Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals – Who will go first?
Stanley Cup Finals – Here we go! For the third year in a row, these take place with the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are also the double defending champions. However, they are not favourites in this series, despite their impressive comeback against the New York Rangers.
They were able to defeat the Rangers 4-2 after trailing the series 0-2, which means that both Stanley Cup participants now have four consecutive victories in their baggage. That hasn’t happened in ages either.
The Colorado Avalanche have not only been favourites since their clear 4-0 win over the Oilers. They have marched through the postseason in too dominant a fashion, with their offence particularly impressive. 4.64 goals per game is by far the best value of all teams.
However, the Lightning can counter that with the second-best defence in the playoffs (2.41 goals against per game), which makes the whole series exciting. For Game 1 of Colorado vs. Tampa, our prediction is thus a game of equals, which we would even rate at 50:50.
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
The Colorado Avalanche are back in the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2001. Back then, they also won the Cup in the end with a 4:3 against the New Jersey Devils. The duel between Colorado and Tampa Bay is the first time the two teams have met in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Even during the regular season, the two teams traditionally don’t meet very often – the different conferences make sure of that. In each of the past four years there has only been one duel (3:1 for Colorado).
Few direct comparisons in the last few years
This doesn’t make things any easier for either coach. Not many “adjustments” can be made compared to previous games and both teams have to rely on their own strengths first.
These are Tampa’s defence and Colorado’s offence. With 65 goals already, the Avalanche have not only scored the most of any team, but also a whopping 13 more goals than the Bolts – and that with three games less. Offensively, they should therefore be superior to their rivals.
Defence wins Championships
The problem for the Avs, however, is that it’s rarely the offenses that end up winning a Stanley Cup, it’s usually the defenses. They are still good with 2.86 goals against per game, but still 0.45 goals against per game worse than Tampa Bay.
This could tip the scales in their favour in the series. Last year, the Lighting beat the Canadiens 5:1 in Game 1 – also with a strong defensive performance.
So we don’t expect a high-scoring opener this year either, which should basically suit the league. The odds on Tampa are also slightly better for the Avalanche against the Bolts, as the oddsmakers surprisingly see the Avs very clearly ahead.
Key Players:
G: Pavel Francouz
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
Tampa Bay Lightning – Statistics & current form
4:2 after 0:2 – and further proof of the heart of a champion. The Tampa Bay Lightning have been simply unbeatable in the postseason for over two years now, and they will now go into the duel with the Avs with that attitude.
The fact that they are considered the clear underdogs from the outset should actually suit them. This underdog status is a perfect match for their preferred defensive tactics, which should be based on quick counters.
Bolts in top form at the right time
Three months ago the Bolts didn’t look like they were going to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals again, but a lot has happened in their game since then. Defensively in particular, Tampa Bay has been able to tighten the reins once again, lowering their goals against average from 2.78 to 2.41.
That 0.37 fewer goals against then immediately elevates them from an average playoff team (No.5 seed in the East) to one of the top seeds. The newfound confidence will then add to that.
Axis Vasilevskiy – Hedman – Kucherov decisive
But for the Lightning to turn that confidence into their third Cup win in a row, they will need another performance boost. Above all, the leaders of the individual team parts are needed. Starting with Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal.
With a save percentage of 92.8%, he is one of the best goalies of the playoffs and is clearly ahead of his counterpart Francouz (90.6%). We see Tampa ahead at this position, which also applies to the defence.
The Avs have an absolute top man on the ice there with Cale Makar, but we rate the group around Hedman, Sergachev and Cernak slightly better as an overall package. The situation is different in the forwards, of course.
Offense must keep up with Colorado
No other team can beat Nathan MacKinnon’s Avs there. But if any crew can do it, it’s the experienced Kucherov, Stamkos and Palat. Despite a MacKinnon, these three players make up what we consider the best forward line in the NHL.
So for the Bolts, the main thing is to keep up offensively, because they have the edge in the other parts of the team anyway. For Avalanche vs. Lightning, a bet on Tampa is therefore not out of the question, even if they are considered the clear underdogs. For that very reason, we get excellent value.
Key Players:
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy
D: Victor Hedman
D: Jan Rutta
LW: Ondrej Palat
C: Brayden Point
RW: Nikita Kucherov
Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning United States
As mentioned earlier, this duel doesn’t happen very often in the NHL – just four duels in the last four years. In that span, it’s 3-1 per Colorado. If we go back a little bit, however, the Lightning are 6-4 in the last ten games.
That won’t help us much in assessing this final series. The key here will be to make better use of the momentum that both teams have. Maybe it’s a small advantage that Tampa’s last game was only four days ago, Colorado’s nine.
Since four days is also more than enough time for regeneration, the Avs might already be a little rusty with so much rest. This wouldn’t be the first time this has happened in NHL history, so for Colorado vs. Tampa, the odds on the Bolts are a good underdog pick.
Colorado Avalanche – Tampa Bay Lightning Tip
The Lightning are still in the flow, whereas the Avs need to catch fire. That leaves everything open for Game 1. Such first games of a Finals series rarely go as predicted. The Bolts can tell you a thing or two about that from their 2020 Finals.
Back then, they were favourites to lose the first game at home to Dallas – they should take that as a warning now. We can well imagine this scenario and see a tip on Tampa as a very good betting option for Avs vs. Lightning.
Betting alternatives, however, are subpar points in Game 1. Since first games are often marked by restraint, we see Under 6.0 total goals as a number that is unlikely to be reached.
