallas are even to bet right as well. However, there is of course one bet that makes even more sense here and that is betting on subpar points. We think it is very unlikely that more than 5.0 goals will be scored in this matchup.
Key Players:
G: Jake Oettinger
D: Ryan Suter
D: Miro Heiskanen
LW: Jason Robertson
C: Roope Hintz
RW: Joe Pavelski
Calgary Flames – Statistics & current form
The Flames can only live up to their role as favourites to a limited extent so far. Although they lead the shot statistic with 55:39 so far, they haven’t had a lot of clear chances.
That’s why it’s now only 1:1 and the series is suddenly on a knife edge. If the Flames fail in the playoffs this season, they won’t be able to recover from that for years.
Flames without a Plan B to date
In the regular season, the Flames had the third-best defence in the entire NHL, conceding 2.51 goals per game. They are throwing that strength into the ring again now. The only problem is that the opponents simply don’t play along.
This is where the Canadians’ great weaknesses become apparent: creating their own big chances against deep and hard-checking teams. And in games that come down to a 1-0 score, something can always happen and a disc can slip in the back.
Without offence, no Stanley Cup
If the motto “Offense wins Games – Defence wins Championships” usually applies, the Flames are taking it to absurdity. Without a few more goals, they won’t even make it past the first round. 0.5 goals per game so far are simply subterranean.
Since the two previous games took place in Calgary, we don’t see much hope for them to suddenly turn up the heat away from home. So for Dallas vs. Calgary, in addition to a bet on under points, we also recommend a bet on under 3.5 Flames goals.
Key Players:
G: Jacob Marktstrom
D: Noah Hanifin
D: Rasmus Andersson
LW: Johnny Gaudreau
C: Elias Lindholm
RW: Matthew Tkachuk
Dallas Stars – Calgary Flames Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
The all-time series between these two teams is on track to be one of the lowest-scoring in NHL history. The minus record in a best-of-7 series to date is a total of ten goals (2002/2003 Ducks vs. Wild).
This record could even be broken if the two teams continue to play like this. This is somewhat contradicted by the regular season, in which an average of 6.3 goals were scored in this matchup this season. However, this number is not even close to being reached in the playoffs.
Therefore, odds on under 5.0 goals are our clear betting recommendation for Dallas against Calgary, followed by underdog bets on the Stars. Their odds of up to 3.05 are excellent because anything is possible in low-scoring games.
Dallas Stars – Calgary Flames Tip
The Flames have to be careful not to let this series degenerate into a pure low scoring series. Because then the odds quickly approach 50-50, which they can’t want. They are considered the slight favourites again on Saturday, but only marginally.
So a tip on Dallas is possible for Stars vs. Flames, even if this naturally involves a little risk. In any case, it would be safer to bet on under 5.0 total points. With so few total shots, they should not be reached even on the weekend.
An alternative in this Game 3 of the series is also a bet on under 3.5 goals, because Flames.
