Must the Packers finally bury their playoff dreams?
The end of the regular season in the NFL is slowly looming on the horizon and for the two teams facing off in Charlotte on Sunday, the season will probably come to an end on January 7, 2024. While this has already been clear for the home side for several weeks, the visitors have suffered major setbacks in the battle for the play-offs over the last two matchdays. We are of course talking about the clash between the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers, where a bet on the favored visitors is unfortunately anything but appealing
The jubilant crowd suggested that Carolina had just punched its ticket to the postseason. Yet the team of interim head coach Chris Tabor was only celebrating its second win of the season. This came last week in a 9:7 win against division rivals Atlanta, with which the North Carolina franchise probably also destroyed the Falcons’ play-off dreams
Destroyed playoff dreams is a good keyword, because the Wisconsin team’s chances also sank last week. Due to the clear defeat against the Buccaneers – who, like Carolina, are based in the NFC South – their chances are now only 26 percent. As a result, they have slipped from seventh to eleventh place in the National Football League rankings. Nevertheless, the balance of power between the Panthers and Packers is clear and the odds on the markets suggest as much.
Carolina Panthers – stats & current form
As in the first win of the season, it was kicker Eddy Pinero who clinched the victory with a game-winning field goal. And against an opponent from their own division, this victory tasted even better. Offensively, the performance – as the nine points show – was of course anything but optimal. In contrast, however, the defensive side shone. Never before in this season has this unit conceded so few points
A positive prognosis hardly possible
The game-winning drive in which 1st-overall pick and quarterback Bryce Young led his team 85 yards down the field definitely deserves a mention. Other than that, however, moments of brilliance in this offense are few and far between. There is still a lot of patchwork in the passing game. Only 167 passing yards have been achieved recently, which is pretty much the average of 164.9 yards recorded by this offense. Only one team in the league is behind them in this statistic. Young has just nine touchdown passes and the unit has a total of 19 successful end zone visits. There are players in the NFL who have more touchdowns on their own.
The only reliable target is Adam Thielen, who averages just under 64 receiving yards. Young has thrown to him 120 times this season and rookie Jonathan Mingo ranks behind him in the internal ranking with 81 targets. Chuba Hubbard, who is not only the team’s rushing leader but also contributed six points four times, gives the running game at least a reasonable baseline. Will he be successful again between the Panthers and Packers? We don’t dare to make a prediction, but we think he will have a good game against the weak run defense.
Defensively, the team from Charlotte should by no means be underestimated, as only two teams – the Ravens and the Browns – allow their opponents fewer yards on average. They have their good passing defense to thank for that. Nevertheless, 24.9 points allowed are too many to cushion the often sluggish offensive performance.
Key Players:
- QB: Bryce Young
- RB: Chuba Hubbard
- WR: Adam Thielen
- TE: Hayden Hurst
- K: Eddy Pineiro
Green Bay Packers – stats & current form
In a direct comparison of the defensive units, the visitors’ perform significantly worse and that is quite surprising, as Green Bay has put a lot of resources into this personnel group in recent years. The criticism of defensive coordinator Joe Barry is getting louder and louder and the duel against Tampa Bay was grist to the critics’ mill. For one thing, the team allowed the opposition to move the ball well on the ground at “Lambeau Field” and for another, they were repeatedly beaten through the air. Never before had a visiting team quarterback achieved a perfect passer rating at legendary Packers Stadium until Baker Mayfield did it last week.
Next meltdown game for the defense?
The passing defense certainly hasn’t been the Wisconsin franchise’s weak spot so far, but 381 passing yards allowed last week show that this unit is vulnerable there as well. Of course, the fact that the home side doesn’t have the same quality at the receiver position as the Bucs will play into Green Bay’s hands in the upcoming matchup. Our tip between the Panthers and Packers is therefore that the defense will perform better again.
And offensively? At first glance, the statistics look mediocre, but if you look at the direct comparison, this offense has more firepower than that of the upcoming opponent. Quarterback Jordan Love has stabilized in recent weeks and with him the entire offensive department. The 25 passing touchdowns already thrown also indicate that the young offense has already made significant strides forward this season. The three receivers Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs – all aged 23 and 24 respectively – each already have over 400 receiving yards and a total of 18 touchdowns to their name. Once Watson is fit again, it will be a mammoth task for the good Carolina defense.
The season has been particularly disappointing for running back Aaron Jones so far. Injuries have prevented him from really getting into his stride and his backup, AJ Dillon, has never been able to fully fill the gap. Against Tampa Bay, Jones was the lone back in the backfield due to Dillon’s injury and was therefore well involved in the running and passing game.
Key Players:
- QB: Jordan Love
- RB: Aaron Jones
- WR: Romeo Doubs
- TE: Tucker Kraft
- K: Anders Carlson
Carolina Panthers – Green Bay Packers head-to-head / H2H record
When the offenses of both teams are compared, a clear picture emerges: 14.7 vs. 21.4 points. It is not quite as clear on the defensive side, where Carolina – as already mentioned – allows 24.9 and Green Bay 21.5 points on average. Considering these conditions, the visitors’ role as favorites is of course justified! At the playmaker position, the difference is also not as great as might be expected, because although Bryce Young was drafted three years after Jordan Love, both are in their first year as starting quarterbacks in the NFL. That Love has the better circumstances with his team – i.e. offensive line, offensive scheme and playmaker – is probably undisputed and that is also why he is currently the better quarterback.
Carolina Panthers – Green Bay Packers Tip
And because old football wisdom says that the team with the better quarterback should be favored in the event of an even game, we are also taking this route. At bookmaker bet3000, we’re backing the visitors to win by at least five points and find attractive odds of 1.85 on the Carolina Panthers hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Despite the predicted victory of the visitors, a bet on a touchdown by Chuba Hubbard smiles at us. The running back, who is also always wanted in the passing game, just seems like a good matchup for the Panthers vs. Packers. With odds above the 2.00 mark, this recommendation also offers good value
